Human Psychology Never Changes. Impossible right?
The one thing i love about market cycles & historic charts is that you can pull up charts from 1900s and 2000s and you see the same fear & greed patterns forming.
Always the greed forming from strong positions and fear from weak positions.
All I see online is
"bearish" "stock collapse"
"housing collapse"
"Bitcoin collapse (10K) (lol)"
"Student debt crisis"
When in reality,
1.Liquidity in the trillions is on the sideline.
2.FRED has paused rate hikes (as I expected they cannot afford the debt)
3.Inflation (for now) has been cut off
4.QE / YCC is almost needed to control bond yields + stimulate GDP growth to avoid mass unemployment
5.Bitcoin is a few months away from a Spot ETF approval.
This has to be the most bullish setup I have actually ever seen for high growth assets, timing on the other hand. . you can clearly see mature assets go longer in the period of "depression".
THE only option for the FRED is to start QE to drop the DXY bailing out Japan that's buying their bonds (JPY currently collapsing).
Now the main question is the future is looking like the FRED will slowly drop rates "SLOWLY" meaning realestate is going to become a dead market it won't collapse but its growth is now capped.
Meaning all this stuck capital $47 trillion in US real estate alone is dead money.
The FRED will make the choice to allow risk assets and stocks to fly, capping the real-estate growth cutting off inflation from the "housing side".
People are going to wake up one day towards the end of 2023 with a Bitcoin price at $90,000 on CNBC and that's then the real FOMO is going to kick in.
Only thing bears have going for them is China invading Taiwan leading to an all out NATO / EUASIA conflict, lets see how this year ends.
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