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Crisis

Opportunity to short S&P 500Every one on the Street talks about incoming crisis and 5%+ downtrend for main US indexes. I suppose every trader should use such opportunities and open corresponding short positions. What we have for S&P today? 2017 and January 2018 made it extremely overbought - RSI was on 86, the last time we saw these levels during 1980 rise, and it was followed by 21% correction. Bad news from Apple (3.5% of the whole S&P) and unjustified tax expectations made the trend line breakout, with a wide gap. RSI has approved the signal by breaking through 70 (the most reliable RSI signal). Combing these factors all together I see a safe trade opportunity and open a short position. The best tactic for TPs is to close step by step. I am going to do it in three steps, as I show on the graph. I also put my SL very closely, because we still have a bull market, and I don't want to take additional, very possible risks.
SP:SPXShort
by ArtKon
HSI / 2008 vs 2018 : Feels like "Oops I did it again" !!!The comparison is easy, the debt level is even crazier than during the last credit bubble that bursted 10years ago.. Real economies just started to get over it but it seems like traders haven't learnt anything for the previous crisis !! As I always say... trading is about cycles and no matter how ofter I hear "This is different now..." or things like that... the thing is that cycles repeat through time.. credit bubbles or speculative bubbles have always burned the markets even though the economy was looking good and strong... Will we repeat the cycle again... I tend to say yes ! But it's too early.. Sure thing is that I'll have a close look at what could happen on the same fibonnacci extension than the one that triggered the previous krash ! Just in case ;) Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators Kindly, Phil
TVC:HSI
by PRO_Indicators
8
General Electrics - weeklyLong term forecast for General Electrics/GE. Please watch this video: "My investment in GE is 'one of the biggest mistakes of my career'" www.cnbc.com Share prices of GE are correlated with global stock market crashes. It means we just entered a phase of a global economic meltdown. In short-term I expect price to move up then down however, in long term GE is going to 0$ or close to 0$. Bottom of the financial crisis will be reached in ~2019. Have a nice life :)
NYSE:GEShort
by Simon_says
30
SPX Big market correction (Crisis) coming upHi All! Below you'll find a short analysis on the S&P500 based on a monthly timeframe. A lot of important cycles are lining up in the end of the year / beginning of the new year (half NOV 2017 / JAN 2018). Possibily this marks a turning point for the markets to set the final high after which a major correction can take place. Targets for the correction are: * 2112 (WaveIII) * 1800 (Wave IV) * 1690 (Red line --> see analysis of Edwin van den Berg ) * 1530 (High of Tech bubble 2000 and Real Estate Bubble 2007) * 1085 (Wave II) Notice the (Bearish) Divergence between the AD line and price. (small participation in uptrend) RSI is in overbought area, this however, does not have to indicate something in a strong trend. Any feedback is welcome! Happy Trading! Jouke Hartman
TVC:SPXShort
by jouke.hartman
12
CAC 40 and the world: the End soon after the short at 4700August 31, 2016 Everything is on the chart. It is very precise and you may doubt that it's feasible I know. The lines are not random, they correspond to very specific levels (4700 -> 4450 -> 4500 -> 4280/4310 -> 4450 -> 4084 -> 4300 -> 4090 -> 4180 -> 4084 -> 3709 -> 3904 -> 3556 -> 3477 -> dead cat bounce -> 3050/3100 I would go long now until 4700. Some bad resistance will have to be taken away at 4600 and 4666. It will drop from 4084 to 4709 in a single week. Probably in summer 2017 (August here). The ultimate target is around 3050-3100. Then I would go bullish until 4450 (May June 2019) then reshort a bit. We shall see !
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
CAC 40: We have all the long term targets below the short @4700August 28, 2016 (Post Yellen's speech) Everything is on the chart. You know that I am willing to short strongly at 4700. Resistance shall be met at 4600 and 4666. Those would become other very good scalping opportunities for the experienced ones. Don't forget the Bearish Gartley Pattern and the long term Head and Shoulders pattern (not traced on the picture, cf previous posts). It should fall quickly to a strong area at 4450. It could bounce to 4500, another psychological level. But then they would shorting until 4383, resistance will be futile although it's an important level. The CAC 40 shall quickly further its downtrend until 4280-4310. It another crucial level to hold, but it will ultimately become a dead cat bounce. It should become erratic between 4000 and 4300. But hey, after it goes through 4000-4004, there would be a huge drop of 300 points in a single week. It would go up again because of short covering, and then fall to 3556 and 3477. Speculators and some funds would find it an interesting opportunity to buy, since they would believe it's low enough. But some final strings of predictable "bad news" would sign the final blow to the markets. It would collapse sharply until 3050-3104. People would freak out and more stop-loss orders could be triggered. It would go even a bit lower (it's the "visible" crisis, what do you want?)
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
REPORT. Prediction of the S&P and how you can react Q4-Q1 (2017)Gold as save haven? No expiration timeframe, no extension possible. S&P500 correlated to deutsche bank (DB) Highly correlation between them. A price of 12,00 for one stock deutsche bank is to high. take a look at this figure: in bad fincial times we seek really horrible figures... On this moment Europe and the US have more or less the same problems in political and financial way as in 2008 take a look at my last report: we are seeing that gold is a save investing, and the S&P reacts on financials. information derived from Bloomberg, ING TA/FA none of these information influence the market, trading is at you'r own risk.
FX:SPX500Short
by tmp_cox
Short on US30 SELL SELL SELL !!!I personally have been short on this pair since December :) Okay some may see this as a crazy setup but i believe US30 setup will fall to around 7000 in the next year or so There are many reasons for this setup Fundamentals and technicals FUNDAMENTALS - jubilee year ? - shemitah Year ? - every 8 years a financial crisis - FED raising rates to signify economy in a recession - The possibility of QE4 ? - A possible world disaster ? i can keep going on in regards to such things but ill keep it short TECHNICALS - Price has hit a all time high and after the US30 booming for around 8 Years isit time for a change ? - Price found strong KEY LEVEL (RES) at 18000 - Price is now down trending - Price has put in lower high and lower lows - Price has broken many key Trendlines - Also price is on the verge of breaking a key level (SUP) at 16000 - If price breaks that key level we will possibly see a huge drop to the downside I can go on abit more too but i am sure you all get the idea i am portraying i do believe and confident of the drop too 8000/7000 :) so here we come 8000 POINTS PROFIT ;)
FX:US30Short
by ARFXC
12
Again a bitcoin fractal.That is where I think we are now. We`re in a quite similar fractal of the "small" rally of 2012. As you might remember, that rally took place a few months before the halving, after a long bearmarket, a situation strangely similar to where we are now. My prediction: I think we´ll slowly rise back to 450, build a plateau at 450-500 and stay there stable for a few months. Then we might see a rally unfold, if bitcoin continues to do fractals. It would fit also the upcoming halving in the middle of 2016. However, for that, the potentially upcoming economic crisis needs to fully unfold, with lots of capital flowing into bitcoin. The chances for that are not so slim.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
Bitcoin: A Commodity?Bitcoin has long been a favorite for those looking for an alternative to centralized fiat money. Although I always thought bitcoin was promising, the technological aspect always held safety and liquidity concerns. Due to the fact that it is hard to prove peer-to-peer transactions, financial institutions - especially in the U.S. - have strict policies and layers of purchase authenticity that make buyers wait from a few hours or longer to actually receive the bitcoin. Could the inception of other bitcoin trading products add to liquidity or the general acceptance of bitcoin? Recently, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has designated that bitcoin is a commodity. By doing so, adding bitcoin derivatives is an attempt to regulate the bitcoin market. Some find it strange that the CFTC has said that bitcoin, among other digital currencies, has the same properties as physical commodities like gold or oil. It is true that there is a defined supply of bitcoin, but it is more than likely that the designation is more of an attempt to regulate than to legitimize bitcoin as a true commodity. Furthermore, the addition of bitcoin derivatives could simply open up the bitcoin market to more traders. Because let's face it, on a day-to-day period, trading bitcoin can be a snooze-fest. With futures trading being as digital as bitcoin, less than five percent of futures are ever exercised for delivery which may lead to more bitcoin speculation. One thing is certain: bitcoin could an alternative to traditional safe-haven assets. For the last year, I have been the only one, that I know of, that has noticed that bitcoin has been trading the inverse of the most traditional safe-haven - gold. Bitcoin's largest movements seem to stem from money flowing in and out of gold. Unfortunately, in a crisis situation, I believe gold would win because it is tangible and that is physiologically comforting. If gold garners support from another central bank led financial crisis, bitcoin could see dark days. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CommoditiesTrader
3
Why isn't the Euro weaker?It could be said that it is slightly strange that the Euro isn't weaker. As of writing, EURUSD is trading at 1.1040 after seeing lows of 1.0458 back in February 2015. From March last year until February this year, EURUSD was in a very steep downtrend with a range of ~3500 pips. Since then, the pair has remained relatively stagnant, after seeing a bounce off of the 1.0460 level. With the Greek situation weighing and another round of Quantitative Easing, you probably would have thought that the Euro would have been much weaker. However that is not the case, evidently. We have 3 fundamental beliefs with regards to this. 1) The market has been poised for a US rate hike for a while. However, to justify a rate hike, consistently strong data has to be printed, but the US has not been able to achieve this as of yet. Combined with this, short term rate differentials would in fact suggest that EURUSD should be above current levels, as well as inflation expectations. These correlations are slightly weak, however. 2) Uncertainty in Greece is causing indecisiveness. Investors do not actually know how Greece will leave the Eurozone, as it has never been done before and there is no real procedure for a country to leave. On the flip side, Tsipras has suggested an extra EUR 60bn to be provided to Greece for the next 3 years. This seems like it would not solve the underlying problem and merely extend the time it takes to pay their creditors. Investors are aware of this. This uncertainty could be causing the lack of Euro weakness. If and when a deal is reached, a rally and fade could most probably occur (i.e a spike in price and then a fall). A good quote for why this situation is taking so long to resolve: 'if you owe the bank £500 it's your problem; if you owe the bank £5m it's their problem.' 3) Many people believed that the Eurozone would be like Japan in terms of reintroducing QE (deflation and QE for a long period of time). However, investors began unwinding short positions when they saw that Eurozone data was actually improving post-QE introduction. This lead to an increase in the price of the Euro which is still having an effect today. Please add comments. If you agree or disagree, I'd really like to hear it. www.admiralmarkets.com Follow us on Twitter: @AdmiralMarkets
by DavidBelleFX
10
Next Fin. Crisis?It's been more than 6 years since the last major financial crisis occured in 2008. If we assume financial crisis come out almost perodically in every 8 - 10 years then I think it's time to start thinking whether we are close to the next one. 10Y US treasury notes have always been preferred investment tool for non-risk takers regardless to the financial environment. But what about 2Yr treasury bonds? Can it tell us tell of something different? So I looked at how the spread between 10Y and 2Y notes changes. I took the difference of 10Y and 2Y note yields (drawn in blue line) and looked how it changes with time. I marked with green circles where the spread is equal to 0 (10Y yield = 2Y yield) First 1990, second (little one) 1998, third 2000, fourth 2007. I'm sure you're very familiar with these years:) Before every major crisis 2Y note yield became equal to 10Y note yield. Why? Because smart money managers see the uncertainty and the approaching crisis in the market and move their money from short term bonds. Up to this point maybe that was what you heard before. But can we predict the next crisis time? So when I drew 2Y note yield (red line), I noticed the 2Y note yields at the time of crisis are decreasing linear starting with 9,55% in 1990 and ending with 4,92% in 2007. (the green descending trend line) This confirms today's ongoing deflationary markets in all over the world. If we assume the trend will continue as it is, 3 - 3,5% would be most probably the next 2Y treasury note yield at the time of the next financial crisis. If we look at the FED rate history, we see the fund rate is pretty similar to the 2Y note yield. So did you recall the FED fund rate projections for the next years?? Most of the FED members project the fund rate will be around 3,5% at the end of 2017. Bingo! And also in 2017 we will have had 9 years after the last financial crisis. Be careful in 2017 if the spread of 10Y and 2Y notes yields close to each other.. www.federalreserve.gov
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by REDRUNNER73