BIG-W
2007 pre-crash : Psychology of Diamond Top on #SPX500 #SPY« The crash site (downtrend end) is often near the price level of the launch site (uptrend start). » T. Bulkowski
Just to notice on the S&P 500 daily scale we've got a rare chart pattern : a diamond top.
In the case of a diamond top, the psychology of this pattern is characterized by the double indecision of symmetrical broadening. In fact, broadening highlights the increased volatility
unable to sustain the upward trend in the long term. The bullish forces diminish and shares change hands to go from majority stockholders in the market to less informed stockholders.
After a period of euphoria and the market enter in a period of uncertainty. This is materialized in significant oscillations of the course. The output of this chart pattern has a high probability (80%) to reverse down the last upward trend.
An example of Diamond Top on SPX500, 2007 pre-crash period :
BIG Swing Trade (Brad Reed May29,2015)BIG bearish. Watch for some support around 42.00 but I think it has a great chance of making it to 38.28
AUDCHF D1 Ed channel breakPrice has closed below a big channel
I am looking for tp to be 8135
SL to go above few days high
Gold - Big PictureLooking at the monthly chart we see a strong support at 1180 USD forming the lower side of the descending triangle with the downwards trend line on top.
If the support at 1040 USD falls, lower targets get activated. 1042 could be a short stop an its way down to levels around 800 USD or even more likely 700 USD.
If price breaks through the upper trend line, higher targets would be activated and some resistance levels must be passed to reach the stronger resistance at 1528 USD.
The ugly picture for wheatAt the beginning of the 2008 while the sub prime crisis start to be feared by all the wheat touched peaked, since then until mid 2010 the price dis-inflated severely (lost around 65% at the time from the $1320’s to a very better $480’s the contract.
But as the recovery geared traction from 2010 it reduced the lost of price more than half when made at end of 2012 the almost 960 high. Since then the price reduced again in this deflationary scenario that are so worrisome for all till the 551 low at beginning of this year.
The pattern for this decline since the 960 highs is clearly an impulse as you can see, the question lies on the context: Is this a beginning of a new trend that eventually lead to a new lows or was just a C from a corrective pattern meaning that the wave had end and therefore will rise again, and if so, how high it will get.
Unfortunately I think this is not a new low impulse, and I’m more convinced that its about a C wave in fact the end of a B wave of higher degree and if I’m right we are about to see a new rally that could take us beyond the 960, and even more, at least near the 2008 high.
