Cyclical Analysis - Heating OilIf you follow my channel, you know that I am long Heating Oil, and am looking for more entries long, based on my COT strategy setup.
Today, we look at Heating Oil through the lens of cycles. Do cycles support the COT Buy Setup?
As you will see, there is some compelling cyclical data that is supportive of the idea for Oil to rise to October 10-20, and then decline before putting in a major cyclical low in December.
Cycle
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence.
My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea?
Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November.
I look at many interesting things:
-Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to.
-The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October.
-The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October.
-Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil.
-Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November.
TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation.
If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message.
I hope you had a good start to your week.
And as always...
Good Luck & Good Trading.
Nvidia - A Correction Of -50% Is Starting!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is reversing at a strong resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Last month Nvidia already corrected about -35% but managed to close with an indecision doji candle. However, previous cycles, the recent rally of +1.000% and the fact that Nvidia is retesting a strong resistance trendline all suggest that Nvidia will still move much lower soon.
Levels to watch: $100, $55
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Industrial Production, and how it can help us time larger cyclesIn this video I use Industrial Production, and more specifically, its Rate Of Change to show how we can approximate Booms and Busts in the "Business Cycle".
I also go over previous cycles, and what to look for in our current cycle.
As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
$USOIL pushing higher in a weekly cycleTVC:USOIL Cycle overview
Daily - we are currently entering timing window to print Daily Cycle 2 coming out of ICL in December. I'm expecting a push higher to break above the declining trendline as we push higher to ICH
Weekly - On week 15 looking to push higher to HCH expected around week 18-20
Monthly - In a new yearly cycle, expecting HCH around June-July 2024
Understanding Long-Term SPX500 & QQQ Cycle PhasesMy continued effort to share my research, experience, and expectations with the TradingView community has allowed me the freedom to create forward-looking content to help traders/investors understand the real risks/opportunities going forward.
If my research is correct, then next 5+ years will be incredibly difficult for skilled traders/investors. I don't believe the US markets will enter a real organic growth phase until after 2025 (possibly in 2026 or later).
There are many reasons for this extended contraction phase in the US/Global markets. Most importantly is a broad cycle phase related to societal changes. Secondly, we have a Sine-wave structure that confirms a contracting price phase needs to reach a base/equilibrium before it will be able to extend into an organic growth phase.
As a trader, investor, or just someone trying to protect your family, your home, your children, and more, you need to understand the value of PROTECTING CAPITAL before taking on foolish risks. That is exactly what I'm trying to help you manage and understand - where opportunities exist in the markets over the next 5 to 15+ years.
Watch this video, then click on my profile to watch some of my other TradingView videos.
We live in a world where what happened 3 weeks ago is almost forgotten. These cycle phases exist, continue to drive price setups/trends, and will continue.
Are you ready for what's next?
Are we approaching the last cycle expansion phase?The last cycle expansion phase or the euphoric stage, has already occurred between 2020 and 2021.
Sir John Templeton said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
Reference of Nasdaq:
E-mini Nasdaq-100 & Opt
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index & Opt
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
The Exit - How to take profitsToday’s content:
1. Why each exit is within 3 months?
2. Why I turn from investing to trading the US markets since Jan 2022 and onwards
If you have been following, today’s is the 6th tutorial in our Trading Series:
1. “The buy strategy”
2. “The sell strategy”
3. “Developing long & short-term view”
4. “Choosing between the time frame”
5. “The entry”
6. “The exit”
Refer to the links below or check the previous 5 videos.
E-Mini Nasdaq Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 point = $5
1 point = $20
10 points = $200
100 points = $2,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
THE ROOF IS ON FIRE but 💯 MAJOR OPPORTUNITY⚠️This is the song that came in mind when I checked prices this morning:
Lyrics
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
We don't need no water, let the motherfucker burn
Burn motherfucker, burn
Hello, my name is Jimmy Pop and I'm a dumb white guy
I'm not old or new, but middle school, fifth grade, like junior high
I don't know mofo, if y'all peeps be buggin' givin' props to my hoe 'cause she fly
But I can take the heat 'cause I'm the other white meat known as "Kid funky fried"
Yea, I'm hung like planet Pluto, hard to see with the naked eye
But if I crashed into Uranus, I would stick it where the sun don't shine
'Cause I'm kind of like Hans Solo, always stroking my own wookie
I'm the root of all that's evil, yea, but you can call me Cookie
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
We don't need no water, let the motherfucker burn
Burn motherfucker, burn
Yo, yo
This hardcore ghetto gangster image takes a lot of practice
I'm not black like Barry White, no I am white like Frank Black is
So if man is five and the devil is six than that must make me seven
This honkey's gone to heaven
But if I go to Hell, well then I hope I burn well
I'll spend my days with J.F.K., Marvin Gaye, Martha Raye and Lawrence
Welk
And Kurt Cobain, Kojak, Mark Twain and Jimi Hendrix's poltergeist
And Webster yea Emmanuel Lewis 'cause he's the Antichrist
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire
We don't need no water, let the motherfucker burn
Burn motherfucker, burn
Everybody here we go
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Throw your hands in the air
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Wave 'em like you don't care
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everbody say ho
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everybody here we go
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Throw your hands in the air
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Wave 'em like you don't care
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everbody say ho
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everybody here we go
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Throw your hands in the air
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Wave 'em like you don't care
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everbody say ho
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Everybody here we go
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Throw your hands in the air
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Wave 'em like you don't care
(Ooo, ooo)
C'mon party people
(Ooo, ooo)
Allow me to be cool with this...
All is see is :💯 MAJOR OPPORTUNITY⚠️
the FXPROFESSOR
How To Spot Economical Cycles Top Using [DXY- SPX and VIX]
Hi Everyone
In this video I want to share an overview of the importance of economic cycles for traders and investors and how we can use Trading View charts
with no indicators to figure out key economic signals on the following charts:
DXY tops for the end of previous bear markets
VIX normal ranges vs Bear cycles ranges
The Dow Jones Industrial average is another key chart with SPY charts because everyone has a 401K retirement account these days and people are use to the headlines of the Dow Jones Industrial Average new highs and new lows to shift emotionally between despair and exuberance. It's not unusual for people to throw in the towel just as the market begins to rise in the next economic cycle.
As a student of the markets, you need to know when it's time to load up on bargain priced assets and ride the next cycle up and when it is time to slowly sell or fade into the tops of the markets and avoid the downturns.
Are we in a normal healthy correction 10-20% or are we heading toward the Great Depression type 50% correction from the top? These charts will help you answer the question.
Mastering the market and economic cycles is the key to becoming wealthy in all asset classes - Stocks, Real Estate, and Cryptos
Hope it helps...
@Marc
Lumber -55% Since Call For A Cycle Top, Now Negative On The YearLumber now negative on the year. I called for a cycle top and reversal for the week of May 3-7. Top was put in on May 10th.
How to detect the active cycle length?This is a short tutorial on how to use the Detrended Rhythm Oscillator (DRO) to identify the current dominant cycle. The Detrended Rhythm Oscillator is an advanced Detrended Price Oscillator DPO which helps to spot the key market rhythm or beat for any symbol on any timeframe.
It automatically labels the length of current market high-high and low-low pivots which helps to see cycle harmonics and relations. The output should be used as input setting for almost all technical indicators which require and "length" settings for the calculation. Using this length setting based on the dominant market rhythm will help to ensure better accuracy to your indicators at turning points. The indicators get synced to the beat of the market.
The indicator is available as Public Open Source Script for your own usage:
How to use the "RSI cyclic smoothed v2" indicator to spot turnsThis tutorial explains how to use the public and open indicator published as "RSI cyclic smoothed v2" in regards to spot market turns. By using the same indicator tuned at the market vibration and using divergence signals to confirm market turns.
As written here:
Based on the community feedback, I wanted to share more insights on how to use this indicator on the chart.
Bitcoin market cycle fractal!Hi,
I spotted this on the 1 minute candles today. Came back later to see an entire market cycle fractal had been produced. This is crazy to me so I decided to immortalize the event in video form, complete with labels and potential levels that may prove useful in the distant future.
Enjoy the ride.