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Corn long playCorn: Price made a 13% swing up during April and corrected down rather impulsively during the 2 sessions of Apr 21 & 22 in order to correct its overbought status. On very short term the key level is 382.50 which is the low of last Thursday Apr 28. If this level breaks during the first half of the week we anticipate a bit further decline of price that could go as far as the 370/365 mark which would be an excellent target level to anticipate a long play. From there we expect price to reverse in order to rally further up throughout the summer to 450 levels or higher than that. We feel more comfortable with our 450 target for the mid-term than with the possible swing down next week to 370.
CBOT:ZCN2016Long
by Remko
Beanoil almost ready for a longBeanoil: Price has been moving in a wide-ranged ascending channel from Sep/Oct15 onwards with higher highs and higher lows. Since about two weeks price started again a correction to the down side but still within the boundaries of the ascending price channel. The candle of last Friday was a perfectly shaped ´inverted Hammer´ which is a strong reversal signal and which indicates that a reversal of the price back up is imminent. Price could well trade a bit lower during the first 2 or 3 trading sessions of next week but we expect price to reverse back up soon. We favour a bit further decline to the 3250/3200 level during early next week after which we expect price to trade back up to the 3600 level during the remainder of May and possibly into June.
CBOT:ZLN2016
by Remko
1
Soybeanmeal in corrective move downSoybeanmeal: Price has made an impressive rally up during most of April and its indicators like RSI and MACD have reached oversold area (not displayed on the chart). There is a solid supportive level at around the 300 mark which is about 10% down from the currently traded price. We favour the theory that price has completed its B of (4) and that price is now at the start of C which should take price, preferably, below 308 after which there is room for the next hike up. However, price could be developing an 'expanded flat' here in which case price would probably not trade below 315 before it reverses back up again. In any case we favour a corrective move down from here to the 315/305 level during first half of next week from where we favour a reverse for completion of a (5) and with a target of at least 350 during late May or early June. On step at the time however and let's first see how next week goes.
CBOT:ZMN2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil short play set-upA renewed set-up on the beanoil chart after our last set up earlier this week did not materialize as the selling trigger lacked. Today we see price making a so-called 'bearish engulfing' which is a reliable reversal pattern. Price kept its divergence with it MACD and RSI: higher highs in price (compared to it last high at close on December 4 at 32.35) but not charting higher highs on its MACD and RSI. Since March 3 price has started to trade within a steep channel upwards which was broken only today and, if no rally occurs towards today's close, price will close below the lower boundary line of same ascending channel. It is worth entertaining a short play here at the close or tomorrow's opening but only provided that price closes at/below 33.45 and with a very tight stop at 34.25 basis intra-day.
CBOT:ZLK2016Short
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil possible short set up in the makingWe have a possible short set-up in the making here. The beanoil MAY16 chart is of 11am CDT so the session in Chicago has not ended yet. The candle could be a 'shooting star' in the making which, principally, is a bearish sign and it is a reliable bode that the end of the move up is imminent. More important, however, is that the chart is showing divergence between the development of price on one side and its RSI and MACD on the other side: price has made a new high yesterday whereas its RSI and MACD did not. This is a very strong sign that the market is overbought and needs correction. In addition comes the aforementioned 'shooting star' which adds to the reversal probability. Too early and too much of aggressive approach for this trader to enter a short play here and now already as we want to see a confirmation. We keep the gear in 'neutral' but will have a close look again during the session on Monday next. If and when we see a negative candle developing during Monday's session it would mean that an 'evening star' is in the making which is a reliable reversal pattern. This in combination with the divergence and the 'shooting star' legitimises a short play with a tight intra-day stop above the high of today.
CBOT:ZLK2016Short
by Remko
Possible short set up on Corn May contractThere is a possibly short play opportunity developing on the Corn MAY16 contract that, if valid, should materialize some time between March 15 and 18. Price has been trading within an ascending channel that started March 3 and price is currently at the higher boundaries of same channel. There is a longer term and rather wide descending price channel that started on October 7 and of which price tested the upper line during Feb 2-4 and during Feb 18-23. Price is now heading to same upper boundary again and should arrive there by Mar 15-16, provided that price continues to follow its current short term ascending channel. The 50DMA is clustering with same upper channel boundary and should add to resistance on price. Doing nothing yet but keeping an eye on it for next week.
CBOT:ZCK2016Short
by Remko
Wheat short play opportunityThe price of CBoT MAY16 wheat develops and interesting short play opportunity here, same although going short in the lower regions usually is not to be recommended. Price has started to create a descending price range channel during late January with lower highs and lower lows. The candle of March 2 is a bit contradictory in the sense that price made a lower low again but one could classify the shape and position of the candle as a 'Hammer', be it not a perfect one. Price made a solid move up of some 2% on March 3 which pushed price straight to the upper boundaries of the descending channel where the upper trend-line (in red) coincides with the horizontal (in black) line. This line was support to price during 4-7 January and during 8-12 February but same support was broken quite decisively on February 23. Now the same horizontal line offers resistance to price together with the earlier mention (red) upper trend line of the price channel. A short play entry is being offered here with stop at 476 basis intra-day or at 466 basis end-of-day. First target 430 which is a 5% swing down from here and where at least half the position will be closed. As soon as there is a bit of profit in the position we trail the stop down to entry level in order to protect our capital.
CBOT:ZWK2016Short
by Remko
SB#11 - Get ready to “dive the five” I still do not like longs on most of ags, unless you aim short term and get orthodox with your stops. Since my previous post about one month ago (see link below), SB11 is keeping its pace moving downstairs. At this point in time I see no signs of reversal, instead, my reading says we are about to “dive the five”. What comes after that remains to be seen. It is true that technically this fourth wave could hike up to the 13.50-ish level, however, I don’t think going long at this point has a good risk/reward ratio. I believe one would be better off building shorts from here and keeping an eye on possible DX reversal.
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by againstthegrain
2