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Crdueoil

OIL Analysis. Buy and Sell POIs marked Will look for a Sell or a buy in the marked POIs. No direct entries. Risk 1% and aiming for 10% on this trade. No indicators used. Pure price action. Like to keep my chart clean. Simply trading structure, nothing else!! All trades closed on the same day. Entries are taken on 1 min or lower timeframes. Stop loss is moved to cost after structure break. Don't chase the trades, wait for the next opportunity. Also, please view price action on 1 min chart if you're following my entries. It will make sense. Trading view doesn't allow to post entries on charts smaller than 15 minutes. Mostly trade 12-5pm UK time NY session. Sometimes London Session. Don't like the idea of watching charts the whole day.
TVC:USOIL
by azk001
CL - Daily Range / Expanding / Global Oil Market Balance The Leader Led. Crude / NYSE Comp / YM / Bitcoin were in a 4/5 confirmation as Leading Indices last week. The ES completed 5/5 on the Break and close below 4678.25 and the NQ finally joined the Decline after weeks of Whipsaws, Side-Steps and Gamma Squeezes. _______________________________________________________ There is a great deal of Confusion surrounding the Oil Markets. It is extremely well founded and entirely understandable. We will attempt to provide some clarity and bring the OVX into the Mix of Technical Analysis as well as the Underlying Fundamentals for Global Energy Markets. Energy remains a favorite Sector - once the juxtaposition of Operator adjustments have been made. It's not that time, patience in Energy will provide Extreme returns as we believe this is simply the beginning. The Above Chart is self-explanatory. The Cross in SMAs, in particular the 34SMA which acts as a Catalyst in Selloffs in Crude is extreme in its importance. The Market Structure is - Terrible. _________________________________________________________ Friday's Flash Mob Looting of the Oil Complex is founded in a number of Cross Currents. OPEC OPEC has ZERO incentive to increase Production. None, Nada, Zero, Zip. Chinese Growth imploded Europe is considering expanding Lockdowns. Higher Prices did not encourage OPEC to Invest in Expansion. Investors and Traders in Crude Oil drive price based upon Greed and Fear of Supply Shocks as claimed Short Term Structural Deficits did not materialize. OPEC is in wait and see mode. Probability is they will reverse their decision to increase production by 400K Bbls/Day. OPEC is playing the Long Game. Aggression will be to drain production as Price Declines. OPEC goal is to Draw Down Inventories - 100%, this is their strategy. The only Cure to Lower Prices is Lower Prices. Deficits will continue to mount as the UAE and Saudi reel in Supply / Production. _________________________________________________________ SPR A release of 100MBbls is ! 1 Day of Global Consumption. Within the US ~ 5 days of consumption at Stated Rates (Which are quite High at 20.6MBbls/Day) - the Actual consumption Rate is likely far less, perhaps by 40 - 50%. No matter - at best, the releases equated to 5 to 10 Days of Supply for the United States. Further SPR releases from 600.6MBbls are possible. Crude stored in the Salt Mines is of the Heavy Sour Variety, not desirable for anything other than Road Tar and Export from the US Existing Refiners Structure. It is important to Note - Releases from the are in the form of SWAPs. The SWAP is a replacement agreement - ie. Oil delivered, under Contract will be replaced. 2 - 4MBbbls of deficit per week by the Math. A Backwardated Forward Curve is Bullish - but only in the Longer Term... Then and ONLY Then. Short Term it is another matter as there are far too many cross-currents in the Wind. The Curve suggests Oil Supply is declining now and Participants are placing less importance on Future Prices. Until premiums collapsed as they did Friday, which is indeed the WIND. ______________________________________________________________ US OIL Industry Capital Investment - Current Projects / Future Projects are NON-EXISTENT. US negotiations with Iran have all the wrong incentives again. A big nothing as China buys Iran's OIL at a Large Discount to WTI. Late November is frankly immaterial. GASOLINE - RBOB - IS NOT PRICED OFF WTIC, BUT BRENT. Pump Prices will follow Brent. Short Cycle Supply - ie. Shale, Production is 77% shut-in. The primary advantage the United States has over producing Nations - the ability to quickly ramp production... the opposite is occurring. What the Markets were Pricing in - a increase in Forward Demand, which has short term - evaporated - as Short Term Supply is now out of Balance with Demand. The New Variant of COVID has a Risk Premium due South regardless of the Back and Forth Intra-Day. $10 down on new perceived imbalances. Oil is a Structural Trade, it separates itself from NG, which is seasonal. The real winner is GAZPROM, Putin is unwilling to release OIL, Natural Gas... All the EU wants to purchase. 2008's Financial Crisis mirrors the Initial Speculation in 2021. Unfortunately, the result will be a Molecule Crisis of Hydrocarbons in 2022.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61