DAX Watch this low risk November trading plan.It's been a bit long since we last took a trade on DAX (DE40) but it didn't disappoint as it hit both our buy and sell targets (see chart below) within the 3-month Channel Down:
The rebound took place within the 6-month Support Zone and slightly under the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), similar to the March 20 rebound. The fractals are identical as they both rebounded aggressively, indicating strong demand inside the Support Zone. Both also formed a strong 1D MACD Bullish Cross straight after they bottomed.
The price is now on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at the top of the Channel Down, and the last two days failed to close the 1D candle above the MA50, despite breaking it. The Resistance pressure is getting stronger since this is also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the July 31 top.
As a result, we are willing to sell the Lower Highs top of the Channel Down and target 15050 (can go even to the 0.618 Fib level but we seek short-term exposure for now) but only as long as the candles close below the 1D MA50. Upon the first 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and resume buying, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 15635.
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D-DAX
10112023 - #DAXDAX seemed to have gain strength as it is relatively strong yesterday; basing off the PZ and going to new highs. But US weakness resulted in DAX pulling back also.
Are we going to get a next leg down now? TBH US indices are more bearish and definitely oversold and thus many would likely be looking for further downside continuation today for US indices.
But IMO, DAX's closure yesterday is not bearish, or even somewhat bullish. Price is between PZ and DBZ, which is neutral to bullish. Overall, I would say to look for further upside; with 15195 as a low risk level to go long, for a move back to yesterday's high (15359) and even further to 15411.
DAX to turn into an uptrend?DE30EUR - 24h expiry
The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment.
Our short term bias remains positive.
The overnight dip has been bought into and there is scope for further bullish pressure going into this morning.
A break of yesterdays high would confirm bullish momentum.
Short term RSI is moving higher.
We look to Buy a break of 15301 (stop at 15201)
Our profit targets will be 15551 and 15601
Resistance: 15291 / 15400 / 15500
Support: 15180 / 15100 / 15068
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 09/11/2023In the higher time frame, we are working on a wave ((2)) correction down. This wave ((2)) is unfolding as an ABC or WXY structure. The lower time frame favors a WXY structure. We are currently working on the wave X as an expanded flat structure. The wave ((c)) of this expanded flat does not look finished.
DAX to get back on the old tracks?GER40 - 24h expiry
Daily signals are mildly bearish.
Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning.
A break of the recent low at 15070 should result in a further move lower.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Short term momentum is bearish.
We look to Sell a break of 15058 (stop at 15158)
Our profit targets will be 14808 and 14758
Resistance: 15150 / 15230 / 15270
Support: 15070 / 15000 / 14900
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
GERMAN40 BEARISH OUTLOOKGermany, a European economic powerhouse, is facing the threat of a technical recession as its industrial production, particularly in the automotive sector, has experienced a significant decline. In September, industrial production fell by 1.4%, surpassing the projected 0.4% drop, and the third quarter saw a 2.1% decrease in total production. The automotive industry, a crucial part of Germany's economy, reported a 5% drop in vehicle production from the previous month, alongside declines in other vital sectors like electrical equipment and pharmaceuticals. While there was a slight increase in factory orders for September, primarily due to large-scale orders and backlogs, economists remain cautious about the potential for future economic growth.
This economic downturn is worrisome for Germany, as it may be heading toward a technical recession, characterized by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Policymakers and economists are likely to closely monitor the situation and may consider measures to support the economy, such as fiscal stimulus or incentives to boost consumer spending and business investment. However, the situation is not isolated and may be influenced by global economic trends and factors, making it essential to keep an eye on international economic developments to gauge Germany's economic prospects in the coming months.
On a technical note, the daily graph had produced an Evening Star pattern that is reliable pattern for a downtrend. RSI is still on the neutral site, but MACD is already showing sell signals.
If this trend continues the price might reach levels of 14 977.5. In the opposite scenario the price might reach levels of 15 315.21
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 08/11/2023In the higher time frame, we are working on a wave ((2)) correction down. This wave ((2)) is unfolding as an ABC or WXY structure. The lower time frame favors a WXY structure. We are currently working on the wave X as an expanded flat structure. The wave ((c)) of this expanded flat does not look finished.
07112023 - #DAXYesterday's plan worked to almost perfection () as it hit my sell limit at exactly 15226 before selling down over 100points. Did not hit my target though before the bounce.
As mentioned yesterday, DAX is somewhat weak and only one I said to look for shorts in and truly, it was much weak even when US indices was somewhat strong.
Overall, yesterday was a small range day and price action is somewhat bearish. Still it might be better to trade later than earlier. IMO if market pulls back to 15170, it would be a level to watch; a rejection could see another move down to 15024/15000. If however, market just goes down from here, 15090 would be a price I am inclined to watch for a long for a move higher.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 06/11/2023 (+ Higher TF)In the higher time frame, we are working on a wave ((2)) correction down. This wave ((2)) is unfolding as an ABC or WXY structure. The lower time frame favors a WXY structure. We are currently working on the wave X as an expanded flat structure.
DAX: Approaching the 1D MA50. Buy the pullback.Target achieved on DAX (chart at the end) as the price made a straight rebound at the bottom of the Channel Down. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSi = 52.756, MACD = -158.600, ADX = 30.783) and being that close to the 1D MA50 without being bullish already, makes a short term pullback possible. On the long term, we expect a bullish breakout over the Channel Down as the current rally originated after an (almost) one month long 1D RSI Bullish Divergence. So as long as the price gets rejected under the 1D MA50, we will wait for a 4H MA50 pullback to open the new long and target the R1 level (TP = 15,575), a candidate to make contact with the 1D MA200 as well.
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 02/11/2023In the higher time frame, we are working on a wave ((2)) correction down. The primary scenario is now suggesting that wave ((2)) is unfolding as an ABC. The five waves down from the ATH might also indicate a bearish expanded flat scenario. In the lower time frame, the final wave ((v)) of wave 5 of wave A looks incomplete. We didn't get our move down yet so the market might surprise us with an expanded flat structure. The expanded flat structure also fits in the secondary scenario as a wave X.
DAX to turn positive?GER40 - 24h expiry
The previous day's bullish engulfing candle led to further buying yesterday.
3 positive daily performances in succession.
Short term momentum is bullish.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Bullish divergence is expected to support prices.
14936 has been pivotal.
A break of the recent high at 14936 should result in a further move higher.
We look to Buy a break of 14941
(stop at 14841)
Our profit targets will be 15191 and 15271
Resistance: 14885 / 14936 / 15000
Support: 14850 / 14800 / 14700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
#DAX - 01112023DAX was much bullish yesterday compared to US indices. 14820 was my sell level and it did give 70points but market closed near the highs.
FOMC today and it is tricky. IMO it looks like a slow move up to go short into but still no signs yet. As mentioned, lows IMO are not in but yesterday's bullish close also points to a possible new high needs for a reversal.
But if I would "insist" on my short bias, it would be on a break of 14760 and retest and rejection for a move lower.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 01/11/2023In the higher time frame, we are working on a wave ((2)) correction down. The primary scenario is now suggesting that wave ((2)) is unfolding as an ABC. The five waves down from the ATH might also indicate a bearish expanded flat scenario. In the lower time frame, the final wave ((v)) of wave 5 of wave A looks incomplete. We didn't get our move down yet so the market might surprise us with an expanded flat structure.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 31/10/2023In the higher time frame, we are working on a wave ((2)) correction down. The primary scenario is now suggesting that wave ((2)) is unfolding as an ABC. The five waves down from the ATH might also indicate a bearish expanded flat scenario. In the lower time frame, the final wave ((v)) of wave 5 of wave A looks incomplete. We didn't get our move down yet so the market might surprise us with an expanded flat structure.
Bigger FlatGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
#DAX - 30 October 202314620 triple support zone worked fine, as market based there and gapped up this morning, probably due to news on the end of the UAW strike for US.
Nonetheless, weekly and monthly candles look bearish, thus IMO market needs to find a base before a good up move. One such possible move might be, market sell off first later, and rebounded sharply; if so, that could signify a near term low. Conversely, if market continue its move up, I will be more inclined to look for weakness for a short (given trend is still down) especially during US session.
Looking for a short if 14720-50 for a move down to 14600 if it is traded first, or a long from 14480 to 14760 on a possible near term low.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 30/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)In the higher time frame, we are working on a wave ((2)) correction down. The primary scenario is now suggesting that wave ((2)) is unfolding as an ABC. The five waves down from the ATH might also indicate a bearish expanded flat scenario. In the lower time frame, the final wave ((v)) of wave 5 of wave A looks incomplete.
27102023 - #DAXDAX is somewhat strong yesterday (less bullish) as it ranged while US indices did make a new low before pulling back. I gave a short off 14830 or so and a long from 14620 but both did not trade.
Price opened today and is attacking the top of the BZ. If price can keep in range within the PZ, would like to see a possible sell down to new lows, test of 14620, find support and possibly go up to target 14830.
Despite the down in indices yesterday, bond yields closed weakly down thus that could be a hint of strength for today.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 27/10/2023In the higher time frame, we have completed a WXY correction but as forecasted this was not yet the wave (2) low. The lower time frame was showing corrective price action indicating more wave (2) downside. Several bearish scenarios can be considered because we took out the 04/10/2023 low.
DAX: Back and forth Todays intraday session shows how important Bouhmidi-Bands can be for day trader and specially options traders. We started with a break of 1st STD lower Bouhmidi-Band after that we saw a typical reversal back into the bandwidth. After us opening we see a typical volalitiy swift and impulse that put pressure on DAX and pushed back below lower Bouhmidi-Band. Still watch out coming days today 2nd STD lower Bouhmidi-Band at 14598 - This could be the next short target. By looking on volume profile we see that around 14448 we see next bigger support.