Bitcoin Analysis It is fairly simple, volume moves (and predicts) price action. The current rally shows the following:
Starting on the 11th, the C.M.F. (green), A.D.X. (yellow), and C.M.F. osc. (peach) showed volume coinciding with the price rally, however yesterday we began to show a decline in overall buying power.
We have hit the daily Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink) and continue to linger there, in the past we have wicked above it and still reversed. The Senkou (bottom of the cloud) sits right above the base line that acts as additional resistance. If volume matched the recent increase of price then I would not be worried about either. Also the Stoch and R.S.I can be viewed.
Below that is a expanded view of our volume indicators on the hourly. (Note I changed the C.M.F. inputs to 50 to give me a more detailed look)
The 12 hour shows exhaustion on the T.D. sequential. This T.D. indicator I have showing is a modified version (better) that Tone Vays created. (www.tradingview.com) However there is no other sell signals on any time frames as of this writing from the T.D. sequential.
Below is the short/longs comparison on Bitfinex, longs are fairly heavy and can act as fuel for my short position. It does appear the rest of the market is starting to realize what I have been watching and adjusted their position as longs have decreased and shorts increased (slightly) in the last 12 hours (too late).
Conclusion
Multiple time frames show the Bollinger Bands capped, crypto generally doesn't care about the B.B., but it is something to take note of. Volume is not holding on the buy side, in order for us to continue a rally past the daily Kijun-sen and into the cloud we would need to see a large increase in buy power. In my opinion this is a perfect storm for another reversal, the 50 day moving average is one spot to watch for a bounce and potentially close any bearish positions, I will be monitoring volume there (as always). Below that we have the daily Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line in orange) that acts as support. As a note there is other potential bounce points to watch on smaller time frames, in this idea I am sticking to a larger view of things.
I have been filling short positions and setting my stop loss just above the cloud Senkou leading span on the daily ($9,250) in case volume increases and I am not monitoring it.
Slap a like and follow on this for me, even if you disagree. That way when I am wrong everyone can see in trending ideas.
