With price and “commodity premiums” that we track showing signs of a structural shift, we think these represents potential tradeable set-up in the mid to long term as supply and demand finds some way to normalization after the pandemic & war shocks over the past 2 years. Hence, we think commodities will continue to be where the actions at. With winter just about...
I want to set a buy limit in the CME GAP area that was created last January. Here are some of my considerations: • BTC will retest MA50 & MA200 support Which is already the Golden Cross. • At the same time it will close the CME GAP • Cup and Handle Formation will be formed • Also will be Inverse Head & Shoulders • RSI will also make a Hidden Bullish...
Jumping straight into the technicals, we see a head and shoulder pattern on the daily Soybean Oil chart. With the neckline now broken, it seems a bearish set-up might be possible. While the technicals are important, understanding where the current price level of soybean oil is in context to other products could help us build further conviction on this idea....
This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K...
Why market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range? We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other. Refer to the related video link, I explained at greater length. Or you can always visit my YouTube channel. Content: . Why market is entering...
Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points. So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path. With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps...
CME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Mercantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises significant institutional trading of Bitcoin. The most significant data we use in this report are from the Dealer and Intermediaries which are the Exchanges...
It’s been a while since we looked at the Russell 2000. For the uninitiated, the Russell 2000 index is a small-cap stock market index that is made up of the smallest 2000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The small-cap nature means a few things, volatility tends to be higher for one. And capturing this downside volatility using the Russell 2000 as compared with...
BTC IS way overbought on the daily time-frame, but on CME Weekly Chart Overbought is not hit till $29955 and trading above the top side Bollinger Band on the Weekly which still shows strength. Just Crossed the Weekly 200 EMA today on CME. but... BTC Daily did kiss the 200 Simple today, so... pull-back to the 23.6 or 38.2 could be expected, below 38.2 watch for...
Potential Head & Shoulders in play on BTC so watch out We could be looking at dropping down to $21k this week with a head & shoulders forming. IT would make about sense with that heading back to the CME gap along with an unfilled weekly pivot.
Not a great deal of excitement to be had from bitcoin lately. However here's a recurring pattern i have been observing lately since we've been stuck in so many tight ranges. Quite simply the horizontal lines here correspond to recent CME weekly close prices. The whole gap filling thing is well known so i won't go into that but what is more interesting is how many...
CME Overview: Bitcoin and crypto, in general, have had a major run starting most significantly since the start of the new year. BTC1! Is the Bitcoin Chicago Merchantile Exchange Futures trading and comprises institutional trading of Bitcoin. The report that comes out on Fridays shows the actions that occurred by position from the previous Tuesday to the Tuesday...
#BTCUSDT - Short YOLO Opportunity Lots of Bearish indicators going on here now. Can go for a bit of a yolo BTC short here. Might pay off really well. Although we are seeing some random BTC pumps coming in although it is looking like people are starting to realise some profit now. Entry Conditions: - Bearish Divergence - 200EM Daily Rejection - Ascending Wedge...
The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus...
Today, we will do a few case studies on how we can make a market entry, this technique can be applied both the long-term or the short-term trades. Today’s content: 1. 25 Nov 21 - Entry signal to short (transiting into today’s bear) 2. 13 Oct 22 - Entry signal to go long (for this bear rebound) 3. Today – Entry signal – Sell If you have been following, today’s is...
BACKGROUND Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in decline for the past year with price crashing as much as 20% on a single day in June. Still, the low set of $17,750 on 18 June (Saturday & hence unseen on CME chart) has turned out to be a resilient support level. BITCOIN PRICES RESILIENT RELATIVE TO S&P500 (SPX) and NASDAQ-100 (NDX) NDX and SPX with which BTC is...
As we approach Christmas, for yet another year, we wonder if Santa is real, or rather if the Santa Claus Rally is real. Some hypotheses about the Santa Claus rally include the lowered Institutional liquidity as traders go on holiday (just like us, soon!). That leaves the retail crowd, proven to be bullish on just about anything, pushing markets higher. There...
Why short-term trading into the US market beats the long-term investing in the year 2023? As much as the Fed wanted to dial down the interest hike for the rest of the coming meetings, but they have limited control. It all depends on the forthcoming data, especially the CPI and the employment numbers. If these data continue to have a higher number, the Fed may...