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Bankofengland

#GBPUSD: Final Roadmap! Target 1.5040, critical support 1.3450OANDA:GBPUSD Observations 1)The roadmap is clear now. This pullback can push GBP$ as low as 1.33s and still, we are in a good position to add longs. 2)Bank of England may not hike rates, but who cares! TVC:DXY could recover back to 94s and it wouldn't matter as it eventually has to drift lower towards 74s. 3)Any GBP$ weakness translates into a 'load the boat' opportunity. Proxy OANDA:EURGBP sell into any price close to 93s (2017's High) targeting BofAML short bottom in 2018; 83s. "Never risk the house for pennies."
Long
by josericaurte.jaen
gbp/usd retracement methodMarket on the 1 day timeframe looks very promising for a resurgence of the pound to go trending up as well due to bank of England raising the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50% which was done to meet inflation rates. Higher interest rate means higher exchange rate cause people are willing to exchange their currency to GBP to add on interest. This also fits with the retracements shown on analysis and every time the market retraced at those moments, it shot up forming a clean candlestick most of the time. I'm hoping it will shoot up one more time so I can set a Buy Stop just roughly 10 pips above current market and ride it through until first resistance. Use 1d for analysis and lower time frames to double check and to initialise and place an order.
Long
by chiefcapitalfx
Short GBPCAD - Anticipating Dissappointing GBP News FlowMy statistical studies shows that GBP hard data release today is likely to be dissapointed. CAD will also have somewhat dissapointed data in my opinion, however relatively it will have the smallest "dissapoinment gap" amongst the Majors. In addition, today we will have 2 speeches coming out from MPC Member Broadbent and the BOE Governor Carney, both of whom has sent the GBP lower during their previous speech. Positioning wise: retails are shorting GBP with the most significant Short being GBPUSD and GBPJPY. For CAD, CAD is also net shorted with CADJPY the most shorted. I am already in and I do intend to hold this trade all the way today unless stopped out. My SL is 1.676 and there is no major TP (some interested technical level would be 1.665 and 1.660). Of course I may adjust throughout the days as the news are released.
Short
by vietbach1990
GBPUSD SHORT: DOVISH BOE M. CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUG CUTIMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" - all of which infer that an August cut is very much on the cards - especially given that the BOE has been relatively neutral as yet, whilst they have increased the offering of interbank funding by a few £100bn, apart from that the BOE is yet to make any moves in conventional policy tools, which member/ market expects the BOE to do e.g. a Bank Rate cut and/or formal QE. I personally am short GBP$ at these levels (see attached posts), and these comments from today have certainly reinforced my position given their dovishness, even more so when combined with yesterdays minutes which said "most MPC members expect to loosen policy in August" and "detailed analysis of all available policy tools is required" - both of which go hand as 1) they want to make sure they analyse the economy properly, which takes time (July too soon) yet all members expect August to be enough time to conclude/ act upon such analysis. Not to mention, given bank forecast a median GBP$ price of somewhere near 1.225, being short in the 1.30+ imo is certainly probabilistically favourable, especially if you are able to execute close to the Post-brexit highs of 1.35 which has held as solid resistance and imo should do for the foreseeable future given we traded to lows of 1.38 before brexit so 1.35 is very expensive post brexit. Further, the median bank forecast was for a 25bps cut in the bank rate in July (with some calling for 40-50bps), so if that was the case in July, given BOE didnt deliver, this only increases the chances of a cut in August which imo will take GBP$ to 1.25xx. USD demand increasing - Federal Funds Rate Implied PDF prices: Also, on the USD side, demand is increasing which compounds the GBP$ short support, as the Fed Funds Rate implied hike probabilities are continuing to steepen. For example, since yesterday, the implied probability of a September/ November hike has increased from 12%/12% to 19.5%/20.8% - with, for the first time, a 50bps hike being priced at 0.4%/0.8% respectively; Decemeber's probability also steepened to its highest level post brexit to 40% from 33.7%, 50bps at 7.5% from 3.4% and 75bps for the first time at 0.3%. This aggressive steepening in the rate/ probability curve is likely a function of the risk-on market we are in (SPX 4 new highs in a row), with 10y rates rallying TNX, averaging +4% every day this week. Further, I think the FOMC speakers comments which have 80% been hawkish this week has also increased confidence. Gov Mark Carney Speech Highlights - Monetary Policy Cannot Do Everything To Counter The Impact Of The Referendum - MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead - BoE July Minutes, ''Broadly Consistent With My Personal View.'' - The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' - Far Too Early To Draw Strong Conclusions On Precise Path Of The UK Economy - UK Economy Is Unlikely To Crash, It Is Likely To Slow - A Sharp Fall In Currency Rate Will Provide A Shot In The Arm To The UK’s Net Exports - More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks - Past Few Weeks Have Generated Considerable Uncertainty Around UK Economy, Policy & Politics - Monetary Policy Should Stand Ready To Move In Either Direction - Brexit Has Increased Materially The Degree Of Uncertainty - Some Of This Uncertainty May Dissipate, But A Good Chunk Is Likely To Linger Over Next 2-Yrs - Uncertainty To Weigh On Domestic Spending By Both Companies & Households For Foreseeable Future - The Amount Of Slack In The UK Economy Is Likely To Steadily Rise
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
GBP/USD - Breakout. It is difficult currency to predict at the moment. The BoE are meeting on Thursday, where they are expected to lower interest rates; this could see the GBP slump towards 1.25, as per all the economists are forecasting. Anyways, at the moment you can classify the pair to be in a rectangle and a wedge shape; if the wedge breaks bullish, then the resistance will be 1.301 (the top of the rectangle), likewise if the wedge breaks bearish support will be at the 1.2891 level.
by Coneyhull
EURGBP to Push Lower After Wedge RetestIf price closes underneath the combination of support, traders will search out The U.S. dollar’s upward momentum quickly faded, following Wednesday’s FOMC minutes which suggested a December rate hike was “back on the table.” Traders were likely booking profits after the spike higher in the dollar index, which has caused dollar pair counterparts to advance into the weekend. The greenback advance tested, and failed at, price resistance at 97.80. The euro was able to rebound modestly after the downright shellacking it took following comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi that more quantitative easing and interest rate adjusts can be made when needed. However, the pound greatly surpassed gains made by other currencies against the general dollar weakness. I have said previously, even mentioned it to Pedro da Costa (Editorial Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics), that the Bank of England’s comments about a rate hike by the end of 2015 were as facile as the Fed’s. After the highly anticipated September FOMC minutes, where the vast majority expected the Fed would indeed hike rates (not I), came and went without a rate hike, Sterling sold-off. Why? I mentioned that the Bank of England does not want to move first in monetary tightening and was merely piggybacking off of the Fed’s rhetoric. Now that the Fed fund futures have priced in a higher probability of a rate hike in December and January (2016), cable has made solid gains in recent days. Technically speaking, EURGBP really began its decent lower after Draghi’s QE-related comments, and the selling pressure piled on after this week’s FOMC. Price action has closed the week at an important support-crossroads. The broken descending resistance trend created by a previously completed daily wedge (purple dotted) is not acting like subjective support, while price support comes into play at .7115. If price closes underneath the combination of support, traders will search out price targets of .7030 and .6965. If current support can muster buying, a rebound to .7200 is probable with secondary pullback target of .7270. In the medium-term, we are likely to see trader sentiment strengthen in favor for the Sterling as long as data remains mediocre in both the U.S. and the U.K., which would allow the pretense of potential monetary tightening by the end of the year. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
Resistance and a sell-off in GBP/USD?The GBP/USD pair has some important levels of support/resistance beneath them: 1.5350, 1.5175, and 1.4975. They are significant because the retracement of the fall from 7/2014 may be over, and the question is can the 6/2015 high hold and will price begin to descend to the 04/2015 lows. This downward sloping pitchfork and the story of a price it tells is significant because we may see the near-term future of the GBP/USD told here. If resistance is enforced, and we break to new lows than price will fall much lower. The retracement as mentioned earlier is over, and a sell-off in the pair has resumed. On the other hand, if price breaks through the upper median line and moves higher we are instead in a broad consolidation that can send GBP/USD to retest the highs of 7/2014. From a fundamental standpoint, we get UK CPI numbers tomorrow and USD CPI on Thursday. This plus Fed and BOE speak should significantly influence the pair.
by positionforex