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AUDUSD: Analysis Pre AU CPIToday's focus: AUDUSD Pattern – Continuation/resistance break Support – .6566, .6545 Resistance – .6620 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we have run over the AUDUSD breaking down levels we have seen form and what we are looking for after tomorrow's Australian CPI data. Combined with the USD, there are a few scenarios. We have done our best to break them down and incorporate price levels into those scenarios. Will we see a new test of support, or will buyers break current short-term resistance? Australian CPI data is due tomorrow at 11:30 am. Good trading.
by Eightcap
AUD/CAD Analysis: Current Outlook plus fundamental Here's a simplified analysis for AUD/CAD: Long-term view from the weekly chart indicates a bearish trend. Mid-term perspective on the daily chart shows a broken bullish channel, replaced by a bearish one. Considering fundamental factors: Escalating tensions in the Middle East may increase the chance of the Beijing-Taipei conflict, potentially impacting AUD negatively. Long-term, increased oil prices due to these middle-east tensions may favor CAD. Given these factors, AUD/CAD is more likely to maintain a bearish trend over the long term. Stay informed for further developments. Best regards,
Short
by AliSignals
AUDUSD: Riding High on Stock Market SurgesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a buying opportunity around 0.65900 zone, AUDUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.65900 support and resistance area. One significant factor contributing to this outlook is the ongoing rallies in indices and the well-established correlation between AUDUSD and stock market movements. As indices surge, AUDUSD tends to benefit from the positive correlation, with the Australian dollar often strengthening alongside stock market momentum. Therefore, considering the recent uptick in indices, traders are cautiously optimistic about the potential bullish momentum in AUDUSD, aligning with the broader market sentiment.
Long
by JoeChampion
2
This week’s two best trading opportunities? First opportunity AUD/USD Australian inflation data released Tuesday evening, might make the AUD/USD the most interesting pair to watch this week. This is because inflation will likely come in higher than 4.0% still. Less than 24 hours later, we then have the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, which will be one of the most watched forex events of the month. The AUD/USD has stayed within a narrow range recently, forming an ascending channel that looks like a bearish flag pattern. For stability, it might want to hold above 0.6600. If it fails, the pair could possibly retest the 2024 low at 0.6524, in line with the 100-day SMA. Second opportunity: EUR/USD Why is the EUR/USD a pair to watch this week? It all comes down to the disagreement circulating in the market about where EU inflation is going to fall this week on Thursday. Some market participants forecast it is falling to 2.2% from the current 2.9%, while others are pegging it to actually increase to 3.1%. These differing opinions open up a few different targets on the charts. The near-term picture is possibly bearish with the EUR/USD developing below all its moving averages and posting a third consecutive lower low and lower high. Although the selling pressure momentum might be waning.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURAUD - BOOM! 450pip Target Hit! What's Next?In our last analysis we identified a perfect breakout trade. We explained exactly how to enter - both risk entry and safe entry depending on your appetite. Setup played out perfectly resulting in a massive 450pip gain! What we now have is a typical correction before the next breakout. We could create a complex abc correction so if looking to trade the next breakout, just be wary that we may reject the recent highs and then come down once again to complete the complex correction. Trade Idea: - Watch for the next breakout - Risk entry on bounce off fib levels - Safe entry on break of the red trendline - Target the recent highs as first targets and breakeven (350pips), longer term target 1.7 (700pips) Goodluck and as always, trade safe! See our previous setup below.
by WicktatorFX
USD's PCE Puzzle: Mapping AUDUSD's Path Amidst Fundamental TrendIn today's trading session, AUDUSD traders are eyeing a potential buying opportunity around the 0.65700 zone, leveraging the pair's uptrend amidst a correction phase. However, the unfolding fundamental landscape, particularly influenced by the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, demands meticulous analysis to navigate market dynamics effectively. The recent release of US December PCE core inflation figures, standing at 2.9% y/y versus an expected 3.0%, underscores the significance of examining historical trends to gauge the trajectory of AUDUSD amidst evolving economic conditions. Comparing these fresh numbers with previous data reveals a nuanced narrative, shedding light on the shifting inflationary landscape in the US. Delving into the historical trends of US Core PCE data, including previous releases such as December's 2.9% against a forecast of 3.0%, provides valuable insights into the evolving inflationary dynamics. Understanding the trend and potential deviations from expectations allows traders to anticipate market reactions and position themselves accordingly. The impact of US Core PCE on the USD cannot be understated, as it serves as a crucial gauge of inflationary pressures and influences the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. A deeper analysis of this economic indicator empowers AUDUSD traders to navigate the market with precision, anticipating potential shifts in USD strength or weakness. Amidst the technical considerations of AUDUSD's support and resistance levels, a comprehensive understanding of fundamental drivers, such as the US Core PCE, is essential for informed decision-making. By integrating technical analysis with a deep understanding of fundamental trends, traders can capitalize on opportunities while mitigating risks effectively. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
AUD/CAD: Geopolitical Factors and Technical Signals at play Dear traders, Dive into the AUD/CAD realm with a blend of geopolitical insights and technical signals: Before we venture into any further downward potential, keep a close eye on the critical level around 0.8822 for potential breakthroughs. Here's the geopolitical and technical mix in our AUD/CAD analysis: Geopolitical Considerations: Wednesday's Bank of Canada interest rate decision sparks intrigue. The balance of power in this market may shift, reflecting the delicate dance of global influences. Canada's economy, tethered to oil prices, could witness changes spurred by escalating tensions in the Middle East. A surge in oil prices may bolster the CAD. Conversely, any disturbance in the Persian Gulf, a vital oil source for China, could ripple through Australia's economy, intertwined with China's fate. Geopolitical events, like the Hamas-Israel conflict, may reverberate, potentially impacting China, Taiwan, and, subsequently, the AUD. Technical Signals: The battleground of charts and indicators beckons. Before anticipating major moves, consider the technical landscape. The Bank of Canada's decision could sway the market sentiment, making the 0.8822 level a pivotal point. A breach could signal a shift in the technical dynamics. This amalgamation of geopolitical considerations and technical intricacies sets the stage for an engaging AUD/CAD landscape. Stay tuned, adapt to unfolding events, and trade with prudence! Best regards.
Short
by AliSignals
Inflation Symphony: Harmonizing AUDNZD's Dance with RBNZIn today's trading session, our attention is on AUDNZD, with a keen interest in a buying opportunity around the 1.07900 zone. Having broken out of a downtrend, the pair is currently in a correction phase, edging closer to the retrace area at 1.07800 support and resistance. A potential target could be the monthly resistance at 1.08700. Now, delving into the fundamental landscape, we turn to the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on January 23rd. Let's examine the recent CPI data to gauge potential implications. In the previous releases, we observe a trend of declining inflation: Oct 16, 2023: 1.8% Jul 18, 2023: 1.1% Apr 19, 2023: 1.2% Jan 24, 2023: 1.4% Oct 17, 2022: 2.2% Comparing these figures, there is a consistent downward trajectory in inflation. The expected CPI on January 23rd is 0.5%, indicating a potential continuation of subdued inflation. These numbers suggest a dovish outlook for the RBNZ, as persistently low inflation may prompt policymakers to maintain or adopt an accommodative stance. This, in turn, could impact the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), potentially weakening it. As traders evaluate this AUDNZD opportunity, it's essential to consider both technical and fundamental aspects for a comprehensive perspective. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
AUD/USD, NZD/USD hint at a round of risk-offIf commodity FX is anything to go by, we could be in for a bout of risk-off. The yen and US dollar were the strongest majors, which saw AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pull back from cycle highs and form bearish outside days alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The fact that AUD/USD reversed at its 200-day average and closed beneath the 200-day EMA makes it likely the 2-day bounce from support we anticipated has run its course. And with NZD/USD hitting new cycle lows with a bearish engulfing day and closed beneath its 100/200-day EMAs likely brings 60c into mind for bears, and 65c for AUD/USD bears.
Short
by CityIndex
Potential swing trade long on AUD/USDLike NZD/USD, the Aussie is refusing to roll over despite a strong US inflation report. That is in itself a sign of strength. The daily chart is yet to see a close beneath the Q3 open, and the lows are holding above the 50-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci level. A bullish RSI divergence also formed from the oversold zone to suggest a swing low has formed or is near. The bias remains bullish above last week's low ad for an initial move to 0.6750 - a break above which assumes a move for 0.6800.
Long
by CityIndex
AUD bears eye break below 65c, but a bounce could be due firstRisk aversion reigns supreme, casting a dark cloud over AUD/USD just before today’s employment report drops. A stellar jobs report is unlikely to spark calls for an imminent RBA hike, but it might prompt some short covering on the Aussie. Besides, there are early signs of stability above the 65c zone with Wednesday’s lower wick, which saw a false break of the lower keltner band. Perhaps some mean reversions is due. Bulls could seek dips towards 65c with a stop below and initially target the 200-day MA – a break above which assumes a deeper retracement and relief rally for global stocks. However, given our bias for the US dollar remains bullish over the weeks ahead, bears may want to seek evidence of a swing high forming below 0.6650 before committing to fresh shorts. A break beneath 65c brings 0.6370 into focus.
Long
by CityIndex
AUDCHF - Wait For The Bears 🐻Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, On Daily: Left Chart AUDCHF is retesting a strong resistance zone so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes. On H1: Right Chart 📈 For the bears to take over, we need a momentum candle close below the last major lower in gray. 📉 Meanwhile , AUDCHF would be bullish, and can still trade higher inside the resistance or even break it higher. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
1
Euraud a pullback to be supported and bounce?Tradingview Ideas: Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Watching for this pullback on lower timeframe to play out and hold , then look to long Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys