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Bitcoin (BTC) - Happy buying spot here, wathcing OBVEveryone is watching BTC, there is an expectation of a further drop and even a continued bear market. I am in the neutral camp with the current price action, with a bullish bias - I think this is an attractive area to be speculating long. There is currently a confluence of indicators telling me that we are ready to retest the 54 and possibly 59k range. OBV distribution channel looks ready to break, just as it has in previous accumulation rallies and it is doing so from a convincing trend base line. the distinct difference this time is that price has led volume, which is a sign for caution - but volume is now looking to confirm the price declining trend break. The Volumes have been low, but we had a couple of higher than average buy volume days on coinbase recently which I take as a bullish indicator (big sell volumes on coinbase is a bearish indicator, and conversely, big buy volumes I see as a leading indicator, and we have seen a recent period of above average buy volume on coinbase in the recent dip, while other exchanges appear to be showing sell volumes). BTC appears to be consistently moving off exchanges into cold storage which is another positive sign of ongoing accumulation (rather than distribution, as we might assume was happening at the 54k range - note too there was higher than usual coinbase sell volumes at the 54k range) Further On the bullish side: concurrently, MACD RSI and OBV all are giving bullish divergences on the 4H - I don't trust any indicator in isolation, particularly those widely available and changeable ones, but a confluence of all three I do take a degree of confidence from. On the bearish side: we are in a solid down trend, and the bears appear to have the upper hand still - we have to be cautious of further mischief to trigger liquidations panic selling and further accumulation. So I am happy to be buying BTC on spot at around the 46k range, with some buy orders set lower in case of mischief. Though trading this area very cautiously A bit of coinbase buy activity
Long
by jamoooo
Bitcoin (BTC) - 4H OBV remains remarkably instructive Take a look at the consistency of the (Binance) 4H OBV trend, which remains for me very instructive. I use the Binance volumes as they are the largest but I am looking to script something that draws OBV data from all the major exchanges to see if it yields anything actionable. But the Binance 4H OBV has remained remarkably instructive - this is part of the reason I suspected we could see a wick down into the 40ks in my last BTC analysis, as the accumulation that seemed to be happening was happening so far above my green baseline trend, to which the OBV has consistently checked back in to, with each rise and pullback. I hoped that this would not take place, but it is remarkable to see how the OBV trend has so consistently tracked these capitulations (to the candle close). This OBV trend will be one of the things I will be watching in the coming days, if I begin to see it break-down that will be a red flag for me, and I will look for other signals that might confirm a more significant price break down to come. These MACD trends are also instructive here, and as yet all seems to be trading within trend. Will be interesting to see if BTC can consolidate above my OBV green baseline trend, before clearly breaking the declining OBV distribution channel trend that has each time signaled the start of another bullish accumulation phase. What I thought to be accumulation happening in my last BTC analysis may have in fact been an extended period of distribution at that price range before a rug pull. As it seems that OBV trend did indeed check back into its baseline
Long
by jamoooo
Bitcoin (BTC) - big accumulation happening, is bottom in?For those looking for some good news, there is a significant divergence over the past week between price and OBV on the 4H. I find the 4H OBV with BTC to be the most actionable time frame for trends and trend breaks (the higher time frames I use more via levels). It is very unusual to see the OBV clearly trending up while price is so significantly trending down. This indicates to me that we are seeing on-balance more accumulation happening in this range than distribution, which can be an indicator of the trend reversal (we see a similar divergence taking place after the period of distribution in Sept, and the break upwards that followed) Added to this we are now at the area of interest I described in my previous idea, within this 54k range (see related idea). Market makers are setting up for a big move, it remains to be seen if this is bullish or bearish But I am pleased to hear the sentiment shifting bearish and finally seeing a large ratio of shorts beginning to accumulate on exchanges after loads of longs being liquidated. These positions will provide the liquidity for a move, which I suspect will be a bullish one. This does not mean we will not trade lower, it is entirely possibly in the coming week we see wicks down below the 50k zone, which I will be looking to buy. Such a move will see many more shorts being opened which will likely be the liquidity for a significant move upwards. This is the macro movements I am suspecting currently. Though I am ready to shift bearish if we begin trading again in the low side of the 40k range I see this 54k range as a value area and I am looking to accumulate in dips below this range It is hard to gauge exactly what the genuine impact of the covid situation will be with institutional buyers and beyond, which could shift everything. Let's see what this week brings
Long
by jamoooo
Bitcoin (BTC) - 54k is my lower targetRelief rally is in, made some good gains on ROSE, ENJ and SOL. Now BTC is under support-turned resistance at 58500 If we see a rejection here my primary area of interest is the 54k zone (53800 is a key level I have marked out). If we break through next resistance is 62-63k range. Looking at the 54k range: This level was previously support and a big value area with volumes traded. Confluent now with both ascending macro channel and descending daily channel, Confluent also with monthly open and monthly reversal doji, which makes this a further area of interest. Further, the 54k range is also the approx 50% retrace from recent top Importantly, returning again to my on going OBV trends on the 4H, we can see that BTC briefly broke out of the top of this trend channel, found support on the top side but ultimately lost that support with this pull back. It is likely that we see BTC return now to the green trend, as has been its tendency for the past 6 months. It seems reasonable to think a revisit to the 54k range would find support on the importance green OBV trend I have marked and and see BTC start to reset from there (Purple lower OBV trend has been the capitulation point and may see that is there are lots of liquidations) Alternatively, what we have witnessed the past few days is a bear trap to produce liquidity for an upside push and the OBV trends may not be utilized. On the bull trappish side of thing, (as we are seeing far more longs opened than shorts still) we may see a push but up through resistance toward 62k, new longs opened, before a plunge back to 54k, liquidating those long. I anticipate 58500 to 54000, but will be trading carefully
Long
by jamoooo
Bitcoin (BTC) - My targets remain the same, waiting for DailyBitcoin has been fluctuating, likely this is Market makers hunting stops. Regardless, my targets remain the same. Want to see the daily close above 60k. Then I will think about increasing my position on BTC . I got a good jump on this recent rally with my previous post but got stopped out of the trade I opened on BTC at 58k with the dive a few hours ago. The effect the pumping and dumping has had is to bring our volumes back up to (and above) the daily averages. Daily and 4H OBV have (assuming we close green on both) reclaimed key levels, which for me signals a technical return to bullish trend as we reclaim the level at which the previous bullish trend broke. These indicators are to be seen with caution as they can produce anomalies with big buy and sell events like the last couple of hours, but I like what the volume analysis is currently telling me. Volumes have been very weak and these pumps are shifting that, and they are shifting that green on the higher time frames. and we are seeing a good amount of those volumes responding to the pull backs rather than at price peaks. (I also like the divergence on the 4H MACD histogram) For now I am sitting back and waiting for confirmation of price movements on higher time frames. I still see the 54k range as a key area of interest and still thinking of this as a likely relief rally, but will think about adding a cautious position size around the 60k range if we hold this level for daily close. Wouldn't be surprised to see wicks down into the upper 50k range after daily close, will be looking at those for buy setups for possible intraday trade. I've been stopped out twice already at this level (all very modest position sizes, probing for reversals), I have a 3 times rule - if I get stopped out again at this level I will sit back and wait for further price developments. If we lose the 6000-59500 level on the daily I will also be sitting this out for now. Looking for a high volume bottom in the revisit to 58k, and watching that price develop from there. While keeping an eye on 54k for opportunities to increase position size if we revisit. (Note, trading view is doing something funny with my price channels lately, offsetting when I post but then correcting later - ignore that price channel if it doesn't run to the ATH price peak)
Long
by jamoooo
Bitcoin (BTC) - Health report on Daily (OBV trends)Bitcoin Daily chart is the one showing greatest signs of a stall or retrace for me currently. Weekly is still overall bullish, but daily is showing volume grinding at a key level, lagging behind price. Other signals here are the MACD histogram (D) which is trading as high as it has all year and declining (though we are yet to see a typical second effort on the histogram). RSI is trading very high, and struggling to follow price to higher highs. Importantly, a daily close green (if we do in approx 30mins) will have OBV signal the first possible break of the key level it has been testing for the past two months, though it is doing so from a place of relative over extension on MACD and RSI indicators. We may see an exhaustion top here before a pull back. The price preceding volume through this range on the daily hints that we may need to check back into some lower price supports (57.5, 54, 50k) before another push up. As OBV upward trend breaks from this level of extension often see a knock back down in the following 24hrs. If we see volume hold above this level in the coming days that will be a strong sign of confirmation and continuation, even if we see some pull back in price. The simple trend lines on the MACD and the lack of a typical second effort on the histogram might hint at another push up before some pull back, but more immediately are signs of momentum slowing. Ultimately, OBV on the daily is currently showing bearish divergence, compared with its overall bullish momentum for the past 3 months. Ideally, I want to see a ranging consolidation above the 60k, with possible wicks below, while RSI and MACD reset bullishly and we make another push up. A deeper pull back would see us revisiting the 54-50k range (with possible wicks down into the 40s), but I would not be alone in seeing this range as a great buy opportunity. If we see it trade below this range on the daily, that's not good For LTF signals of possible retrace, keep an eye on the 4H OBV trend (see my other analysis) and see how it confirms any signs of pull back on RSI and MACD
by jamoooo
Bitcoin (BTC) - confidence lines & retrace (4H OBV trends)For all those anxious about the retrace - here are some confidence lines we might choose to follow. BTC has established a clear 4H OBV trend channel (4H is my favoured time frame for this kind of OBV analysis). For those anxious about a pull back we can use these channel trends as confidence lines. We have 2 hours left on current 4hr candle, if it closes red we will break the green OBV trend, test the RSI trend bearishly and the 40. If we close green, we continue up green OBV trend, reset RSI on 50 and remain confident! We can see on the chart (circled) the preemptive signal this OBV break gave for last minor retrace in bitcoin move up. If we see a break at the current level we might expect to revisit the 57500 price range. Big confidence break will be a break of the purple lower trend. That is when I will brace for a return to the lower levels.
by jamoooo
Bitcoin (BTC) - OBV Channel breakout Bitcoin is currently breaking out of the top trend of the macro OBV channel it has been trading in since late June. September 25 I posted about bitcoin breaking out of the local declining OBV distribution channel and a possible rise in price of 25-50% to follow, replaying both the OBV trend break and rise that occurred in July (both circled on chart). This situation has played out beautifully so far. We can see from the chart that the breakout in July defined the upper limit of the channel, but on its second attempt then to push up showed a clear bearish divergence on the OBV, before seeing a pullback Anticipating the possible repeat of this situation I have been speculating recently on a possible (healthy) pull back of BTC to the 48-50k range before another possible leg up. Though the second attempt this time has shown clear bullish sentiment. If the current OBV trend break can hold (coupled with other positive indicators) it makes me feel that it is possible that a pull back now may be quite shallow. And we continue up from here. Though we should not understate the strength of the current resistance area, massive order blocks protecting this (through up to 60k) and many TA signals defining it as very strong resistance. I have the pivot level just below 54k set with an alert currently, if we see a 4h close below that level I will be considering next steps and a possible deeper correction.
Long
by jamoooo
4
Bitcoin (BTC) - when will we see a pullback?Bitcoin has been making bullish moves, and I have been looking for signs of a pullback and when it might happen. Buyers have broken the global trend and are trying to hold that level, but it feels like now would be a healthly time for a pull back or consolidation. We have appox 2 hours left on this 4H candle and if it finishes red, depending on what volumes we see between now and then, it will very likely break the dynamic OBV trend, which is a good sign that a pull back is coming. Other things pointing to pull back: MACD is showing a negative divergence, RSI is overbought and similarly showing negative divergence. Positive signs on the bull side of things are that OBV is bullish on the 4H and has clearly broken from the primary OBV trend I have mapped from the start of this reversal. And, is above the horizontal key level (in orange on OBV 4H) set by previous peak sept 6, showing a clear bullish divergence. Yet, the OBV on daily is contrary, and showing a bearish divergence with Sept 6 peak. It is worth remembering what happened Sept 7, with the strong retrace from there. For me signs of a healthy pullback or consolidation would try stay above the orange key level on OBV, attempt to consolidate above the global trend, or at least remain above the previous 48k pivot, while the RSI resets at around the 35 - the price maintaining above that level while the RSI reset would produce a hidden bullish divergence and good sign of continuation. A deeper pull back would see the OBV retrace to the red trend and price break below that 48k, possibly as deep as the 44-45k range. This would still produce a higher lower structure (We saw a similar deeper retrace at the end of July). Yet, would look a lot like a double top at this point and that would not seem at all healthy. For this reason I think there will be a lot of effort to keeping pushing higher from this point, remaining above those key levels. and squeezing the previous monthly high For now I will be watching how this 4hr candle finishes, and if it finishes red and breaks that OBV dynamic trend I will be taking some profit and following closely the moves from there. If it continues to hold, it's possible we see a general consolidation and trend up like we did on the 25th July All speculation and forward planning at this point. Will be following the price action closely
by jamoooo
Bitcoin (BTC) - Can BTC hold the OBV trend break?I made a brief post yesterday about BTC RSI resetting on the 50 and getting a possible bounce form there, much like we got on September 17 (circled in chart). This bounce has fortuitously happened and we are now looking at situation that looks a lot like the push up before a significant drop on Sept 18. In the same way RSI is currently testing the top trend, importantly, OBV has broken trend which it failed to do on Sept 18. If you follow me you will know I like OBV trends, and I place some bias on this indicator. If the OBV trend break can hold I see this as a indicator of continued up side. If it fails to hold, we may be looking at a strong pullback (possibly a healthy pull back) to the 45-46k zone and the testing of a possible higher low here, and the return of MACD to the trend marked in chart. Or do we see a MACD cross, the OBV break hold, and RSI work up through to break trend too? I will be keeping an eye on these indicators If we do go down to test a lower high structure (which will still be a bullish structure) I will be looking for the RSI to reset below the 35 for a hidden bullish divergence and the hope of a continued upward move, the MACD to hold trend, and the OBV to find support on (at the very lowest) my main red trend line, but preferably the green horizontal marked on the chart. If these criteria fail I will be expecting further downside.
by jamoooo