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Beyond Technical Analysis

Bitcoin - If you buy, you can get REKT in 2025! (Insider Info)Bitcoin is forming a historical bearish divergence on the weekly chart. As we can see, the price is making higher highs, while the RSI indicator is making lower highs. Historically, Bitcoin reacts to the divergence very successfully, and a lot of traders use it as a main indicator. Bitcoin can fall to 38k - 44k, so if you buy now, you can experience a massive loss if you are going against the RSI divergence. Best to open a short position, stop loss 81k. This bullish flag looks like a trap for retail traders. Intelligence people know that Bitcoin can have an infinite supply. It's nothing more than a computer program, and it can be modified. And they will give you good reasons to increase Bitcoin supply in the future, such as World War 3. And sheep will say yes, let's print more Bitcoin to end the war. Once Bitcoin becomes the world's digital currency, controlled by the FED as they plan to do so, you will hate Bitcoin. In a previous article, I said that crypto technology is not new and nothing special. This technology was brought to earth by alien entities. Crypto technology is already used on thousands of different planets in the galaxy. In fact, crypto is another version of the fiat money printing system. You probably heard about Greys, Reptilians, and Draconians. When you look at them, you will notice their ugly appearance. Nature hates them; that's why they are very ugly. Their intelligence is extremely low compared to humans, and they take instructions mostly from the AI. Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Long
by Xanrox
150
Ethereum/USDT: Bullish Breakout with Potential Reversal Zoneshello guys. let's analyze ETH! Trendline Breakout: ETH recently broke above a long-standing downward trendline, indicating a potential shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. Pattern Breakout: The breakout from a consolidation pattern further supports a bullish continuation, suggesting momentum toward higher targets. Reversal Zones: The first potential reversal area is around 2,880 - 2,900, where price may face resistance. The second possible support zone lies near 2,680 - 2,700, providing a backup level if price retraces. Target: The next bullish target is around 3,300, which aligns with previous resistance.
Long
by melikatrader94
15
Bitcoin Awaits Bullish Confirmation: Defining The LevelsWe are waiting for confirmation based on the weekly timeframe. Let's define our levels. Once Bitcoin closes weekly above $75,000, we are in the bullish zone and the bullish bias is confirmed. Once resistance levels all turn support. On a retrace, the following support levels will be the main levels to either maintain or negate a bullish bias: 1) $74,000 —March 2024 high. 2) $70,000 —Psychological level and 29-July High. 3) The $64,000 — $69,000 price range. 2021 All-Time High prices & MA200 daily. This will be our main levels once a bullish confirmation is in. ➖ If Bitcoin ends up reversing and moves back below resistance like last week and the bull-trap is confirmed, we look for lower lows. ➖ If Bitcoin closes above resistance and former resistance turns support, we look for these levels as support to maintain a bullish bias. We will make a clean transition. Makes sense? This is technical analysis made easy. Thank you for reading. Your support is truly appreciated. Namaste.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by AlanSantana
12
Whale Alert! Transactions Dynamics, 2025 Bull-Market, Patience &Before the US Presidential elections, all the whale transactions within the Cryptocurrency market had bearish connotations. I was seeing large amounts of Crypto, mainly Bitcoin and Ether, being transferred across exchanges. It is said that when large amounts of Crypto is transferred, it is in order to sell and thus have bearish connotations. This dynamic was on for a while. After the elections, things changed. First, Tether Treasury minted 1Billion and then it did it again, today. Large amounts of USDT and USDC started to move across whale accounts and exchanges, this tend to be seen as bullish and has bullish connotations. Even now large amounts of stable coins is entering the exchanges and large amounts of Crypto (BTC, ETH and others) is leaving exchanges, the dynamics changed. But, compared to past market cycles, the bearish transactions are also present in-between the bullish ones and we see more and more ancient (satoshi-era) Bitcoin wallets waking up. So we are seeing a mix of bearish and bullish transactions being executed by the whales. The general sense I am getting from these transactions is that something big is about to develop and it ain't a new ATH. A new All-Time High has been hit already on Bitcoin, let's see what we get next. The war has been cancelled and this is awesome, but it seems that a major market flush has not been cancelled, let's consider the TOTAL chart next. First, super high volume for the bulls 6-November. Then a third strong lower high in a row. The volume is super high but lower than 5-August and lower than 6-March. (Bearish.) TOTAL Cryptocurrency continues to point down. The action we are seeing across Bitcoin is extraordinary and is not reflecting on the rest of the market, it seems it will soon end. I was considering a different scenario, what if the Altcoins are just behind and will soon breakout? As some are doing and already did; but, I continue to look at hundreds of charts and they are pointing lower, the bounce (pull-back) is over and next, down we go! Imagine/think/feel/listen, if we are about to experience the biggest bull-market ever in 2025, when will the correction take place? 1) Will the market rally straight up for 3 more months and end in March 2025? 2) Or will the market correct to set the stage to grow for more than 12 months straight? I am going with #2. Bull-market year tends to be bull-market year; growth, growth, growth. For sustained growth to be possible, it tends to start out of a market low. After three months of growth, a correction is due regardless of the short-term, mid-term or long-term, the market moves in waves. We are due for a correction, and we will be 100% bullish at the next support focused on the long-term. Now, there are different pairs and different charts; some are trading low already and these can be bought. Those trading high and at resistance, should be approached with caution because people are really smart. Only beginners would buy at the top, and the majority of the players approaching the market now have some experience and this will do what is right to win in the long-term. The beginners buying at the top, these are the ones that will have to go through the first lesson, they will have to wait just like we had to wait when we started trading back in those days. We noticed the market because of the new All-Time High. We buy in expecting forever growth (March 2024, November 2021, December 2017, 2014), but instead of growth, the market enters a major correction and we learn the first and most basic lesson, you can never buy at the top. Patience is key. The market is not going away. If we are bullish for the whole of 2025, there is plenty of time to buy and trade. This is not financial advice. Your support is appreciated. You are reading Alan Santana. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by AlanSantana
4
SHORT POSITION— “A minor correction to $71,645 or higher!”Bitcoin has entered full manipulation mode. The waves are accelerating, and as I warned yesterday, the slow bleed has begun. There’s a top red trendline that connects the wicks and the upper body of a key candle, signaling correction territory. Below that, there’s a green line in the same format, pointing toward a bull run. This top red trendline agree perfectly with my sharp shark fins—a strong signal that correction time is here. This is for short-term traders. Long-term holders, you’re safe; Bitcoin isn’t crashing, just correcting. I’ve marked red arrows pointing to my shark fins for clarity. The Ichimoku is hovering around the dip’s end, though I’m not claiming that’s exactly where price will settle. Right now, I’m using GANN and ATR. I’ve added Ichimoku as additional guidance. After comparing with my smart money whales and dark pools, here’s what’s happening: The bait has started, and new retail investors are being lured in by none other than Grandpa Tom. The price will dip to one of these levels. When the correction wraps up, I’ll be looking for Bitcoin to rise above my contraction line to confirm a re-entry. I didn’t connect the double-bottom zig-zag to the wicks, so you can clearly see the double is filled. While many signals point to correction, that’s not my primary focus but my smart money movements. This is the result when Grandpa Tom, the shepherd of the herd, stirs up excitement, telling everyone Bitcoin’s headed to $100k right now. My advice? Don’t follow Grandpa Tom’s hype. He tends to jump in at pivot highs. I even told Grandpa Tom to stop spreading his pivot-high advice, but he brushed me off, saying I didn’t know what I was talking about and I needed to “research more.”
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by The_ForexX_Mindset
62
DOGS/USDT: Persistent Bearish Momentum with No Bullish Signalshello guys. Consistent Downtrend: Price remains confined within a strong descending channel, repeatedly failing to break above the channel's upper boundary. No Bullish Signals: There are no signs of bullish divergence or reversal patterns, which suggests that the downtrend is likely to continue in the near term. Weak Support: Although there’s minor support around 0.0005400 - 0.0005300, the lack of bullish reaction at this level implies weak buyer interest. Potential for Further Decline: Without any bullish signals, the price is likely to test lower support levels within the channel.
Short
by melikatrader94
4
Spring is ComingThe last months in crypto markets have been firmly in the shadow of the looming US presidential elections. Whatever one's political stance, it was hard to argue that a Donald Trump victory would not be immensely positive for the crypto industry. The ongoing legal fights between US regulators such as the SEC and the crypto industry and the Biden administration's open hostility to the industry were a constant backdrop of the past years. In sharp contract, Republican candidate Trump had embraced the industry in early 2024. His appearance at a large Bitcoin conference in Nashville, his announcement to fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler on day 1 of a Trump administration and also his promise to build a national US Bitcoin reserve have been music to the ears of many a crypto trader. No wonder that as soon as Trump started to take the lead on election night, Bitcoin rallied sharply. A new all-time-high of $75,000 per one Bitcoin was reached nearly effortlessly. Bitcoin has been trading above $76,000 for most of the post-election days. Across the industry, the drop in tension is almost palpable. No longer will a bad faith regulator pursue legitimate companies such as Coinbase, Uniswap or Consensys at will. No longer will Senate block common-sense crypto regulatory frameworks. The possibilities now seem almost limitless. Coins of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) projects have seen some of the largest rallies since election days. Not only will these projects benefit from regulatory clarity, but their tokens might also start to receive genuine utility such as revenue shares. The fundraising environment for projects should become more open. Maybe more onchain projects will open up to American users. It is common practice for projects to geo-block American users for fear of the long arms of US law enforcement. It is nearly poetic justice that mainstream pollsters predicting a tight election were outperformed by Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market that continuously showed Trump well ahead of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris. What will the next months hold? US presidential elections tend to be bullish for crypto markets. After Obama’s 2012 victory, Bitcoin rose nearly 2,400% within a year. In 2016, following Trump’s success, Bitcoin soared 960% over the following 12 months. One year after Biden’s 2020 win, Bitcoin rose another 360%. Of course, Bitcoin's large market cap means that much more new capital must enter to move the price substantially. Yet, the optimism in the industry right now makes everything seem possible. Sure, disappointment could always come next year, but for now, Spring has arrived early. Let's enjoy the party while it lasts.
Long
by Coinrule
2
What About Election Year; How Will It Affect Bitcoin?We have experience with 2018 (mid), 2020 (pre), 2022 (mid) and now 2024 (pre). Ok... I will need your help because this is all speculative opinion and we have no experience with politics... How is Bitcoin likely to be affected by the USA elections? ➖ We have experience with a capitulation process matching the 2018 midterm election (bearish-negative). ➖ The 2020 presidential election resulted in a continuation of a major bullish cycle. Capitulation happened much earlier but in the same year (March 2020). ➖ In 2022 the midterm election matched another capitulation process and bottom (bearish-negative). ➖ In 2024, we can assume that Bitcoin will be in a bullish phase when election time comes; based on previous patterns and price dynamics. 👉 Since Bitcoin is shaking now, we can say that the current market situation supports our main bias. Rather than Bitcoin producing a low now, June/July, and then moving to produce a lower low in November to then proceed to perform its major bull-market bull-run bullish rally, instead, Bitcoin can easily produce whatever bearish/negative action it needs to produce now, June-August, to grow straight up all the way to the new ATH in 2025. 👉 Based on past history, we can assume that this election year will be positive for Bitcoin. Not that I am biased to my own projection, but that a correction is needed sooner rather than later for the historical patterns to hold. Please, share your own views and opinions in the comments section below. Namaste.
Long
by AlanSantana
16
DOGS/USDT: Potential Reversal with Breakout from Downtrend hello guys. Downtrend Channel: DOGS has been trading within a descending channel since early September, reflecting strong bearish momentum. Breakout Attempt: The price recently attempted to break above the descending channel's resistance, suggesting a possible change in trend. Support Zone: A consolidation zone was established around the 0.0005500 level, indicating strong buying interest and forming a potential base for further upward movement. Target Level: If the breakout is confirmed, the next key target lies around the 0.0009740 mark, a significant resistance level that may attract profit-taking or selling pressure. in a short story: if the last candle that breaks the channel remains strong and full body we can expect the price will touch the $0.0009740 area. otherwise, it remains bearish like I said before:
by melikatrader94
1
SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone, Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community! As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such. One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as: a) It is not inflation adjusted, b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time, c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range. You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as: a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years, b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model, c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down. So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data? Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances. To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history. Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%. Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%. How about normal, bull market years? To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode. First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain. Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%! Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close! So what does this tell us? Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years: Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now! The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following: The mode is 15% and the median is 24%. So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it. Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years. However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64. I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell: SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%. SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%. SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY: Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15 Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67. One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible? This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move. Safe trades everyone!
SP:SPXLong
by Steversteves
3
Patterns of Emotional Wallet DestructionHello Monstralians, The chart highlights three distinct patterns that reveal common emotional responses among traders and investors. A clear parallel can be drawn between these patterns and the behavior marked by the Greed and Fear Index, which shows similar levels of sentiment across the board. Currently, there's a noticeable sense of boredom and lack of motivation for investment in the market. Long-term investments are dwindling as participants increasingly question the credibility of the crypto market . This growing skepticism is also leading to a loss of hope in altcoins. Some traders, facing small losses, are selling off their assets in anticipation of even lower prices. Meanwhile, others are turning to futures trading with high leverage , hoping to profit from the market's low volatility. However, this range-bound market is causing many traders to make significant mistakes, often neglecting proper money management practices in the process. Despite all the negativity , the TA tells me that this is a bullish pattern and the target is 80k.
Long
by Monstralian
4
ETH Breaks Out from Large Corrective PatternETH Breaks Out from Large Corrective Pattern ETH recently broke out from a large corrective pattern where it had been stuck for about 3.5 months. The corrective pattern began in early August and lasted until now. Currently, ETH has broken out from this pattern and appears poised to continue rising further. This is also supported by the fact that BTC has broken through the all-time high price zone. However, the situation remains somewhat risky. If BTC holds its current price position, then ETH may perform well. Otherwise, it could turn out to be a bull trap. Despite the correlations with BTC's movements, ETH is showing strong bullish momentum on its own and a bullish pattern. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by KlejdiCuni
1
DJT a winner in life. A winner in the market? Hello Traders, Quite obvious large wedge pattern emerging here, with price action sitting on a solid support. If it breaks support below shown on the chart, we will more likely than not, come down between $10 & $11. This would have course be our best entry point. Could it happen? OF COURSE, this is why we do TA! It is to assure we have a plan for all possibilities and minimize risk along the way! That being said, where price action is currently, we could very likely start next week with a green candle and continue it through mid week and if so my plan is to start buying some contracts If the week closes green. Possibly a few if we get two green closes M & T. it’s very likely to break out in the next month or two. Maybe within another 1-2 weeks. If we see a solid green candle close next week. In addition, look at that massive sell volume that couldn’t even break support. My money is on the bounce and then breakout here where we stand! Best of luck and always follow the path of less resistance and have a plan for a diverging outcome! This is law if you want to be consistently profitable! Stay Profitable, Savvys
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by Crypto_Kinfolk
6
“Manipulation is almost ending— correction is next!”Spoofing, dark pools, and whales bait. Selling is clear, I won’t go back on my word. This is a BULL TRAP but there will be no crash. ForexX indicator— stochastic reads almost overbought. RSI reads sell and my MA remains bullish. RSI—green Stochastic—red Dark pools has baited many investors with whales manipulation! Dark pools—purple columns Whale—green lime candlesticks “I was perfectly clear when I warned you about Grandpa Tom!”
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
9
[Education] You Are Dumb For Not Using A Stop LossThe Illusion of the “Perfect Routine” and Trading Psychology I always thought that if I did the million-dollar morning routine, take ice bath, meditate, and practice mindfulness, my trading psychology will be fixed. Whenever I see price is moving in my favour, I shifted my stop loss to secure profits. It’s fine right? It’s never wrong to secure real profits rather than letting it be an unrealized gain. I see the price took me out as my stop loss is too tight. The price went higher and higher without me. If only I had followed my trading plan which is to do nothing until price has shown bullish impulse. When I see that price made an impulsive move in my favour, I will wait a little while longer to secure my profits. I know my trading plan is telling me to close the position now. But let’s see if we can milk some more profits from the market. As the dipped, I promise to close my position at my original take profit price. Price continued to dip and take me out at breakeven. Whenever I see price is approaching my stop loss, I extended my stop loss and pray hard that price will not take my position out. It’s fine right? As long as I close it at breakeven when price comes back. I waited and waited, and watched the price goes lower and lower, with my unrealized loss getting bigger and bigger. From a originally planned $100 loss, it became a $1,200 loss. It was supposed to be a 1% loss, but it turns out to be a 12% loss on my $10,000 account. “There must be something wrong with my trading psychology.” I thought to myself. So off I went to YouTube, X, Tiktok and Instagram to look at psychology posts and videos. I gave myself mental pleasure by ensuring that I will follow my system. Then the cycle repeat itself. Core Trading Problems That Sabotage Your Success There are a few problems that we face as a trader. Greed, the innate emotion that all of us have. When I waited for a while to close my position, I have already secured a hefty profit which will be realized if I followed my trading plan. However, due to greed and thinking that this trade will be the homerun trade, I let greed took over my thinking. Eventually I ended up with nothing, forgoing all my profits because I think that price will continue going in my favour. Fear, another innate emotion that haunts all of us. Trading live means we do not know what price will do in the future. Our next trade can be a big win, small win, breakeven, small loss, or a normal loss. If you took a big loss, then you have a position sizing issue. We fear that if this is really the homerun trade, and if you followed your trading plan, you will miss out on the potential 10% extra profits. But think again, how often do this kind of runs happen? Failure to understand these problems will have a lot of consequences to your trading career. Even with a solid trading strategy with a positive expected value, you will not actualize these results you got from your backtest. You can have an average expected return of 4% per trade, but if you don’t follow your trading system, your results will be randomized. This will make you go in a loop like this: “Backtest a new trading strategy -> Got hopeful results -> Trade live -> Don’t follow trading plan -> Watch even more trading psychology videos -> Switch to a new strategy”. The cycle will continue and you will waste precious money and time. You want to achieve financial freedom and success through trading, right? Why would you want to waste precious money and time doing the same thing over and over again? Why a Backtested Strategy Can Make or Break Your Trading Yes it takes discipline to follow your trading system. But do you know what else is needed? A solid fool-proof backtest result. Have a set of backtested data ready. Have that set of data be so good that you will look like a fool for not following that trading system. If the trading system can make you 100% profits consistently every month, will you not follow your trading rules? I’m exaggerating here of course, it’s hard to achieve 100% profits consistently every month. But I’m showing you how it’s dumb of you not to follow your trading rules if it has already proven you will be profitable just by executing your trading strategy and following your trading rules. By having the set of backtested data, you are also able to estimate how your drawdown curve will look like. If it shows you on average you will experience a 6% drawdown, then if you’re at 3% drawdown, why would you be afraid of taking trades? If you’ve been following me on my journey, you would have seen my progression. I’ve manage to break free of my unprofitable self to a consistent profitable trader now. How? Just by having a solid trading strategy with more than 1000 backtested data points. It’s simple, but not easy. Do you even keep a record of your backtested data? Do you know your average drawdown %? Probably not. I have an excel sheet made just for recording your backtested data. Remember, trading is not easy, but the process is simple. Stay consistent and trade safe. If you enjoy such content, feel free to click the like button and subscribe for more. Let me know what are your thoughts and learning points in the comments below so others can learn from you too! Please let me know what kind of topic you would like to read next :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Keeleytwj
1