AVAXUSD Bottom formed & going for the ultimate bullish breakout.Avalanche (AVAXUSD) has just touched this week the top of the 6-month Channel Down. In cyclical terms, this is just a big Bull Flag half-way through the Bull Cycle, similar to those of the previous one, in August - November 2020 and March - June 2021.
The Cycle's 2nd bottom is in being doubt as the RSI held and rebounded on the 40.00 Symmetrical Support, which held and kick started the post June 2021 bottom rally. The only confirmation left to give us is to break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since late July.
As you can see both of 2020 - 2021 Bull Flags rebounded aggressively reaching the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result once the 1W MA50 breaks, we expect a similar rally on AVAX, whether more aggressive like 2020 or marginally less like 2021, but our Target is at $250.00 (Fib 2.0 and above the All Time High).
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Avaxusdsignals
AVAXUSD Bottom formation in process. Target $105.007 months ago we published the following analysis (December 14 2023, see chart below), expecting Avalanche (AVAXUSD), to correct back to the 1.0 Fibonacci level after a potential $55.00 hit:
As you can see the price action didn't fail to deliver our projection, in fact it followed very tightly the February - July 2021 pre-rally pattern of the previous Bull Cycle. Right now it has found Support on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), while the 1W RSI is on the exact Support level it was on the June 21 2021 bottom.
Even though a marginal decline is possible to satisfy the past condition of slightly breaking below the 0.5 Fib, the current levels are good enough to buy again for the long-term.
As in November 2021, our Target is again the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, which is currently just above the $105.00 Resistance.
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AVAXUSD $104 is the minimum target on this run.Avalanche (AVAXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the October 19 2023 Low and at the moment is halfway through its 2nd Bullish Leg of the sequence. So far it has been replicating to a fair extent the previous Leg, trading above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which shouldn't be touched again before the next peak.
If it continues to repeat the sequence, then we can see $155 as a peak (Higher High), since the previous leg topped at around +470% from the bottom. We take a more conservative target however, aiming for the April 02 2022 High at $104.
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AVAXUSD $55.00 is on the cards but then expect correction.Avalanche (AVAXUSD) hit all of our targets during November's run (see chart below) and even broke above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time ever:
This resembles the incredible rally of January 2021, even though it has been executed during a different time period of the global Cycle. Nonetheless, one last spike to the 1.786 Fibonacci to make a February 08 2021 type High, is expected (target = $55.00) but then most likely the market will correct back to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). After that, our long-term target will be 105.00 (Resistance 1).
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AVAXUSD Targets achieved. What's next?Avalanche (AVAXUSD) hit today our final (2nd) target of 15.5000 as we proposed on the bullish break-out signal we gave (see chart below) on October 04:
The question is, does this rally still have fuel in it or it will correct now? A reliable indicator in this case is the 1D MACD which, while the crypto has been inside the Channel Down pattern, it peaked both times just below 2.0000. This peak was confirmed only after a Bearish Cross. As a result, this rally still has room to go higher and the strongest Target (1) is the top of the top of the (dashed) final Channel Down that remains valid at 21.500. A break above Resistance 1 (22.9000) could also deliver a test of the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) at 26.000, but it is very doubtful to see a greater extension without a meaningful pull-back first.
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AVAXUSD Ready for a bullish break-outAvalanche (AVAXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern for the past 6 months and is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The same kind of test after a 1D RSI Bullish Divergence was performed in AVAX's previous Channel Down on January 09 2023. Observe the perfect symmetry on the RSI levels of the two dates. When the price closed above the 1D MA50, it initiated a massive rise on the next candle that easily broke through the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and peaked a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we will buy the break-out and initially target the 1D MA100 at 11.000. If it breaks above the 1D MA200, we will buy that 2nd break-out and target the 0.616 Fib at 15.500.
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AVAXUSD is the closest to its 1D MA200 it's been since April!Avalanche (AVAXUSD) is about to hit its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 11 2022! Needless to say, a break-out there would be a major long-term bullish signal for the coin.
With AVAX trading within a Channel Up since the February 2021 High, we can see that the best Sell entry and (potentially now) best Buy entry have come around its +0.236 and -0.236 Fibonacci extension (extreme) levels respectively. Those extremes have both come after the 1D RSI went deep into a Bearish and Bullish Divergence respectively. On the November 21 2021 High, while AVAX was rising on Higher Highs, the RSI was falling on Lower Highs, hence a Bearish Divergence, indicating loss of strength on the trend. Similarly on the December 30 2022 Low, while AVAX was falling on Lower Lows, the RSI was rising on Higher Lows, hence a Bullish Divergence, indicating a weakening bearish trend.
In both cases, the breaking of the 1D MA200 was the confirmation of trend reversal. And since in late January 2022 after the 1D MA200 bearish break-out, AVAX bounced back on the short-term above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before making the deep collapse, we expect this time also after the 1D MA200 bullish break-out to pull-back on the medium-term before starting to fill the upper Fibonacci levels of the Channel Up one by one in the new Bull Cycle.
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AVAXUSDT Multiple bullish break-outs call for a higher target!*** ***
For this particular analysis on Avalanche we are using the AVAXUSDT symbol on the OKX exchange.
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The idea is on the 1D time-frame where AVAX recently broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), following an additional bullish break above the Lower Highs trend-line that started with the April 02 High. With the RSI on the 1W time-frame still on oversold territory, this is a major bullish signal on Avalanche on multiple break-outs.
The last time we had a break above the 1D MA50 on an oversold state, was on July 26 2021 and the huge rally of August - November started. The short-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and then the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up that started in June.
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AVAXUSD Re-testing the 1D MA50. Breakout and rejection scenariosAvalanche (AVAXUSD) is recovering from the recent rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week. That would be the third attempt that close to the MA50 in 3 weeks and with the 1D LMACD on a strong rise, it appears it could be the decisive one to break it.
In fact the same LMACD sequence was last spotted in July 2021, a year ago, when the price eventually broke above the 1D MA50 and initiated an extremely strong rally. Now with the general crypto market attempting to find a bottom on this Bear Cycle, such a rally would be difficult to re-create yet but the Fibonacci retracement levels within this long-term Channel Up can help us set some short/ medium-term targets leading eventually to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
On the downside, if the price gets rejected again and breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line (Fib 0.0), it can go for a Bearish extreme near the -0.236 Fib, similar to the Bullish extreme at 1.236 Fib that shaped the top of the market on November 22 2021.
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AVAXUSD hit the Channel Up bottom. Levels to watch.Avalanche (AVAXUSD) hit on May 12 the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up that started after its February 10 2021 High. That was its first High and May 12 marked its second Higher Lows. Assuming that holds, the pattern will continue to hold and we will have to look for specific markers in order to time a new uptrend.
As you see, there are three indicators that broke in a specific order during the last rise to a Higher High. First the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) following the Higher Low consolidation. Then the RSI on the 1W time-frame crossed above its MA. Finally the 1W MACD made a Bullish Cross. Keep an eye on those conditions and plan a potential buy strategy accordingly.
On the other hand, a weekly (1W) candle closing below the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up, can set in motion the lower Fibonacci extensions, namely the -0.236 and -0.382 before the market bottoms out.
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AVAXUSD close to starting a rally to $250.00Avalanche (AVAXUSD) has been trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past week, ever since the pull-back from the April 02 High. Even though that rattled the confidence of many market participants, there is no cause for concern as this was a short-term profit-taking correction within the larger Rising Wedge pattern on the long-term.
The coin is coming off an Accumulation Phase similar to those of June - July 2021 and October - December 2020. The 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting for the past 8 months and the 1D LMACD is approaching a Bullish Cross formation. This is a bullish indicator mix, familiar with the previous Rise phases that led to Higher Highs on the Rising Wedge.
The next Higher High is expected to be close to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. We set a $250.00 long-term target on AVAX.
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AVAXUSD Cycles with SineWaves. Is it accumulation at the bottom?Avalanche has been one of the surprises of 2021 and despite the market correction since November, it is seen consolidating in rage. I've spotted an interesting cyclical behavior of AVAX, which can provide a fairly accurate pattern to long-term investors.
As you see it is going through phases of accumulation - rise - sell off. There is an underlying Fibonacci Channel that is supporting its long-term uptrend since the September 2020 market bottom.
I've applied the Sine Waves for a better understanding of AVAX's cyclical behavior and as you see it shows that we may be currently half-way through the new Accumulation Phase. The 1D CCI hit last week its long-term Support Zone and has been rebounding since. Such hit and rebound sequences are only seen during AVAX's accumulation phases. Based on that pattern, it is possible to start seeing the new Rise Phase towards the end of February but if you have a long-term investor mind-set, this model shows that Accumulations are done on market bottoms, so the time to buy is now as if the rest of the market rises before, AVAXUSD should follow.
The next target for a Higher High is the 1.5 Fibonacci extension around $315.00.
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AVAXUSD Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on the 1D time-frame.
Signal: Buy as the price is A) holding the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Up, B) holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and C) holding the 6-month CCI Support Zone.
Target: $200 (just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and Higher High trend-line of the Channel Up).
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