Since the US Treasury Bond yield curve inversion in late August 2019, the Fed has been pumping the stock market by allowing corporations to purchase their stocks on behalf of the Fed. markets.businessinsider.com www.investopedia.com This stock buying was escalated again on Black Monday (March 9, 2020), pumping the market up further. capital.com This adjusted...
Eerie similarities in price action from 1930s is looking too close as to whats happening now and given that this economic shutdown is one of the largest in history, the damage might be quite similar, provided the last time every single industry was in shambles was 1930s.
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Here's a look at inflation during the crash, the following bear market, and then some ideas past that. Basically deflation during the crash, then inflation should keep increasing from there over the next 3 years, and the next 20 years.
Here is both very long-term and short term analysis for our current Everything Bubble stock market crash. We just crossed over the bear trendline and rallied up and back-tested the 2008 financial crisis trendline. This sets up the bull trap, and a next huge leg down.
In this screencast I show that based on the technical picture and using some fundamental concepts, that heavy down side is likely in the next 3 to 6 months. The degree of momentum south is so heavy that I can expect it to move further south on this time frame. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no...
The DJI has reacted in panic mode for many days. It is at this stage relatively oversold on a 2H time frame (only). In this screencast, I show a 'theory of curves' situation which possibly shows a 55% probability north. Please NOTE carefully that this leaves a 45% probability for the south. Probability estimates base on technical indicators are not...
I review some price action and patterns in the DJI on the 6H time frame. This is just under the hood of the daily time frame. The picture is not good for the bulls.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. Kindly, Phil
I can't find a spot of good news over this weekend - or one that would make a sound difference to economies (on a longer term basis). I'm expecting (not predicting) panic on Monday/Tuesday. The markets are NOT economies. They represent confidence in economies - similar to bond markets. Seriously - it's almost all bad news out there - and the algos will be...
Oh well - only about 5000 points of a massive drop in just over 1 week. People are asking, " Has the bubble popped? ". I go into this in some detail. I think we're at the start of the POP. This thing is serious though. I'd like to hear from others if they think this is going back up and to the moon.
In this screencast I explore some interesting features in the 1D and 3D time frames. There is a very rare VHC on the Aroons on the 3D time frame. This has not happened at least since 2008! It usually means business. Have a look. As usual your loses are your own.
I previously told people to get ready! Some weren't ready. The market seems to have selected a 30 min ATR trend line pattern to follow south. How far it will go - nobody knows. This is the essence of trend following i.e. NO TARGETS. This is hard work!
I explain some of the price action on this chart and show an amazing 15 min trend. The melt down has been caused by fears about the COVID-19 virus. This is the biggest 3 day dump on the DJI is about 3 years. I explain how serious it is.
Get ready! There are only two directions for price; UP or DOWN. In this screencast I show why the zone around 29000 could be the most important. See the broadening wedge. Price could go either way. If you believe that the FED and Mr Trump is gonna save the world, go long at 29000. If you believe a crash is coming take a short. If you believe 29 is a prime number...
I had flagged that the DJI and NASDAQ were in trouble some time ago. I told everybody to 'GET READY'. Some were hypnotised by POTUS's assertions that the American economy is doing "fantastically well". Yes he said so and I have the reference. The data on ISM that triggered this plunge/correction was not brand new information at all. It's only because the ISM...
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. Kindly, Phil
We have implied beginnings of new trend, stay safe out there and wait for the relevant pivots to form if you're not already short