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Blackswanevent

Black Swan Event: The Biggest Crypto Market Risk!In today’s article, we will be discussing a risk known as Black Swan Event. Now what is the Black Swan and why it is considered as the most unexpected event in the course of any economic crisis is the greater factor to be discussed. The most unexpected event that has the maximum possibility to occur in the market is called Black Swan, this term was first coined by NYU professor and economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The main attributes that shape the possibilities of Black Swan events: Unpredictability Potential Severities Widespread impact According to Taleb: A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. They are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly. Some believe that diversification may offer some protection when a black swan event does occur. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight. Extrapolating, using statistics based on observations of past events is not helpful for predicting black swans, and might even make us more vulnerable to them. The last key aspect of a black swan is that as a historically important event, observers are keen to explain it after the fact and speculate as to how it could have been predicted. Such retrospective speculation, however, does not actually help to predict future black swans as these can be anything from a credit crisis to a war. What is the impact on Institutional markets? We know that somehow, we can use normal factors of prediction and probability over mass numbers of people like the result predicting based on Normal distribution curve, for such things, even the extrapolation method is not working. Hence Black Swan can take the market in any form that is not predefined, that can attack a market with several forms like crashing of prices and regulatory risk of digital exchanges. What are the two different types of Black Swan risk? Black Swan occurs within two types one is the positive impact and another one is a negative impact, now the inability to predict the accurate possibilities is the driving force behind the execution of the Black Swan event. Any clampdown on the trading of cryptocurrencies and other digital money can directly crash the prices of other currencies. The crackdown of Cryptocurrency exchanges by any third parties or other factors can also be counted as the Black Swan effect, many particular exogenous events can be forced to occur like: Inverse Volatility The crackdown of Crypto exchanges Regulatory risk of Crypto exchanges Low liquidity and low trading volume Having said that, 2022 has been the year of the “Black Swan” throughout the world of cryptocurrency. From the fall of LUNA to the insolvency of 3AC, Celsius, FTX and now BlockFi, the market has taken major hits in value and credibility. Each one of these events seemingly was viewed as a once in a lifetime event. To sum up, the Black Swan event is described in the following summarized manner: This event is so rare that it has many unknown possibilities occurring suddenly. Also, the impact is so huge that it can have a catastrophic effect. The hindsight conclusion if the prediction comes as true. Conclusion At last, one could conclude that many events could turn into a Black Swan in crypto trading such as, Network Congestion where everyone is rushing to have Ethereum and it subsequently raises the price of gas. In this case, when Black Swan occurs, the problem increases tenfold times and also this affects the liquidation process and also low-value transfers can simply attack the blockchain system. If you liked it, make sure to support with a like, follow and a comment! Best Regards, CryptoQueens.
Education
by Crypto_Queens_Official
23
BTC.USD P-Modeling Pt 81-B. Cajun Valley of Black SwansWelcome Hyperspace Travelers.. I have been eagerly awaiting to post this when I felt the time was right... This is Part B of #81. Please See Part A so I can confuse you more. PLEASE SEE IDEA ABOVE BEFORE CONTINUING^^ Or else you simply won't understand the HOW or WHY of this chart. This is the SAME chart as PART A. These are all the SAME fractals used. This Idea is based on a 1 Day Time-frame. Fractal Timing Error Allowance: 2.3 Week. View the Following. __________________________________________ Supporting Charts active are: BTC Dominance - BTC.USD A component of the Fuel: Big Rise in Bonds ---> Big Money rushing to safety.. Panic... Dying Oil.. to new lows on WTI.. Significant Rise in Covid-19 Deaths soon.. See time series snapshots in order to view full picture on each one of these ideas. If you look closely, even the failed charts have useful information if you look closely. And even more so, if you look closer you may realize they all draw to a very unique narrative. _________________________________________________________________________ My biggest catalyst and very crucial component of BTC's black swan event is COVID-19 AND a very very bad sequence of events killing the stock market to fresh lows of $1450 on SPX by election time: You would think BTC would be the "safe haven" but i think differently... I think all channels of exit will be meticulously collapsed. Whatever is about to happen, basically all the important outlets are going to collapse and money will have few places to go. Most will be Eviscerated. Many will just Hold thru the gauntlet. But. IF they were to collapse all at the same time. It would create a global black swan event. A Black Swan Event is a cyclic reset of global asset classes in order to achieve a new baseline shift. Catalysts for the Black Swan Event: ______________________________________ -Wave Two of Covid-19. -Eviction Crisis of 35 Million Americans. -Systemic Bubble Collapse from Horrendous US Presidential and Congressional Policy. -Presidential Transition -Unemployment reaching 20%+ -Major Disruption of Industrial Chains from Covid-19. -Major Disruption to Mining. _____________________________________ Wave Two Trajectory of Deaths from Covid-19: Best Case: 1.5 - 3.5 million dead in USA alone. Worst Case: 5 - 15 million dead in USA alone. The horrid response and ignorant disregard to scientists and their warnings; is going to lead to over a million deaths . UNLESS WE CLOSE DOWN NOW. (which is not going to happen). And I bet a 98% of you will laugh at me as you read this. I already know that. But Just imagine.. These estimates are 1.5% and 3% mortality rate across ALL age groups, including children. ______________________________ SPX Low: $1450 by Mid-November. This idea has us repeating the INVERSE of the FEB-MAR 2020 drop of the SPX, 2x in a row. Please See SPX idea from above again^^ BTC Lows: $955 before by Mid-November being conservative. This idea has us repeating the INVERSE of the 2017-2018 run up to 20k.. So this fractal and path you see laid out before you is not "made up". Its taken from the past data. ______________________________ Major Transition of Power will lead to a Boom in Crypto as we begin the jump into the 4th industrial revolution. This is my prediction for the incoming election and I already know you think it is not going to happen. I believe otherwise. Bernie Sanders will REPLACE Joe Biden and defeat Trump in the 2020 presidential election by a LANDSLIDE victory of almost 80%. Trump will be forcefully removed from the White House after his loss. Mass civil will unfold due to the black swan events. They are coming.. These next few months are going to be legendary, cruel and very sad. If we hit this version of the black swan drop. It will be pure despair. The other model shows a more conservative estimate of mid November. Then by Feb 2021 we will have broken ATH's on BTC. This is going to be a VERY vicious cycle of moves... Everyone knew the day was coming when crypto would be accepted. That time is extremely near. I believe in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. But those that have big hands, want the "godlike prices". And they are going to get it... And it will actualize with a move that once, seemed impossible but actually did finally materialize. Meh what do I know.. I am just a silly scrub with crayons.. :) Eye bleed factor is a 10. Buckle Up... The spring into the 4th industrial revolution is upon us.. But first. The Global Black Swan Event.. Happy Hunting.. Welcome to the Paradigm Shift, Glitch420
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Glitch420
13
XJO Short - Potential Traditionals RetracementIntroduction Date: 02/12/21 Time: 11:00 AEST Topic: Traditional markets bearish Forecast : A drop down to about to the red weekly supply zone (currently encroaching on it). Will be watching closely to see whether we reverse and gear up again, or are in for more prolonged pain Summary The traditional markets seem like they are experiencing some painful bleeding. Since the March 2020 Covid dump, the world economies bounced back rather aggressively. That said I believe there is a growing disconnect between the Delta variant (and potentially the new Omnicron variant) and the economy. Along with this, there seems to be more division within the world relating to the vax, mandates, politics etc. Countries worldwide are having more aggressive postures towards one another (Russia-Ukraine, Chine-Taiwan & Israel-Iran). China has had to cut back on electricity usage and Europe has stated that over the winter months their citizen might experience. Russia has made new gas deals and is limiting output to certain European countries. America's days seem numbered under the current president with all-time-low ratings and America is experiencing increased rioting, looting and racial divisions. Worldwide inflation is seemingly skyrocketing and concerning, with the FED having printed roughly 40% of the global USD money supply since the start of 2020. There has been a large increase in the purchase of precious metals by banks and citizens which makes me think this isn't over. Whether things will get better, or we head into more prolonged pain with a potential for a Black Swan event, time will tell. If you have an equities portfolio, I would consider either selling your position into cash, hedging your portfolio with inverse ETFs or long puts (that way you avoid selling out of your positions and incurring CGT), or a more risky play is entering a short position. I am waiting for a proper bounce out of the supply (turned demand) zone and confirmation from news and the algorithms, before I enter long again About Me: Starting off as a typical retail investor, I entered the trading space in 2017 and proceeded to buy bitcoin as it was going up thinking the moon was the limit. Safe to say I was wrong and learnt very quickly that 'What goes up, must also come down at some point'. Since then I did a proper trading course where I learnt the art of Technical Analysis and have never looked back. Increasing my knowledge from reading a tonne of books, listening to podcasts as well as reading and researching other traders has really benefited my trading skills and style. I am now a full-time equities & cryptotrader at one of the first firms specialising in cryptocurrencies. I am also a coach, teach and mentor to other like-minded individuals who want to succeed within the trading space. If you want to learn more about TA, trading and be financially independent, then let me know and I will help you get there! Financial Disclaimer: I am not a registered broker/analyst/investment adviser. The information contained within this post is general/educational information only, not financial advice and should not be treated as such. Trading and investing in Forex, Stocks, Commodities and Cryptocurrencies involves high risk, and is not recommended if you are not a trained investor, who has conducted proper research and training. Viewers are responsible for how they use this information and I am not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the information provided. Please consider carefully whether trading is suitable for you, given your current circumstances, financial situation and knowledge.
ASX:XJOShort
by OllyBakker
1
BTC.USD P-Modeling Pt 104. The Galaxy of Cajuns. The Black Swan.Welcome Hyperspace Travelers, This is a 1-Day Time-Series Analysis. I will take 1 snapshot everyday and post it. We are going to follow this all the way down, as modeled in every previous trial. I know this is going to be dismissed immediately. I expect it based on my previous failures. You won't change my mind. The binary code doesn't lie, it can only be misinterpreted. Which I have done numerous times. Each failure was a lesson, a lesson well learned. And rightfully so.. But that won't stop me from nailing the once in a lifetime Black Swan. I can fail 10000x's and not be discouraged. Because in the end, the truth always prevails. It is inevitable. This is my 5th attempt trying to call the Black Swan. This is Trial #1 of #5 and the best trial I had. Look at the structure.. Press play. The structure was realized minus fractal depth. very important. Now we invert the 2013 sequence. My narrative has not changed in the slightest; nothing has changed. Except one of the biggest illusions in history across all global markets. It is going to be pure annihilation everywhere... Structure is everything in binary decoding. It depicts intention. The Great Black Swan is inevitable. The Great Global Reset is inevitable. The cybernetic era of advancement is upon us! The Roaring 20's is upon us! The 4th Industrial Revolution is upon us! All hail the Great Paradigm Shift! Evidence below: They are all connected. SPX: Public Idea: DXY: Public Idea: UVXY: VIX: Public Idea: Covid-19: Public Idea: Covid-19 is not done. We have one more global shutdown in the works to deal with this last wave. Time for the Grand Finale. 20 years in the making. Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Glitch420
25
S&P Analysis Week of Jan 3rd 2021: Happy New Year!Happy New Year to everyone! What will the markets do in 2021? Will we be up or down for the year? I have no idea what will happen this year except that I think we will continue to see big moves to the upside and downside. I would also not be surprised if we have another black swan event. The equity markets continue to be risky so be very careful trading this year. Don't let your guard down because that's when the market will make a fool out of you. I expect markets to give us nice juicy pullbacks that will look like the end of the world. These could be possible long entries or a time to accumulate shares of your favorite companies. This is the first week of trading for the new year. There is a superstition that the first day of trading in the new year will tell you whether the market will be up or down at the end of the year. Do you believe that? How is 2021 starting off? Well, the trend continues to be your friend until the very end. There is a strong diagonal channel that price has been using to go higher. In fact, there are multiple trend lines that are supporting the market going into 2021. Is the market setting up a bull trap or will the trend continue into the first week of trading? It might be smart to wait out the first day or two of trading to get a feel for what the market might be setting up for. However, here are the trade setups. Trade Setup 1: I have a line at last weeks resistance (~3750). Get above that line with a retest and you have a good long probability IMO. Also, technically price has tested around 3720 all of last week so you could be aggressive and take the trade as soon as it breaks above 3750. However, keep in mind that the last week of the year can be misleading. The markets tend to float around and can easily move higher with low volume. Will the market want to retest 3700 when all the traders come back from their holiday time-off? Be ready for anything the first week. If price does come drop below the support at 3720, there is the strong diagonal trend lines drawn in where price could bounce off. The line would support a 3700 retest. Be sure to have a conservative stop loss. Trade Setup 2: I have two short trade setups (trade setup 2a and 2b). 2a aligns with a break over the strong trend line started in the beginning of November. Although a break of this trend line could set off selling, it's not my preferred short trade because of the bullishness of the market. If price breaks down below 3600, then I'm interested in a short trade. Between 3700 and 3600 is no man's land for me, I'm sitting on the sidelines. Remember to never play the breakouts. Wait for a retest and resumption in the direction of your trade. "When it feels really right, it's probably wrong. When it feels really wrong, it's probably right." Be patient and make 2021 your best trading year. Good luck!
CME_MINI:MESH2021Long
by XYZ-Trader-