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Bitcoin-consolidation

Please Feed The Bears. Bitcoin Needs More Buying Pressure.Bitcoin price action has produced a clear bullish reversal pattern in a location where probability favors such a formation. The inverted head and shoulders, although not triggered yet, serves as a pretty good idea as to where this market is going over the next couple of weeks at least. A decisive close above the 7600 level, followed by 7950 should stimulate enough momentum to carry price to the next relevant resistance of 8500. I am sharing the following technical points to provide perspective, context and clarity for the community. This is also the information that we are using to guide our decisions for our recent swing trade long. 1. The recent 6850 area swing low not only establishes a higher low formation (higher lows often lead to higher highs), but it also serves as the right shoulder of a broad inverted head and shoulders formation that began to develop in November. A break and close above the 7950 area and this bullish reversal pattern is confirmed and in play. 2. Yesterday's candle (inside bar) has triggered a new buy signal once price took out 7400. Follow through continues to be limited because of the tendencies of a range bound environment, but reward/risk on the bigger picture clearly FAVORS LONGS. 3. A close above 7600, followed by 7950 is likely to stimulate a flurry of margin liquidations (shorts following their small time frame charts who are now caught). This buying pressure, along with break out buyers can take price to 8500 or even the low 9Ks in a matter of hours. 4. Bitcoin has been in a corrective consolidation since June (this is NOT a trend environment). The price structure since then is now showing the potential completion of a broad Wave 2 (relative to the 3150 to 14K impulse wave). IF Bitcoin confirms this (by taking out 10,300) then a broad Wave 3 is likely in play. Such a wave can take price to 20K and higher in a matter of weeks or months. This scenario also aligns well with the May mining reward halving event. 5. IF the 6800 higher low support is compromised for whatever reason, it will negate the current bullish scenarios outlined here, and call for adjusting expectations for a RANGE BOUND market to continue further. It is important to keep time frames and magnitude of expectations in perspective. A break of 6800 will NOT change the bigger picture trend to bearish. 6. Our profit targets will continue to sit in the mid 7Ks, 8Ks and low 9Ks. 10K is the next MAJOR resistance level, and if Bitcoin is going to produce a large magnitude fake out, that is where it is most likely to unfold. Our goal is to take smart risks and reduce them as much as possible. Exiting 1/3 of our position at each predetermined target accomplishes this goal. (Small bites are what to lead to a positive return over the long run, NOT home runs). For those that watched my recent video update and have been following this swing trade, we got long about two weeks ago on a break of an inside bar at 7250. There has been a lot of noise and sell signals since then that have gone NO WHERE. The point is this: the effectiveness of trend following strategies is going to be subpar on the larger time frames because the expectations that they produce are not aligned with the type of environment Bitcoin is in at the moment. This means sell signals carry no weight because they are appearing near the LOW of a broad consolidation. Selling near range lows is low probability herd behavior. Overall, timing is all about letting the market act first, and then adjusting to the new probabilities as they develop. Just like in Texas Holdem, the players who act early in a hand give away important information to those to act after them (who can then make more informed decisions). Letting the market act first allows you to capitalize on the "reactive" order flow, or those who trade on emotion and impulse. This reactive liquidity is made up of the participants who are willing to take the other side of high probability setups. If everyone operated in a rational way, overbought and oversold conditions would never exist and neither would any opportunity. Want to improve your results? Learn psychology.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
20
Bitcoin: Adjusting To Out Of Play But Bullish Location.Bitcoin is stuck, but before you get too bearish, it is worth noting WHERE it is stuck. The 7K level is a minor support, but it is within a very broad support zone of 7275 and 5464. In the middle of the zone is the 6558 reversal zone boundary. These levels and areas are not made up, or randomly selected. They are a result of previous price action and are proportional to relatively broad movements in Bitcoin. The purpose of this article is to point out how we are interpreting recent price action, and adjusting in terms of strategy. 1. 7275 to 5464 is relative to the .618 of the 3150 to 14K impulse structure. This is a typical retrace are for corrective waves to complete (particularly Wave 2). The movement from 14K to 6800 is a corrective consolidation that we interpret as a Wave 2. 2. Lower highs continue to be established, but lower lows are not. The 6750 (recent swing low) is NOT that much different from 7250 (previous swing low). A bearish trend is defined by a series of lower highs AND lower lows. Until a major new low is established, the risk of short squeeze is HIGH. 3. In order for bearish momentum to take hold, and FOLLOW THROUGH, a decisive close above 7875 would provide confirmation. UNTIL this occurs, buy signals carry less weight. 4. In range bound, lack of follow though environments, particularly at attractive accumulation levels (like 7275 to 5464), position trades are much more efficient compared to swing trades. As long as the sizing is carefully managed, it is less likely to get shaken out or stopped out as a result of random price noise. Also if a short squeeze develops out of no where, there is no missing out on the move. 5. Bearish momentum usually unfolds QUICKLY and makes progress. Bitcoin is struggling to go lower just as much as it is to go higher. This is NOT characteristic of a bearish trend. (Want to see a recent bearish trend? See stock ticker CGC). 6. Price can test 6550 or even the 5500 level and STILL establish a broad HIGHER LOW formation. 3150 is the reference point. As long as Bitcoin maintains some stability in this range, it is offering wholesale prices. Keep in mind, this perspective is NOT for small time frame strategies that utilize time frames less than 8 hours. We recently entered a swing trade at 7550 and got stopped out at 7025. After taking a few stops in a row, it is easy to lose confidence in a strategy, but that is the common mistake that leads to strategy jumping and inconsistency over the long term. How come we don't change our swing trade strategy? Well, because it has proven itself across multiple markets like stocks and forex. When a market is out of play, no strategy will work, and that is precisely why we trade price MOMENTUM, no matter what market. Just like markets, strategies also go in and out of favor. While there is not enough momentum for swing trades at the moment, position trading or inventory management is still attractive (high probability location + strategic sizing) because it does not require such precise timing, momentum or attention. Is it possible for Bitcoin to go back to 3K? Sure and that is the risk you MUST accept and adjust for when managing inventory. How do you think the institutional players do it? By obsessing over 1 hour charts?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
Bitcoin: Short Squeeze Pattern, 8500 Next Resistance?Bitcoin has established a higher low off the 6800 level which we interpret as a sign of strength, especially within the context of the 7275 broader support level. As long as the 7K level holds, price is likely to break higher and into the low 9ks at minimum. Timing is less about "predicting" and more about about letting the market prove itself by demonstrating strength or weakness as an expression of order flow. On Friday, our swing trade strategy generated a new buy signal and we are long from 7550. In this article, I will highlight the price action possibilities that will prompt us to take further action, or not. 1. A break and decisive close above 7900 can take price into the mid 8Ks or even 9Ks because of the amount of short covering or forced liquidations that follow. This is our ideal situation and requires no further action since both of our targets are within the 9 to 10K area (higher low often leads to higher high). 2. A decisive close below 6800 can lead price back to the 6550 reversal zone boundary (we will be stopped out by this point). The 6550 area is the next high probability location to look for long setups IF price gets there. 3. 8500 is the next minor resistance level. IF price action turns here (bearish pin bar) we will most likely close half of our swing trade in order to reduce risk and allow the market to breath. 4. 7275 and 5464 is still a high probability reversal zone for POSITION trades. IF price revisits this area, and shows patterns of stability again, we will add to our inventory (which is a separate strategy from our current swing trade). 5. We continue to categorize the structure between the 14K peak and 6800 low as a "corrective consolidation" or Wave 2. We will consider patterns and short term price action (candle sticks) within the context of a range bound market, NOT a trend. 6. If price takes out 10,500 and follows through (meaning no fake outs), then Wave 3 is likely in play which can lead price back to 20K. UNTIL this break out occurs, projecting outrageous price targets is unreasonable and unjustified. There is no way to tell from a chart WHEN such an event will take place. Many get caught up in the fundamentals, hype, and drama that surrounds this market but none of it will help in terms of timing (especially over the short term). Sentiment drives price, NOT logic. Charts do provide actionable information because of 3 key ideas: markets trend, price is a discounting mechanism and history repeats itself. Learn what these actually mean and you will be less distracted by noise and more in tune with the probabilities of order flow.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
23
Bitcoin: Continuation Long Setup Forming. Can You See It?Bitcoin is hesitating at a minor resistance zone which is a tough spot of both longs and shorts. Our recent series of trades have been mixed. A stop out, followed by targets reached, followed by a stop out again. At first glance this sounds like a negative outcome, but we actually came out ahead in terms of profit and that is because of our particular money management rules. In this article I aim to 1. provide perspective on the current Bitcoin price structure in terms of probability and 2. share some insight about how consistent money is made in this game. First let's talk about the technical position of Bitcoin. You will notice my chart has almost NOTHING on it, only projected support and resistance levels. This is enough information to draw conclusions about where price is more likely to go next. All this complication I see on analyst charts is just so unnecessary and time consuming, and it all sums up to the same conclusion anyway. Learn to work with less and you will gain more. Our swing trade strategy evaluates location, levels and price patterns. From that we can generate a sense of probability about how order flow is more likely to react in the near future. So lets consider each element: Location: 9750 is a major support level (retracement of 3150 to 14K). Levels: overlapping this level is the 9800 to 10,300 minor support zone which is proportional to the bullish swing from July to August. Proportional resistance area is 11,600 to the 12,300 region. Price patterns: a potential higher low forming now following a failed low formation off of a range low support. All these variables sum up to: we are looking for a swing trade long. Price is gyrating around a larger magnitude support area. This area is also part of a broader consolidation which we have been writing about since the 14K peak. Probability still favors buying, but the location poses more risk (compared to 9K support) and although we prefer to buy, that does NOT mean we jump in. We take it a step further and wait for candle stick confirmation and let the market tap us into a trade, we do NOT initiate the trade by pressing the button (which is how WE define reactive). So at this point we have an order in place to buy which we shared with our followers. And our targets are based on the projected resistance which means they are located somewhere in the mid 11Ks. To satisfy the second goal of this article, I want to mention something about money management, win rate, and why most of you will not make money over time. We follow RULES (which we are going to talk about in our next podcast). The rules produce the results, NOT our opinions, or any other irrelevant factors. The market either cooperates, or it doesn't. We remove ourselves as much from the equation as possible, otherwise there is a greater tendency to react. And reactive decision making is where randomness, erratic and INCONSISTENT results culminate in an uncertain environment such as a financial market. Everyone is in this to generate a profit, but are focused on "more is better". That is why all these polluted charts are so popular. Profitability does NOT come from lines on a chart. The chart is a reference point for order flow and sentiment that can be used to gain a sense of how the crowd will react next. A high win rate is another misleading variable. We produce profitable results with a process that is right just over 50% of the time (our non aggressive setup). What generates the positive outcome is the fact that when we win, we make more than what we lose. To summarize: The current elements on the chart that we place the most weight on still favor longs. A broad support area, followed by a failed low and potential higher low formation are in line with our rules but it is up to the market to trigger the trade. Although the particular setup we are watching is bullish, the probability is not as attractive compared to when price is in the 9K location. For that reason, we categorize the idea as aggressive (for us that means smaller size). Our rules prevent us from considering shorts and that actually minimizes fake outs and errors even further. Like we always remind our followers, you do NOT need to be in every move to make money in this game. Bitcoin has been frustrating to many because they are reacting to every movement within a NON trending environment, or following others who are. If you want better results, you first have to get to the root of the problem and it is usually found in your personal process. You owe it to yourself to learn how timing actually works IF you are in this to generate a positive return, otherwise consider this just another expensive hobby.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
27
Will BTC break up or down from the triangle!?Even if it would breakdown, we have strong support at 9k to produce a fake breakdown. Nonetheless, this scenario has a much lower probability due to other factors so sooner or later BTC most probably won't break down, but break up the triangle! For now, we have strong support and reasons to believe that: - MA100 as support line on daily (strong key level) - triangle support holding for 4 days already (the more it stays there, more probably longer consolidation phase becomes) - BTCUSD SHORTS are on one of the lowest levels and ready to make higher low (change of the pattern and great connection with the price movement!) - MAC is in strong convergence (and crossing in oversold teritory) - RSI has a triple bottom (with the direction to 50) Based on all that and much more (check related ideas) it should not be so far away to see BTC rise again! Before that, it should go into consolidation mode. During that phase, some interesting altcoins have great potential to rise. Stay tuned and follow us and this idea so you can get automatic reminders. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Remember to trade safely! If you just want to thank us you can hit like and leave a comment. Thank you for your support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Samoto
3
BTC dominance starts to fall, alts start to rise!As you can see from the graph it looks like BTC dominance has reached strong resistance points: - local top resistance - high volume resistance - 5th Elliot wave with five inside waves Additionally, oscillators are overbought: - CCI is showing some divergence also - RSI has a double top in the overbought area - Stoch is also making lower lows in the overbought area If we connect this to historical price movement in similar situations, the picture starts to unveil itself (check "Do you really think Bitcoin can dip up to $8000 or less!?"). We are most probably at the start of BTC consolidation before the next push. Many times alts followed BTC with delayed, but stronger growth. If this happens now again, BTC would be losing dominance % as expected. On the other hand, if BTC starts to fall to lower areas and breaks the resistances (check "Will BTC break up or down from the triangle!?") than it usually takes alts with him where alts fall even more. So the last scenario is impossible if we want BTC dominance to fall and analysis shows it will. Thus BTC sideways (or growth) will help alts to grow also. In the next posts, we will analyze some alts with good potential vs BTC. Stay tuned and follow us and this idea so you can get automatic reminders. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Remember to trade safely! If you just want to thank us you can hit like and leave a comment. Thank you for your support.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by Samoto
Consolidation around 8000There is a consolidation between the green and orange lines. Watch out for any breakout or breakdown. Price can move in any direction (sometime two-side shadow or long doji candlestick). Also, we have published an impressive strategy that has a good capability to predict the exit direction of the consolidations, presented in the below link: For example, dump from 6k channel consolidation in November of 2018 Or pump from 3k channel consolidation in March of 2019 Or some other lower time frame consolidations For more information you can join us by telegram. Channel address: t.me For getting access to the strategy you can contact us t.me is a telegram.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by DeltaGroup
Bitcoin! Will it mimic 2015 in both time & price consolidation?!Hi folks, Details in the chart. If Bitcoin were to mimic the previous bear market consolidation phase, here's what we'll be expecting: - 95% pump from Bear Market lows (target $6,100 levels), before significant retracement. - 33 week consolidation phase , ending at end of July 2019, after which a roaring 2-3 year bull rally will start. Hope you find this a helpful perspective... accumulating in these weeks is a great investment opportunity! P.S. Keep a close eye on the weekly RSI . It's currently trying to surpass major resistance at 60. It could not do so in 2015. Iff it does and consolidates upon it, the bull run may have indeed started early! (which actually coincides perfectly with the idea that says Bitcoin begins its rally one year prior to its next halving event, happening almost one year from now in May 2020!) Cheers, Leb Crypto
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Leb_Crypto
Bitcoin still in a short term correction, no bull run just yet There's so much buzzz around the recent price action of bitcoin. A lot of media articles and we all know that that means. We have had a FOMO cycle again in the short term. Elliott wave accounts for the psychological aspects of trading. The 5th wave of an Elliott wave is the FOMO wave. After a 5th wave follows a retracement and to me right now it's looking like a triangle with the constricting price range. In order to validate this theory I'm looking for a C wave retracement soon down to the trend line. It's invalidated by a close and retest of the resistance. To trade this I'm not gonna be playing the swings cause lets tbh its too hard work with bitcoin. Instead I'musing this as a guide to anticipate a true breakout into what is hopefully the next impulse wave in a cylce that will take us back to the 6000 level.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by EbonyAndIvoryCrypto
Bitcoin: Bullish Pin Bar! Why Not Buy?Bitcoin update: Even in the face of a bullish pin bar, it is still reasonable to say that this market is going no where fast. Candle stick formations are random and what gives them any analytical value is WHERE they appear. Since our swing trade exit at 4125, we have been PATIENTLY WAITING for a setup that offers attractive reward/risk. The typical trader craves action, but the market does not care what the typical trader wants. Good marketers know this and capitalize on this characteristic of human nature and they will write or say ANYTHING to capture attention (which is what they effectively monetize). The best information that you can get is on your chart, but it may not be as exciting as the marketer leads you to believe. REALITY or the truth is often what the crowd does NOT want to hear because it is boring and uneventful. And the reality about Bitcoin is it goes into slow grind periods for weeks at a time, followed by some large movement which gets the herd all excited again. The key to navigating this type of environment is to pay the MOST attention when the market is not only quiet, but also in an attractive location. Is Bitcoin in an attractive location to buy at the moment? In my opinion NO. The high 3800's to the 4100 area is a broader resistance zone. Sure, price may grind through it, BUT the risk is NOT worth the potential rewards at this point. Beyond the reward/risk we also consider the "personality" of this market in such a location. Fake outs and lack of follow through are more likely because Bitcoin is NOT in a strongly trending environment. Recent structure continues to offer plenty of clues that hint toward a range bound market. And in ranges, buying near highs (especially out of boredom) is not a productive behavior over the long run. Overall, we want to see price test and develop a setup around the 3500 - 3600 area or the 3300 area. Those levels are at least closer to the range lows and are much more attractive in terms of risk compared to where price is now. Keep in mind that there is also a potential bearish pennant developing. It is too early to make any judgements, but the appearance of the positive sloping converging trend lines serves as another reason to WAIT for a better situation when it comes to taking a swing trade long. In summary, it is better to look for all the reasons to stay out of a trade than it is to find every reason to be in. Eventually you will run out of reasons to be out and that is usually when the rare and high quality opportunity surfaces. There is no reason to get excited over a couple of pin bars, especially when the location is NOT favorable. Think less about profit and more about probability. That is how to effectively navigate an environment that is filled with constant uncertainty. We will continue to WAIT for a better price area before initiating another swing trade long. We don't hunger for action, instead we embrace reality and WAIT until the market meets our criteria. WAITING is what generates the profits over the long run, NOT chasing.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
Bitcoin: 3450 Support And Consolidating The Bottom.Bitcoin update: Price has taken out the recent bullish trend line which points to a higher likelihood of retesting the 3450 area minor support. From a broader perspective, all this market is doing is establishing another consolidation which is a normal part of the bottoming process. As we always remind our followers, tops and bottoms take time to develop. The key to managing risk effectively in these situations is to develop a number of scenarios and then constantly weigh the evidence as one begins to technically materialize. The easiest mistake you can make is to fixate on one single scenario. The appearance of a large bearish candle points to further weakness in terms of momentum. This scenario can lead to the 3450 support test or even a revisit of the 3K psychological support. It is always about “Ifs” not absolutes. IF price tests 3450 and presents a bullish pin bar, then that would be a setup we would consider for a new swing trade long. What if price breaks 3450 without any hesitation and closes the candle on its low? 3K becomes the greater possibility. What if price breaks 3K and closes weak? It can happen, and in such a series of events we have no problem stepping aside and waiting for a more supportive structure to return. Do not lose sight of the bigger picture in the face of a large bearish candle. As long as the 3K area is maintained, that would serve as evidence of a broader consolidation. There are opportunities within sideways markets also, but they require the most patience since they are the most infrequent. The best thing we can see in such a situation is a failed low off the 3K bottom. This is usually when the reaction of the herd becomes extreme, which can be observed by dramatic spikes in short interest. During these periods you will also notice extreme emotional reactions in public forums like this one. In summary, Bitcoin just like any other market is driven by the collective psychology of its most active participants. No one can accurately predict if this market is going much lower or not. Timing these markets effectively has little to do with prediction and everything to do with evaluating how new information is most likely to affect the perception of the herd in the near future. The highest probability setups are the ones where the crowd is faked out and caught on the wrong side. Your time is better spent learning to recognize the clues and then waiting for the evidence to appear, not chasing hype. Let Bitcoin find an appropriate level and then provide a solid reason to justify taking risk. The question is how well can you wait?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17
BTCUSD: New Range Or New Lows?Bitcoin update: Since the sharp sell off a few days ago, price seems to have found some stability. The appearance of two long wicks and inside bars certainly add up to signs of short term strength. It is a good location to cover shorts, or carefully add to long term inventory. The broader structure is now in a much less favorable position for a more significant price recovery any time soon. Although this market is still range bound when viewed from the broader perspective, it still has some room to retest the recent low of 5188. A close below the 5430 area will trigger a momentum continuation pattern toward lower prices. Before you get sucked into the hype and nonsense surrounding this market, keep in mind that the 4900 area is the lower boundary of the largest degree .618 support zone. This zone has been in play since June and still holds. This means, as ugly as the chart may look on smaller time frames, the market in general is still maintaining the price location where a broader reversal is a high probability. On top of that, the most recent sell off was basically triggered by a tweet. A mining dispute that moved the price hundreds of points in about 15 minutes. This type of vulnerability is a risk that is very prevalent in these markets, particularly since there is no regulation. Insiders can use whatever means necessary to push the herd out of positions, or worse lure them into shorts. It is how large players accumulate positions at great prices. They don't buy highs. Fundamentally not much has changed and we remain long term bullish. We have bought into the recent sell off to add to our inventory, but carefully. If price goes lower, we can handle it. We are a strong hand, and if it no longer meets our buying criteria, we will stop buying and just hold. For us, shorting at these levels (even if we could) makes no sense in terms of risk. We keep our long term and short term strategies separate. Since we are playing a strong defense, we will not take just any swing trade long trigger that appears. Short term structure now favors weakness so for us to take a swing trade long, we need to see a particular reversal structure in place. And since it requires the market to make an initial move higher, we will sit it out until it matures into the pattern that fits our more selective criteria. This helps to filter out the noise and fake outs that are highly probable at the current level. In summary, timing markets is about knowing how to adjust more than anything else. We don't operate with an "absolutes" mindset, or the losing mentality which runs rampant in this space. Our long term perspective still stands even in the face of the 6K break. We recognize the opportunity and risks and stick to our plan with our only adjustments being to increase our defensive measures. And for us that means being more selective on the short term, while consolidating our portfolio on the long term. Just like the insiders talked the price lower, they can talk it higher just as fast. You don't have to have a large account to think and maneuver like a large player.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
34
BTCUSD: More No Go? Waiting For These Scenarios.BTCUSD update: The hard money continues. We got stopped out of another swing trade long recently which comes with the territory. And we were making every effort to be selective with our entry criteria. Our strategy is not flawed, it is just not the best one for this type of environment. So what is the more effective way to trade the hard money? Before I answer that, there is one bad habit that develops in these environments that can ruin your account. And that is not respecting the stop. It begins with getting stopped out a few times in a row and then watching the market recover right after getting stopped out. The typical reaction is: remove the stops because they keep generating losses. That's the wrong thing to do because at some point the market is going to break one way or the other. If you are on the wrong side, without a stop, that is where when a small loss becomes a huge loss. You may get away with it a few times, but all it takes is one time to get caught on the wrong side. This bad habit is particular to short term trading strategies. This is why we keep our short term and long term strategies completely separate. We don't use stops for our inventory strategies, instead we depend on careful position sizing and other risk controls. Stops are your best friend in this environment for short term strategies like swing trading. If you are getting stopped out often, it is a matter of questioning and adjusting to the environment. Not jumping to another strategy simply because what worked before is not working now. That is reactive and ineffective. Hard money is another way of describing consolidating markets. Bitcoin is NOT going anywhere right now. These chart gurus who keep making outrageous calls are only looking for attention for marketing purposes and degrading the integrity of this community. Stop taking the bait. Our plan is simple but unpopular: wait for Bitcoin to choose a direction. We are long term bullish so if price breaks below the 5800 area support, we will continue to be defensive and only consider long term inventory strategies. Those that have been following our trades and analysis know that we have always been very clear about not shorting these markets. (There are plenty of other instruments to short). There are two bullish scenarios that we will consider. A clear reversal pattern and setup around the 6250 area (bullish trend line). Or bullish continuation patterns AFTER a decisive close above the 6550 resistance. Otherwise we stay flat in terms of swing trades. The more effective way to trade the current conditions is to wait for longer term levels to be reached and look for inventory. For our inventory, one of the levels we are watching for is 6100. Any extreme range lows will also serve as areas that we will consider for careful accumulation. These types of trades are very infrequent, require tons of patience and a well thought out game plan as far as scenarios go. Consistent reward is the product of taking well thought out risks. In summary, projecting where Bitcoin will be a year from now is nothing more than a call for attention. As the space evolves, the players and motivations change. The best thing you can do is let the market provide evidence. This is a professional's market. The easy money has dried up because easy money comes from the ignorance of the herd, and the herd likes trends. When there is a break out, especially a bullish one, it will attract the less experienced participants and that is when trade setups and momentum are more likely to follow through. Either wait for the most attractive levels (extremes at this point) or wait for the recovery to confirm. There is no missing out because when there is a broad move, attractive reward/risk opportunities are much more plentiful.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
BTCUSD: When Will It Break? Know Your Environment.Bitcoin update: This market has been stuck around the 6400 level for about 10 days. We can sit here and go back and forth about what this means about the near future and why (along with 10 charts from gurus seeking attention). Or we can learn a very important lesson about market timing. Many years ago when I was a NASDAQ day trader, the experienced traders used to tell us: only trade what is in play. If the market is making new highs and your stock is going no where, find another stock. The same goes for timing Bitcoin. The difference is the WHOLE space is out of play. Besides long term positioning, the only traders ignorant enough to force trades are those who made some money during the bull run. They haven't shaken off the bad habits that they acquired during the "easy money" from a year ago. They will either learn, wipe out their account, or both. We have a swing trade long that we entered 9 days ago. Besides that we have been waiting for an outcome. I get criticized a lot for reiterating the importance of "waiting" which is to be expected from a market where the lack of emotional intelligence is the highest. The other tactic that we are employing is the extreme buy. This is where we have an order way under the market, and IF there is another "massive sell off" we will buy into it. Carefully. The 6K area or slightly below is where we anticipate such a scenario to unfold. The lesson here is less about patience and more about KNOWING YOUR ENVIRONMENT. Why would you go fishing in the middle of a desert? Have you seen the stock market? Tons of opportunities on all time frames. That is where the money is flowing at the moment. We may not be actively trading Bitcoin, but we do expect it to return to the spot light. Consolidations break out and the longer it consolidates, the more dramatic the break out. That is the time to be more active and look for continuation patterns, not now. The structure that continues to unfold is still bullish. And it is in line with our long term perspective. UNTIL that changes, we will look for longs, even if our current position is stopped out. A close above 6500 (Coinbase) is the confirmation we are waiting for. Will it happen this week? Ask one of the chart gurus in the comment section, maybe they know. This price action has insitutional activity written all over it. This is the result of all the hedge fund money entering the market, NOT BTC 30K. Smart money doesn't buy high, they buy low and use what ever power they have to make that happen. They have the freedom to do or buy whoever they want in this space. In summary, this is a professional's market and the only ones who are going to benefit are the ones who understand how this game is played. It has nothing to do with charts, the RSI or news drama. As a member of the herd, you help to provide liquidity for the long term positioning of the smart money. The only way to avoid this is to take control OVER your own behavior, stop reacting and learn how to WAIT for the market to reveal its hand. It is unpopular and no fun, and certainly not the lottery ticket mindset, but that is the reality of best practices.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
44
BTCUSD: Breakout? Waiting For High 6Ks.BTCUSD update: A breakout attempt to 6480 fizzles out. This is nothing unusual for a tight consolidation. There are major and minor support levels established through the 6300 to 6K price area. As long as these areas hold up, we will continue to anticipate strength and hold our long for the targets. Even though price is not following through on the break out, it is still managing to hold the 6300 area. If you want to look at it from the Elliott Wave perspective, you can say it is a Wave 4, which often precedes one more attempt at the high (Wave 5). For us, this is a waiting game. We have been managing a new swing trade long for almost a week. Being patient with a position is just as important as being patient on the side lines. As many of the top speculators and investors are often quoted, "Money is made in WAITING". As long as the current structure stays intact, there is no reason to do anything else. The entire space depends on Bitcoin, and it is one of the only coins that still maintains a healthy long term structure. Price structure develops as a result of the collective order flow. This is the natural trail of money and will often shed light on the short term strength or weakness of the market. And this is what shapes our decisions, NOT RANDOM LINES on a chart, or nonsensical rumors. While we have always been long term bullish, our perspective shifts on the short term WITH THE MARKET. When both perspectives align on the long side, that is what allows us to justify risk on a swing trade. When they don't align we do something that the upsets the most ignorant of herd members, we stay on the side lines. We think like a casino, not a slot machine gambler. Even if price closes below the 6300 support, we will continue to look for long setups. The major number for Bitcoin is 5750 and so far, we are no where near it. We are always open to anything and acknowledge that it can happen, but until price action shows clues or evidence, we will remain long or looking for longs. In summary, for those new to this game, there is a different environment in play from a year ago. This is an institutional environment. They have the resources to keep price more or less in line for them to accomplish whatever agenda is at hand. Bitcoin is unregulated and probably lacks the most emotional intelligence out of the entire universe of financial instruments (just read some of the troll comments). This is the perfect space for institutions to exercise their power both on and off the exchanges. They are like the big stack at the Poker table, bullying the small stacks by going all in with then and eventually consuming their chips. THEY can AFFORD to BUY control. We on the other hand cannot. The MOST we can control is our BEHAVIOR. We don't have to play when conditions are the most unfavorable. We don't have to take big risks, and we can WAIT until probability favors our idea the most. Besides our behavior the ONLY other control we have is our RISK. This means having a strategy for POSITION SIZING, and knowing where to effectively place a stop. A big risk is not necessarily about putting a lot of money on the line. A big risk is about taking a chance when the most likely outcome is unfavorable. Like betting on the horse that is least likely to win. It offers the highest payout, but chances are you will lose. That is the lottery ticket mentality and does NOT produce consistency in any investment effort. It's fine for entertainment, BUT if you are looking to effectively grow capital, you must think more like the casino. High probability, but the payouts are small.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
BTCUSD: Range Bound But Structure Improving.BTCUSD update: Not much action since the massive short squeeze recently. There is very little to go by in terms of market structure and timing and why we have be on the side lines WAITING. Those who do not know any better continue to trade and only feed the herd, while we prepare for the high probability move. The Tether situation has created a layer of uncertainty that cannot be evaluated from a chart. We have been watching the spread between Bitfinex and Coinbase as one of our determiners of the internal health of this market. The fact that the spread has been narrowing is a bullish sign by our evaluation. There have been conspiracy theories about Tether since its inception. Very similar to the conspiracy dramas that attract a lot of attention toward the Gold and Silver markets (for YEARS). We can sit here and argue about insignificant facts and figures, but the bottom line is this: it is in the best interest of the exchanges involved to resolve any instability created by Tether, perceived or real. There is too much transaction revenue at stake alone to let something like this unravel. The other thing to remember is: these markets have NO REGULATION. That means very large players (Like Goldman Sachs) can employ age old techniques to accumulate coins at attractive prices. Especially in these markets where ignorance runs high. Doing things like engineering large sell offs to shake out the weak and lure to inexperienced. Trolls like to complain about this sort of thing. We simply recognize it, and consider it when evaluating price action and levels. So far the sharp pull back from the 6700 area to 6100 appears to be in line with this consideration. Since the Tether situation has contributed to the widening spread between Bitfinex and Coinbase, we put more credibility into the Coinbase chart (it is backed by Dollars). When this situation resolves itself, we will go back to Bitfinex charts. With that being said, the Coinbase chart is demonstrating a much healthier formation. We are looking for a particular swing trade long setup to capitalize on the possibility of a shallow higher low. A sharp close above the bearish trend line will serve as confirmation. What makes this situation unique is the range expansion the occurred previously. If price cannot rally from there, we are then looking for support around the lower 6K region. So far the psychological level itself has been in place for MONTHS. In summary, high probability opportunities in this market are INFREQUENT. People who do not understand that are still wrapped up in the bad habits that were reinforced during the "easy bull market" where everyone was right no matter what. This persistent range bound environment is what exposes those who do not have enough experience to adjust. A positive performance comes from avoiding losses as much as it does from generating profits. This is mostly achieved through WAITING when the market shows NO REASON TO TRADE. Patience saves money, costs nothing and is not hard to comprehend. Knowing how to apply it is where the value comes from and this is a function of psychology, NOT a chart formation. Just something to think about.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17
BTCUSD: Lulls The Herd To Sleep. Break Out Coming?BTCUSD update: After some unusual activity on Friday that almost lead to a break out, this market is still going no where. This is actually a good thing because the longer it lingers, the greater the short squeeze will be. With the well established higher low around the 6400 area, structure continues to point to strength. It is amazing to see the herd mentality in action, not on the charts but on the feedback we get. The herd is either bearish, or losing interest. This is the type of environment where opportunity flourishes, not when price is pushing 10K. As far as our swing trade, we remain long. It is just a matter of time before this market breaks out. We are holding for our short term targets, not forcing trades or flip flopping like many others. In fact, the most recent close on the daily chart is presenting yet another potential long setup. As long as the bullish trend line holds, the bias is toward higher prices. I don't make this stuff up, it is what the market is showing. In summary, the fact that activity is low and the crowd is losing interest is a great sign. Bitcoin consolidated for TWO years before it broke out and ran to the 20K area in 2017. The marketers, bloggers and "experts" were full of negative sentiment, to the point where they were writing that Bitcoin was a failure. A weak market sells off fast, it does not linger. The longer this market consolidates, the greater the population of trades. One side is going to be wrong and it can be triggered by a positive or negative news event. The structure leans toward the strong side, and that is what we follow. When the break out happens, it is going to be dramatic, and attract the reactive traders. And that is the time to sell, not into a consolidation that is establishing higher lows on multiple time frames. Remember, a chart is a representation of order flow. Intent can be detected from price patterns and "what price is not doing" which carries more value than any oscillator can provide. Greed and fear ultimately drive prices in ANY market, and these forces have natural expressions. That is where a much more honest view of Bitcoin can be found. Focus on price.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
136
BTCUSD: Indecisive Price Action? Sidelines.Bitcoin update: Price action is holding just under the 6626 resistance level. This minor consolidation can establish a shallow higher low, but in light of the general conditions, follow through is less likely. In my recent S.C., article I talk about the herd's need for action. There are people that are in this for the thrill of the emotional highs and lows, and then there are people who are serious about making money. Since we belong to the second group, we recognize there is a time to be aggressive and a time to be conservative. Until conditions improve dramatically, we will continue to be conservative. This means SELECTIVE. This means not taking every signal, trigger, candle pattern or any other rationalization to "catch" the next move. Yes, there is nothing exciting or glamorous about waiting. Our capital is preserved and prepared for deployment when the infrequent but high probability setups appear. The price action at the moment is random, it can go either way and there is no distinct advantage to buying here. 50/50 trades are not conducive toward building accounts over time. In the market timing arena, the player defines the game, not the other way around. We like to compare this to the types of poker players that you will find at the average table. There are loose players who play every hand for the thrill, and there are conservative players who are there to make money and will throw away hand after hand until a more favorable opportunity unfolds. An opportunity that fits their criteria for their style of play. In summary in order for us to take on new risk, particular scenarios need to materialize (shared with our members). The scenarios we anticipate are ones that offer a clear and natural advantage. Whether they pay off or not is a function of probability, but when you have pocket aces, you bet on them. Every time. We employ multiple styles of trading and investing, neither of which come anything close to day trading. High frequency will fulfill your need for action, but the high costs will not fulfill your trading account. The occasional wins that do come out of such strategies are no different than the small rewards that come out of a casino. They are just enough to encourage you to keep betting, which is what keeps the house in business. Can you clearly articulate your style of trading?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTCUSD: Don't Forget How To Play Defense.BTCUSD update: 6K support holds which should not be too surprising. In range bound markets supports and resistances are both likely to hold until one side eventually breaks. Imposing your own ideas and opinions on the market ("it's a bear market") rather than letting the market explain itself is what leads to succumbing to the herd mentality. Most "authorities" that are calling this a bear market only do so based on obvious information. They simply draw a trend line on an intraday chart like a 1 minute and if it has a negative slope, it's a "bear market". Markets do not operate on an obvious level. At S.C., we have standards and criteria that define the condition of a market based on MARKET structure. This means the market tells us what it is and we simply listen and adjust. The same "experts" who are saying Bitcoin is in a bear market will miss the opportunity to buy at good prices. We follow best practices and our rules, not the herd. These guidelines give us the perspective to buy when the herd is bearish and sell when the herd becomes bullish. Opinions in the market are nothing but liabilities disguised as intelligence and wrapped with ego. What we think doesn't matter, it's all about what the market presents. As long as Bitcoin manages to stay above 5K, it is telling us that it is in a range bound market. This is NOT bearish, not even close. One of the criteria that helps us define a bear market is a progressive NEW low. So far 5750 is still intact. Reacting to a dramatic retrace is the sign of inexperience. From our perspective, the pull back to the low 6Ks is nothing but noise. Even if price pushes slightly below 5750 and reverses sharply, that is also noise (and an extreme low buying opportunity). In summary, Bitcoin by our definition is not in a bear market yet. Meanwhile, the majority of the alt coins are and is why we are WAITING on the sidelines in those markets. We encourage our followers to separate themselves from the herd by developing a strong defense more than anything else while these conditions persist. The reason why many continue to have problems in these markets is because they seek action and hunger for profits. Simplicity in the form of playing one side and not using leverage filters out numerous would be losses. These are times where a strong defense is what will contribute to positive long term results. It isn't always about "how much you made", it's also about "how much you saved". Think about that. Preventing a loss is never appreciated because it is hidden from the obvious.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28