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AUDNZD BUY | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY . GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity AUDNZD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Long
by TheGrove
6
AUDJPY BUY | Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY . GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity AUDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Long
by TheGrove
6
Inflation not down under!Australia's CPI data, released yesterday, showcased figures hotter than anticipated. While this may not be 'reaction-worthy' news on its own, the scenario in Australia is worth delving into for several reasons. Inflation Trends Initially, let's consider inflation trends. In most western economies, although inflation remains above central bank targets, the trends are on a downward trajectory. However, when juxtaposed against those for the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), Australia's (AU) inflation rates on a month-over-month (MOM) and year-over-year (YOY) basis still stick out from the norm. Moreover, yesterday’s CPI prints surpassed consensus on both the YOY & MOM basis, indicating a notable deviation from expectations. In fact, Australia's YOY CPI is now on its longest streak above inflation expectations, and crucially, inflation expectations have ceased revising downwards. Given the higher inflation levels compared to its peers, consensus estimates, and expectations, inflation remains a significant concern for Australia. Interest Rates In the realm of interest rates, Australia has been a long-standing “pauser,” having maintained its policy rate unchanged since its June meeting. This prolonged pause now further opens the leeway to raise rates, especially given the “watch and see” approach adopted towards burgeoning inflation. Additionally, its interest rates remain low compared to the US, EU, Canada, and even New Zealand. As a result, on the real rates basis, Australia trails far behind, with its policy rate still 1.3% behind its inflation rate, significantly less restrictive compared to other economies that have already moved into positive real rates territory. We posit that the RBA is behind the curve and has room to react, given the considerably long period of pause and still negative real rates. The market seems to echo this sentiment too, as the odds for a hike in the next meeting surged post the CPI news, moving from 21% to 55%! Against multiple currencies, the AUD appears to be threading above the long-term support level, a threshold that has essentially defined AUD low. This strong support is expected to hold, given its tested and respected level across multiple currency crosses since 2020. Policy turning points between the two currencies, as indicated by the turn in the interest rate differential, have generally marked the trend change for the currency, notably for the AUDEUR pair. Given the persisting high inflation in Australia compared to various economies and metrics, should market expectations trend in the right direction, it's plausible the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may react with a rate hike. This action could tilt the rate differential and interest for the AUD, bolstering the currency. To capitalize on this bullish view on the AUD, we can consider a long position on the AUDEUR. We can set up this trade via a long position on the CME Australian Dollar Futures and a short position on the CME Euro FX futures to create a synthetic long AUD/EUR position at the current price level of 0.5951, stop at 0.5865 and take profit at 0.615. Given that one CME Euro FX futures is for 125,000 Euros and one CME Australian Dollar Futures is for 100,000 Australian Dollars, this suggest that we should use two Australian Dollar Futures to one Euro FX Futures to match the contract size, given that 125,000 Euros is roughly equivalent to 210,000 Australian Dollars at the prevailing exchange rate. Each 0.00005 increment in the Australian Dollar Futures is equal to 5 USD and each 0.00005 increment in the Euro FX Futures is equal to 6.25 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au www.rba.gov.au www.asx.com.au www.cmegroup.com
ECONOMICS:AUINTRLong
by inspirante
2
Bullish on the 1 HourWe made our trade analysis on this pair yesterday and we saw it play out our prediction. This pair played out right according to our prediction. We witnessed prices drop all the way to hit our 1 hour liquidity target. Market came very close to our 4 hour target but reversed Bullish. On the 1 hour chart, the market has reversed Bullish. We have a new Panzy Pips Bolck (PB) to trade from and we have refined it to a small zone. Price is expected to drop into that zone. That is our first step to trading this pair. From that zone, we expect to see Bullish Reversals, to drive prices all the way up to our 1 hour liquidity target at 0.63790.
Long
by PanzyPips
Australia Q3 CPI reaction – hikes are back on the tableThings move quickly when the central bank detail that their tolerance for inflation is low. Only recently it was the widely held consensus that interest rates in Australia were on hold for an extended period, and the next move was most likely a cut. Well, that school of thought has been blown out the window and rate hikes are now once again being priced to rise. The question, it seems, from purely observing market pricing, is whether we see a hike in November, and then a pause, or we see back-to-back hikes in November and December. The recent RBA minutes detailed that slower progress in getting to their inflation target (2-3%) would not be viewed favourably. This view was reinforced by RBA gov Bullock's speech (on Tuesday) when she detailed the bank won’t hesitate to hike if there is a material upward revision to the outlook on inflation. Consider the RBA forecast (in August) headline Q3 CPI at 4.5% and core Q3 CPI at 4% by December. So going off today’s numbers, with headline CPI at 5.4% and trimmed mean inflation at 5.2%, the prospect of a revision to the bank forecast in the upcoming Statement on Monetary Policy (on 10 Nov) is clearly very high – whether it is ‘material’ is a point of debate. Granted, inflation continues to moderate, but the pace of the decline would be frustratingly slow in the RBA's view. We can also add the Q3 CPI print to a better-than-expected Q2 GDP print (at 2.1%), September unemployment at 3.6% and house prices further rising, and the RBA may see a hike as a necessary evil. Market reaction Australia's 30-day interest rate futures have reacted quite aggressively to the CPI data, and we now see the 18bp of hikes priced for the 7 Nov RBA meeting; equating to a 73% chance of a hike. If they don’t hike in November, December is priced at 100%. In fact, there is a small premium we could see at a 25bp hike in November and another 25bp hike in December. The rise in the market interest rate expectations, with a spike in Aussie 3yr govt bond yields from 4.18% to 4.28% has been good for 40 pips in AUD, with AUDUSD pushing to 0.6400. AUDCAD has been the biggest percentage mover on the day and has broken the October highs. AUDNZD has been a tear of late – and remains one of the cleanest expressions of Aussie rates – with price breaking through 1.0900 and into a big supply zone seen since June. In equities, we’ve seen the AUS200 falling from 6876 to hit a session low of 6832, although we’re seeing better buyers off these lows. ASX200 banks are heavy, as are REITS – consumer stocks are holding in remarkably well at present. Upcoming event risk to AUD and AUS200 traders While the Q3 CPI was always the big event risk, if we look at data ahead of the 7 November RBA meeting, we only see retail sales (on 30 Oct) that could affect market pricing, but sales would need to be very weak. Developments in geopolitics and broad risk sentiment in markets could also play a factor, but again, it seems unlikely to derail market pricing/expectations. Governor Bullock speaks again tomorrow along with assistant governor Christopher Kent (09:00 AEDT), so this could give us a clear understanding of how the core of the RBA sees the CPI print – they could essentially guide to a hike here.
Long
by Pepperstone
EURAUD some more upside to 1.686?Eur has been pretty strong past period against aud, has been in my watchlist /tradelist as well. Should have bit more upside. Let's see **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
3
AUDUSD Buy confirmed if the 1D MA50 breaks.The AUDUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since February 02. Yesterday it hit again Support 1 (0.62885) for the 3rd time in October and held it. The first hit was also on the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down and even though there is still room before it hits the hard bottom of the pattern, the Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows) on the 1D RSI in the past 2 months, indicates that this is already a strong buying candidate. If a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), something we haven't seen since July 31 2023, buying will be confirmed. Our target it at least the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.66000. The June 16 rebound even hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which currently is above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a key long-term Resistance. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
AUD/USD rises for fifth day (but resistance looms)The Aussie has risen for a fifth day, but it is worth noting that minor rallies tend to peter out around the 5-6 day mark. Price action on the 1-hour chart also suggests the rally could be corrective, against its drop from 65c-63c. Given a bearish RSI divergence is forming on the 1-hour RSI (14) and the 50-day EMA resides around the weekly R1 pivot, we're looking for evidence of a swing high and for momentum to turn lower.
Short
by CityIndex
1
AUD/USD looks set to extend its bounceThe Aussie fell in line with our bearish bias last week, thanks to stronger-than-expected CPI data from the US and the Middle East conflict. Yet despite the risk-off sentiment, the Aussie held above 63c last week and formed a bullish engulfing day on Monday. A bullish engulfing candle also formed on the 4-hour candle, prices are back above the September low and are now considering a break above the monthly pivot. Given the liquidity gap (LG) that formed during last week's decline, a break above last week's high assumes the LG could be filled if prices break higher. The near-term bias remains bullish above the 4-hour candle low.
Long
by CityIndex
Bullish Outlook for GBP/AUDI believe the GBP/AUD pair remains a favorable buy. It appears to be severely oversold, and on the larger time frames, it continues to exhibit a bullish sentiment. Over the coming weeks, which may extend to a total of 3-5 weeks, we anticipate movement towards our targets. It's advisable to monitor this currency pair closely, as it presents substantial upside potential. Please remember to trade responsibly. I'll continue to update as needed. Hope you all have a great trading week.
Long
by GlobalHorns
11
EURAUD continues in the upward move.EURAUD - 24h expiry There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 1.6825 will confirm the bullish momentum. Short term RSI is moving higher. We look to Buy at 1.6750 (stop at 1.6690) Our profit targets will be 1.6900 and 1.6930 Resistance: 1.6850 / 1.6900 / 1.6925 Support: 1.6750 / 1.6700 / 1.6675 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
AUDJPY Solid short signal.AUDJPY is on a 1-2-3 pattern like the one in July, currently on the 3rd led down. This is basically resembling Descending Triangle pattern. One last bearish leg to give before it breaks upwards. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 94.000 (Support A). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) patterns between the two sequences are also similar both inside Channel Down formations. This also points to a bearish leg next. Please like, follow and comment!!
Short
by TradingBrokersView
AUDUSD BEARISH SETUP|LONGHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity AUDUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Short
by TheGrove
AUDUSD will go Up soon(⏰(4-Hour)⏰🏃‍♂️ AUDUSD is running in 🟡 Price Reversal Zones(PRZ) 🟡 and near the Important Support line and Support line . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive valleys . 🔔I expect AUDUSD will go UP at least to the Resistance line(2) . Australian Dollar/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( AUDUSD ) 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
45
AUD trader – a big CPI print puts RBA hikes back on the table Positioning Clients are skewed long, with 63% of open interest is held looking for upside in AUDUSD. In the broad market, the big flow desks report that hedge funds (leveraged players) are small net short of AUDs, while ‘real money’ (pension funds, insurance, asset managers) have a large net short AUD exposure. Factors that could move the AUD? • The RBA minutes have put the market on notice that RBA rate hikes could make a comeback – they detailed that slower progress to get to the inflation to target (2-3%) would not be viewed favourably, and they have a lower tolerance for inflation. Housing is a key focal point, with Australian city house prices gaining for 7 straight months – the RBA noted that they’re seeing higher unit labour cost growth, coming in a time of declining productivity, which they see as inflationary. • Today’s speech by RBA gov Bullock didn’t see her push back on the markets view that the minutes were considered hawkish, and the Governor didn’t guide interest rate expectations lower – this offers rates traders real confidence in their pricing. • What is priced? Aus 30-day interest rate futures now price a 34% chance of a hike at the 7 November RBA meeting and a 54% chance of a hike at the December meeting – the rates door is more than ajar. • Next Wednesday’s Australia Q3 CPI (11:30 AEDT) is, therefore, a big-ticket event risk for AUD traders and could heavily influence rate pricing and therefore the AUD. It’s too early to see the consensus expectations for the trimmed mean CPI forecast, but headline CPI is expected to fall to around 5.2% YoY (from 6%) – recall, the RBA have forecast inflation at 4.25% by year-end, so an above consensus print could suggest the bank revise their forecasts higher. Anything above 5.4% should make the 7 Nov RBA meeting a live and pricing closer to 50%. • An above consensus Q3 CPI read, and we would also see the market price a hike in the Dec meeting as a near-done deal – the AUD should like that. • AUD bulls will want to see a higher Chinese equity market with the 10-day rolling correlation between the CSI300 index and AUDUSD at reasonable 0.54. While we see the PBoC pumping liquidity into the market, China/HK property stocks can't find a friend, and we eye a thoroughly expected default today from Country Garden, as they scramble to make a $15m coupon payment. AUD bulls need to see a far better tape in the China equity market to support vs the USD – the AUD crosses seem the better tactical play. • While ongoing concerns around China’s property sector keeps international money managers from moving overweight the region, China’s economy has likely troughed and is improving – we saw that in today’s Q3 GDP print and high frequency data dump. • Calls that the govt is prepared to blow out the deficit above 3% of GDP, by issuing $130b of new debt to fund infrastructure projects is a bullish consideration. However, the recent raft of mini-stimulus measures should start to be seen in the data flow. China’s economy should improve from here, although the property sector needs to be carefully monitored. • While we watch for direction from China equity, we see Australia’s relative terms of trade (ToT) on the rise – while the sensitivity we see between the AUD and its ToT comes and goes, the fact we see it rising should support the AUD. • With geopolitical issues very much front and centre, trading the AUD against other risk-associated crosses makes sense – the US economy still looks incredibly resilient vs G10 countries and a higher AUDUSD would require the VIX index to pull back below 14% and the S&P500 to climb higher (as well as China equity). What’s the play? The best AUD bullish expression of late has been against the NZD, given both are China proxies and we can see on the daily that the market shares this view – momentum studies show higher levels into 1.0850/1.0900 before we see better supply are favoured. AUDJPY approaches the recent highs of 96.00 and I favour it to get there, but there are Japanese intervention risks with short JPY positions at this juncture. The JPY also looks attractive as a geopolitical hedge – that said, if the market feels the situation in the Middle East will be contained and FX vol falls further, then AUDJPY could benefit from carry and diverging central bank policies. GBPAUD shorts have been my favoured play, and technically price is favoured lower - we do have UK CPI due out at 5 pm today and there are risks with being short GBP. Unless it’s a significant upside surprise (consensus 6.6% headline, 6% yoy core), then the BoE are on hold for an extended period.
Long
by Pepperstone