ES : 2021 OUTLOOK - THE STARS ALIGNING 1st things first here's the same chart with a close up of the current pattern we are in
black vertical lines are an estimate of when I think a top could be put in
could be before or after, but that's the area in which I'll expect completion
since this pattern genuinely is getting close to be in completion I'm expecting volatility both ways to be nothing more than dramatic in the next few weeks
really for the next 4-6 months
and that's before ' the crash '
if you know what I mean (:
even as overbought as we are currently, I don't think a top has been put in
not yet, but boy oh boy ..
we sure are close
not when the p/c ratio is as high as it is, as it stands now
I think the market will put in it's top when stimulus stops working
but first, stimulus has to pass....
as it stands; politicians only have till the end of the week to pass stimulus
if they don't- I'm sure I'll be wrong and the markets will be putting in a top sooner than expected
I'm not sure if it'll be 'the' top, but, I'm sure going to be long volatility before hand (: just in case
with no stimulus the government would have no budget, vaccines wont get distributed, and businesses will have to let people off, while UE benefits are running out as we speak...
Honestly the situation is so tiresome to follow, I'm sure something has changed in the time it took me to type this
but! despite an instinctive bearish vibe
the p/c on QQQ was almost at 2 yesterday...
SPY around 1.5 all day yesterday as well
with that being said I'm long and strong right now and have been since Friday probably looking to hedge either today or tomorrow depending on the markets
if that p/c ratio remains that bearish I'm almost sure we will have more upside to come into the EOY
(on SPY and QQQ)
with the p/c ratio that high I have the slightest suspicion that stim. will be passed shortly, or they'll extend the time frame, again, and pass it right before the holidays
--
I wanna take a little to talk about SPCE too
So, I set up a straddle on SPCE (before this recent capitulation) and was about 50/50 p/c,
and wow
those puts really paid, they covered the cost of calls (which completely got destroyed, btw)
and left me w/ a profit on top of it
when the p/c ratio is at and below .5
it makes no sense not to play the downside....
anyway, I'm out of puts, got some more calls for a couple years out
I'm still convinced that new ATHS are coming on SPCE & this recent drop is bullish in my opinion, the more the float rotates- the better
PT of 46 by Q2 2021
could see 20-22 first though
--
that^ is basically all I wanted to go in detail on (short term themes and what not)
below I'll list a few of my yearly predictions/themes I'm looking to profit on
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- the fed keeps rates at 0 or near 0 for almost all of 2021
-- they won't hike rates too soon, they can't
-- they will, in the years to come
- stimulus not being inflationary
-- a dollar saved is two dollars earned
-- aka deflation
- volatility forming a long term bottom
- healthcare, alt. energy, 'dividend aristocrats'
-- Boomers reallocating capital for retirement
-- only see this being a short term trend at the moment
- Oil, doomed
- Senior living
- BTC possibly capitulating- expecting 23,000 min. first
- Gold up...... dollar up?
-- would more than likely happen if BTC saw strong resistance
- Tech regulations
-- businesses look for a new place 'where they are treated best'
- Globalization
-- China
-- China
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to put it short and sweet!
short/mid term - bullish
long term - so unbelievably bearish it's insane
the best way to profit - vol
(:
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A lotttttttttt of money to be made in the coming weeks
the only way to win in my opinion is to be a true contrarian...
these markets may never provide as much opportunity as they are now...
(:
GL!
