Audchf keeps getting lowerLikely pullback to short,watching on lower timeframe like h1.
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D-AUD
GBPAUD Buy signal at the bottom of the Channel UpThe GBPAUD pair gave us an excellent buy signal last time we looked at it (see chart below) on May 9:
The price remains within the 6 month Channel Up pattern and is currently rising after a Higher Low formation on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) early this week. This is a bullish signal, based on which we are targeting the 1.97300 Resistance. That would be a +4.65% rise from the bottom, which as this chart shows, has happened twice.
If however the price breaks below the Channel Up, we will open a short when it breaches the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is holding as Support since March 03 2023, and target the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.83150. That will make also contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). An early sell signal will be when the 1D RSI breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since March 07 2022.
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GBP/AUDFast intraday search through my watchlist.
You can follow the price with candle confirmation or whatever strategy you have.
None of these are 100 %, complete confident analyses.. this market is all about probability .. so try to work on your risk management and self-control.. all the traders in the world can tell for sure what's going to happen or where the price is going in the next 1 hour.
Ps. Leave your comment and thoughts.
I posted this position a couple of days ago .. still valid.
AUD/JPY: Swing trade short below historical resistance zoneA 2-bar bearish reversal pattern has formed at a historical resistance zone just below 96. Prior breaks above it in June and September failed last year. On both occasions the market fell near the 91 area before retesting the resistance zone, and in October we saw prices accelerate lower.
What could trigger such a move this time around? Whilst nobody is expecting the BOJ to change policy tomorrow, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t disregard its potential. And that would likely be a very strong reaction for the yen to send AUD/JPY lower. However, a more likely scenario is that the BOJ upgrade their inflation forecasts, and that could prompt some speculation that the BOJ are closer to widening their YCC (yield curve control) band or removing it al together. Of course, a bout of risk off is usually always bearish for AUD/USD.
Either way, the bias remains bearish beneath Tuesday’s high, and the initial target is the lows just above 93.27.
AUD/JPY Long WIll make Record HighsAustralian Dollar Japanese Yen traded at 94.2260 this Tuesday June 13th, increasing 0.0160 or 0.02 percent since the previous trading session. Looking back, over the last four weeks, AUDJPY gained 3.35 percent. Over the last 12 months, its price rose by 1.26 percent. Looking ahead, we forecast Australian Dollar Japanese Yen to be priced at 93.7636 by the end of this quarter and at 93.3522 in one year, according to Trading Economics global macro models projections and analysts expectations.
AUD/JPY nears weekly high at 94.22, gaining for the sixth consecutive day.
The pair shows upward bias, but RSI and three-day RoC indicators suggest a potential retreat.
Following support for AUD/JPY lies at a June 12 low of 93.84, followed by the 93.00 mark.
AUD/JPY grinds near intraday high, stays firmer around the highest levels since late November 2022.
Hawkish RBA concerns versus disappointment from Japan PPI, dovish comments from BoJ’s Wakatabe favor pair buyers.
Yields, stock futures struggle to justify cautious optimism in the markets amid lack of major data/evens and holiday in Australia.
AUD/JPY stays defensive around 94.00 as the key week comprising multiple central bank announcements and top-tier data begins with the Aussie holidays.
Even if the pre-data anxiety and the King’s Birthday in Australia limit the cross-currency pair’s momentum, the bulls keep the reins at the highest levels since late November 2022, marked the previous day, amid divergence of the monetary policy bias surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Furthermore, downbeat Japan inflation clues and the BoJ officials’ dovish comments also keep the pair buyers hopeful.
Earlier in the day, Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for May dropped for the fifth consecutive month to 5.1% YoY from 5.8% previous readings and 5.5% market forecasts. That said, monthly figures also disappointed Yen traders with -0.7% MoM outcome, versus -0.2% expected and 0.2% prior.
On the other hand, BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe rules out any change in the BoJ monetary policy during this week’s meeting as he said, “Don't expect a change from BOJ at this week's meeting.”
It’s worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) surprise rate hike joined the firmer China Caixin Services PMI to underpin the bullish bias about the AUD/JPY pair. Additionally, dovish comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda add strength to the AUD/JPY pair’s upside momentum.
However, the market’s lack of conviction ahead of the top-tier data/events joins the mixed signals from China to challenge the AUD/JPY pair’s upside. That said, concerns about the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) rate hike gains momentum of late as the Chinese central bank’s Governor Yi Gang said in a statement on Friday that China's Q2 GDP YoY growth is expected to be high mainly due to base effects. The policymaker added, “There is plenty of room for policy adjustment.”
Looking ahead, AUD/JPY pair may witness a lackluster day amid the Aussie holiday. However, Thursday’s Australia jobs report and Friday’s BoJ monetary policy announcements are the keys for the pair traders to watch. Given the dovish bias from the BoJ and expectations of upbeat Aussie data, as well as the recent hawkish surprise from the RBA, the quote may remain firmer.
Technical analysis
The overbought RSI (14) line joins multiple hurdles marked during late November 2022, around 94.10-15, to challenge the AUD/JPY buyers. The downside move, however, remains doubtful until breaking the 200-DMA support of 91.77.
AUDNZD Sell signal on the Symmetrical ResistanceThe AUDNZD pair is consolidating on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 4 straight 1D candles, having formed a 1D Golden Cross last week. Even though that is a technically bullish formation, as long as it doesn't break above the 1.093250 Symmetrical Resistance, a rejection seems more probable. As long as it holds, we will sell and target the Higher Lows trend-line at 1.06200.
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AUDCAD Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDCAD for a buying opportunity around 0.89500 zone, AUDCAD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.89500 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
Potential swing trade long on AUD/USD 1-hour chartAUD/USD pulled back for a second day on Monday thanks to weak data from China and rising geopolitical tensions as Russia have backed to of a key gain deal. Support was found around the weekly pivot point, RBA ‘pause’ high and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the subsequent rally suggests a swing low is in place.
The RBA minutes are due in ~2 hours, and we’d welcome any pullback towards 68c which could help improve the potential reward to risk ratio for longs. Of course, if the minutes are as dovish as hoped then AUD runs the risk of breaking beneath yesterday’s low and invalidating the near-term bullish bias.
But we suspect the minutes may be a little more hawkish than liked, which leaves the potential for it to pop higher. We have a target near the upper 1-day implied volatility band around 0.6850.
AUD/NZD to benefit from yield differentials? A strong 2-day rally this week suggests AUD/NZD has printed its swing low at 1.07266. Whilst NZ inflation data was stronger than expected in Q2 and saw AUD/ZD pull back to 1.0800, we suspect it is still lower from the prior reads to allow the RBNZ to hold rates steady with an economy already in a recession.
We therefore see today's retracement lower to 1.080 as a potential gift for bulls, and for a move to 1.0900 or even 1.1000 over the coming weeks. The RBA may still have to hike once or more and that could see expectations of a lower RBNZ-RBA cash rate and support AUD/NZD.
A break beneath this week's low invalidates the bullish bias.
AUDCHF: Buy opportunity emergingAUDCHF is trading inside a Channel Down pattern for more than one year with the 1D timeframe bearish (RSI = 38.270, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 43.501) as the price is under its middle and the 1D MA50. The 1D MA200 is located exactly on its top.
The 1D MACD is in the process of completing a Bullish Cross, which has been a strong buy signal inside this pattern. Even though the price can extend to 0.57000 to complete a -7.55% decline from the recent Lower High (similar declines have been -8.06%, -7.94% and -7.55% since the start of the pattern so we use the minimum scenario), once the Bullish Cross is formed, we will buy and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 0.59000).
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AUDCHF Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDCHF for a buying opportunity around 0.58500 zone, AUDCHF was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.58500 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDCAD Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDCAD for a buying opportunity around 0.89200 zone, AUDCAD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.89200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.