Is the SPY carving out a bottom? A Bollinger and MA study. In this video I discuss the importance of the 3rd standard deviation from the 50 SMA on the SPY, QQQ, and NDX. Details in video.
TLDR:
The SPY has found itself at extremes: The Stochastic, the ATR, and the 3rd standard deviation (lower Bollinger Band) on the weekly timeframe all show this.
Pull up the weekly SPY, add the Bollinger Band - go to settings: change the period to 50 and the stnddv to 3, add ATR, add Stochastic, add the 50 SMA - these will paint a picture of the extremes
Study the corrections vs the crashes, 00', 08', 18', 20', 22' - ask yourself: is this a correction or a crash?
Consider the extremes and consider the history of corrections/crashes and how they uses these extremes.
I have heard this argument A LOT last week: " The NASDAQ and IWM are already at -30%.....if the SPY is to go lower that means the NASDAQ may go to -45% and THIS is not possible."
---> I beg to differ, but recognize the importance of the Bollinger bounce. Look at the dot com bubble and the housing market crash, extremes can be used as a trend line for extended periods.
Remember, nothing goes straight down or up, there is always trending days/periods and range days/periods. It is best to be able to quickly identify which type of day/period you are trading in in order to ultimately use your indicators correctly.
Although I remain in the bear camp, I am absolutely open to the idea of a huge massive bounce here before the 200 SMA is tested. This bounce may come with a test of the 50 SMA in the 440's - where is goes from there I am not yet ready to speculate on. Since though I am remaining bearish, I do see a higher probability of the 200 SMA being tested before the real rally to the 50 begins. Either way, I do expect a rally in the near term, news and catalysts aside.
Please watch the video for a more detailed look, and please chart this out yourself to draw your own conclusions.....as these are ONLY my opinions and NOT financial advise.
