Resistance overhead?The DAX (DE40) could rise towards a resistance level at 18,263.22 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price stall around this level before potentially making a bearish reaction to drop lower?
Pivot: 18,263.22
Support: 18,005.20
Resistance: 18,431.16
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D-DAX
DAX up until yield curve reverses upwardSurrounded by bears > i thought I'd post a bullish view.
On the weekly chart SMA 7, 20, 50 & EMA 200 all pointing up...
SMA 50 about non crossing EMA 200 will be the confirmation the trend i snot over... we'll see end of week with NFP.
If bull is confirmed Targets are on chart... Estimated ATH summer/sept 2023
Red line invalidate the concept !
#DAX, #GER30 is ready to fall.-----------DAX DOWNSIDE MOVE IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN-----------
DAX index shows a few signs that it is ready to deep dive. The course is at all time high. Economic indicators like GDP, interes rate, emloyment don't support that optimistic behaviour. Weekly RSI is at overbought territory. And daily RSI shows divergence. I think it is time to re-consider the long positions at least or rather start to build a short position on German stock index.
Potential bounce to new ATHs?The DAX (DE40) could fall towards an overlap support at 17,903.18 which has been identified as a pivot point. Price could potentially bounce off this level to make a new all-time-high (ATH).
Pivot: 17,903.18
Support: 17,659.90
Resistance: 18,263.12
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DAX, will the next crisis end the current phase?Hello everyone,
this is not a usual trading analysis. So don't take any trades from monthly levels, as you can't manage the risk at all. What you can see is my try to figure out how the DAX went through different states of price development and really interesting to see is, that every big crisis ended one phase and opened a new one.
In my point of view we are currently at the way to the upper boundary of the recent phase and should reach it within the next year. The question is, where will the price finally find a solid ATH and start to correct? According to my last daily analysis a strong zone could be around 17.600, but if the economy is holding really strong into next years, higher prices are possible of course.
If you want to be in the big short trade, that I'm anticipating from the upper boundary, you have to wait patiently for a fundamental crisis, which has more impact than the banking crisis, energy crisis or the current wars, as they didn't stop the price for a long time.
The only reason I can anticipate for now is a comeback of high inflation with even higher interest rates, that end up in a big recession and the consequences for the banking and financial system. I will monitor this scenario next year, especially the month february and march are likely to offer crisis potential.
DAX: Overbought on 1D and in need of a technical correction.What makes us expect a technical correction this time, is the similarity in terms of RSI with mid February 2023. It took another 3 weeks for the price to decline but not before the RSI completed a Cup and Handle pattern. That was a -8.00% decline, we are aiming from the current levels for a -6.40% decline, which happened another 2 times, so our target is near the S1 level (TP = 16,900).
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Dax Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
DAX H4 | Falling to pullback supportThe DAX (GER40) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 17,658.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 17,451.85
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that sits under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 18,255.53
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DAX Correction very likely. Target 17100.DAX (DE40) is extending a very strong Bullish Leg, which started after the previous short-term correction ended on January 17 2024 with a contact on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is part of an overall Bullish Wave that emerged on the latest Higher Low (October 27 2023) of the 1.5 year Channel Up.
However as the 1D MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross (which has been a sell signal within this pattern) while the price is already on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension level (which is where it was rejected on the previous Bullish Leg on March 07 2023), we are turning bearish on DAX on the medium-term, targeting the previous Resistance at 17100.
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DAX to find support at market price?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17904.
We look to buy dips.
50 4hour EMA is at 17685.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Offers ample risk/reward to buy at the market.
We look to Buy at 17690 (stop at 17590)
Our profit targets will be 17940 and 17990
Resistance: 17760 / 17907 / 18000
Support: 17710 / 17618 / 17500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
If Germany is the sick man of Europe. #Bayer looking deathlyThe #EU is Marxist, Socialist, and is involved in Price setting
That didn't work out too well for USSR as economic powerhouse
and so too we see the once great German economy being brought to it's knees.
It is being de-industralized and being brought down in a great economic levelling of the union
Such a shame
Bayer Pharmaceutical is arguably a company we could do without .. so this chart does not upset me too much ...
But it is major component of the #DAX and highlights the economic pain that Germany may indeed go through in the next recession.
#202411 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daGood day and i hope you are well.
There is a theory of markets, that the ‘Generals’ usually lead the way for the next impulse. I have no idea about the proven probabilities of that but let’s just talk about some big stocks here, which supports my bigger bearish market thesis, that this still might be the blow-off top at the end of a very long ongoing bull trend which is exhausted and will turn around soon.
Apple: Just broke below or is at the monthly 20ema; -15% from the ATH; 2 consecutive red months and the third is forming; clear sell signal below 160
Google: below the weekly 20ema; -15% from ATH; increasing volume on bear days; will become clear sell below 120
Nvidia: The peak bubble of bubbles -11.18% on Friday with very high volume; bulls will take profits for their lifes below 800
JP Morgan: holding strong at the highs - might be the last to turn around - just printed 2 bad looking bars for the bulls
dax
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000.
Not much new happening compared to last week. Bulls broke above a bull channel, got a retest of that breakout trend line and made a new ath.
bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again.
bear case: Everything in here is very low probability. Bulls are in full control and odds favor the bulls then. Best bears can get here is probably a trading range 17600 - 18000. Bears have not done anything to close this enormous bull gap 17150 - 17670 on the daily chart.
outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday.
short term: up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged
#EWG German Market Index ready for a retracement?We seem to be reversing off the top of this multi-channel area at 31.25. In Addition, RSI has bearish divergence and we also recently had a demark13 countdown which could signal an exhaustion in trend. Watch for a reversal to take place off the current area. Perhaps a move back to the 50day moving average which currently sits at +- 29.60 and rising daily, is a potential short term target.
DAX Remains In UptrendDAX has seen some deep pullback in 2023, but it was A-B-C drop into the important 14400-14600 area. We can see nice and clean impulsive recovery from that support area and back to new highs, so bullish trend is back and it's very strong one; a move that can resume even higher after recent consolidation. Ideally that's wave 4 that can be now completed with current sharp and impulsive bounce, so be aware of a continuation higher for wave 5, especially if breaks 16800 bullish confirmation level.
How far can Dax continue to grow?The DAX stock index is approaching the overlapping zone of bullish targets, and we expect to end our move by recording the historical ceiling in the overlapping zone and FTR doing for the broken ceilings.
Bullish market continuation to complete the third waveGreetings
Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
DAX H4 | Potential bullish breakoutThe DAX (GER40) could rise towards a potential breakout level and make a bullish continuation towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 17,830.55
Why we like it:
There is a potential breakout level (wait for 1-hour candle to close above 17,830.55 for a breakout confirmation)
Stop Loss: 17,569.05
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 18,082.38
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
#DAX - 6 MarI was looking for a move lower for DAX yesterday and we got the move (). Levels worked perfect despite the somewhat choppy movement (DAX was strong despite weakness in the US indices). The strong level below held perfectly while the level above also provide a good short during the US session and mentioned in the group chat.
If I look at the daily candle, price action still looks bearish and toppish to me. I am still in the opinion of weakness in DAX for today.
Currently DAX is rather strong; so I am not surprised if DAX test the 17743, form a double top but come down lower, with 17657 as first target and further down to 17565. If I am right on the down move today, I would think the magnitude of down move will not be as significant as that of yesterday.
But do note that Powell will be speaking today. Not sure what he will say, but IMO market is bulled up for rate cuts. If Powell say something about not cutting rates, that will be bad news IMO.
Looking for a bounce off the 17565 level, but if break, strong levels below would be 17479 and 17417.
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
Today most markets showed some restraint and bulls actually began taking profits, which is very unusual for the last weeks, to say the least. We don’t know if bulls will be more cautious buying at the highs this time and we go more sideways or bulls will continue the pump further.
I will give an update on Bitcoin tomorrow on tradingview (link on x) and Oil in the after hour update tomorrow. Oil is bullish as long as it stays above the daily 20ema which is around 77.5 right now. So bulls bought it today and i expect more sideways the next days.
dax
Dax is in a weak bear channel since Friday’s ATH and i expect the range 17600 - 17850 to hold for more days, unless something unexpected happens or is reported.
bull case: Bulls keeping this still far far above the daily 20ema which is at 17400. As long as they stay above that, the see the market as bullish and will buy the dips. Today was an expected trading range day where the close was near the open (about 20 points above). I’d be surprised if bears can get it below 17630 and as long as that holds, we will trade back and forth inside the weak bear channel for now.
bear case: Bears are probably euphoric because they stopped the market from making another daily new ath. They are taking quick profits and waiting for higher prices to short, which is why we ranged today. Bears next target is 17600 and then 17400 which is the current daily 20ema and the low of last week.
short term: neutral - range between 17600 - 17760 (weak bear channel) - break below is 17600 next. above is retest of ath 17846
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024.
trade of the day: gap close last Friday 17763 and selling the big bear bar 16 as it was forming. was very clear on the 15m chart because there were 4 bars that could not close above 17760
DAX Time to respect the 17-year Channel and correct.Exactly 3 months ago (December 06 2023, see chart below), we set a 17800 Target on DAX (DE40) and the index hit that level yesterday:
At the time DAX was the first major stock index to hit new All Time Highs (ATH) and as we mentioned it "sent a message to indices globally". And followed they did, as all markets followed this lead and rose aggressively.
This time however, DAX is sending a bearish signal as by hitting 17800 it reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 17-year Channel Up that started on the July 2007 High, right at the peak of the U.S. Housing Crisis.
At the same time it almost hit the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which is a key level as every time the index (nearly) hit it (May 2014, January 2018, February 2020), it corrected by at least -15%. As a result we think a test of January's Low at 16350 would be a modest target, even though it might seem unrealistic under the current market sentiment. A -15% decline would even test the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 2022 and the post Inflation Crisis recovery.
Note that we currently only starting the 3rd Mega Cycle. Both previous 2 peaked their Higher Highs on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (measuring from Sine Wave Top to Sine Wave Top). So on a multi-year basis, as investors we look to take advantage of these corrections and buy for an ultimate 2028 Target at 20500.
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DAX to find buyers at market?GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action resulted in a new all-time high at 17817.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
We look to buy dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 17684.
We look to Buy at 17700 (stop at 17615)
Our profit targets will be 17920 and 17975
Resistance: 17817 / 17900 / 18000
Support: 17688 / 17600 / 17500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
#DAX - 4 MarOn Friday we saw a change in the strength of DAX as it hit new ATH but came down after while US indices was stronger and rallied to ATH after. Some rotation that is, given how DAX was rallying the days prior, while US indices, especially on Thursday, dipped and recovered, setting up for the continuation on Friday.
DAX I gave a long from bottom of PZ but DAX hit the mid of PZ and recovered 70points. Price is opening at the PZ now.
Overall we can see weekly price action is bullish so could see further upside this week, but I am not discounting a possible pullback first. A pullback to 17459 will still not change the trend.
Daily wise, bearish divergence so could be sign for a pullback. Could do a short below 17753 PZ, or wait for the longs after a pullback.
Target for short would beg to 17629/47 which is a strong level, and would give an opportunity to look for longs for a move higher. If market continue to go up from here, I would like to take a counter trend short at 17845 back to PZ.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
I let my thoughts go wild this week so have my tl;dr here:
tl;dr: IMO this is the end of the long ongoing bull trend we had and the climactic moves at the end are not as rare as many think. That does not help you with shorts right now. Scalp long where big or many consecutive bull bars appear and wait for bears to show up again. I think we are very close to the end. Do. Not. Short. Yet.
For the people who bear my writing… I dare you to find me an extremer example of a more climactic move at the end of a long ongoing trend than this one. US markets have reasonable trend lines and channels which they respect but the dax is just in a parabolic up move without stopping. Which makes me think everyone and their dog was/is short and covering, fueling the fire. But i will die on that hill, that this is the end of the bull trend and not the beginning of a new one. I called the -30% (at least) drop for this year and i stick to that.
I try to keep to price action for my trading as much as i can and most macro news are not affecting the market as most people think they do. Now comes the but. I live in Germany and we are in an economic downtrend with very high rates compared to the last 14 years. Find someone which company says they are hiring extensively and outlooks are raised. DM me then please.
Markets are a casino in the short term but Macroeconomics (i like to call it macro schmackro) will catch up eventually. It always has and always will. One very clear indicator, which everyone knows and rarely listens to are people around you after a trend has been going on for quite some time. Goes as follows:
You hear colleagues, neighbors, granny and your dead dog talking about markets only going ti*ts up and options are the name of the game. Crypto is yes yes yes buybuybuy. Then you look at the chart and see that it has been going up for a long long time. That’s where these trends end. Something news worthy will come up on the horizon and you can be sure many people who will lose their savings, pension and whatnot over the next 2 years. This was and always will be a boom bust cycle. The bust probably does not go below some pre-bust levels but it will bust as it always has.
Does that mean i call to short this and the high is in? Well, i thought the late December price action formed a credible top but on the weekly it was a rather small pullback. You simply can’t short into this if you can’t take the pain. Markets are giving no signal that the highs are in, so you should scalp long and wait for markets to become more two sided.
dax
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls probably want to touch that big green bull trend line at around 17500 which is pretty far fetched imo. Market is still not accepting anything above 17100 and bulls took profits going into the weekend.
I think the low probability breakout above happened and trapped many traders who sold everything above 17100, which worked since mid December. Probably exhaustion but bears need to prove that early next week.
bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000.
bear case: Easier to have bear targets but bears have done nothing this week so everything i write here is low probability and you should only look for these targets when bears clearly show strength and making lower highs and lower lows. First target is a 1h close below Fridays open 17442 and the 1h 20ema is around there too. 17400 was tested multiple times on Friday and i think we could range there first. For the very low probability of a big sign of strength by the bears and a sell-off below 17380, next would be the uber monster bullish gap 17160 which is also my thesis for the exhaustion gap. My bearish thesis only lives if we close the next week below 17000 because the monthly close is the most important thing now for bears. If bulls close above 17400, it is a clear buy signal for higher time frame traders/algo's and it means acceptance. We had two daily closes above my invalidation target and if bulls can keep this gap open, we see higher prices.
outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 17461 and now we are at 17775. i said sideways to up but it was only up. not the worst outlook but the extend of the up can only be surprising to anyone
short term: neutral is the only reasonable thing here. after so many buy climaxes without more pullback, the odds of continuation drop to almost impossible. does that mean we go down from here? hell no. it’s just very low probability that this can continue without a meaningful pullback. but these things happen and they can go on for longer than most can stay solvent. if bears won’t shop up, scalp long where bulls show strength.
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024.
I have drawn 2 possible paths and the bearish one is the one i think will play out. maybe not time-wise but price-wise.
