Final Trade...29th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The last trading days of the year are upon us and the state of the equity market are very different to preceding years. It's time to waive goodbye and say good-riddance. Let's cheer for a sea change in the New Year.
➤ I made one last Trade to see out the year. Although the S&P500 broke below the support level it has not broken below the recent low of the last week. There's a good probability of a bounce here.
➤ The European indices are sitting just above their respective 50-day moving averages. They too may bounce.
➤ I currently hold a +68% long exposure. My US positions were cut today. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Back in the action.
D-DAX
Low Low Low Low...28th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
"Shawty had them apple bottom jeans (jeans)
Boots with the fur (with the fur)
The whole club was lookin' at her
She hit the floor (she hit the floor)
Next thing you know
Shawty got low, low, low, low, low, low, low, low"
➤ That's the lyric from the song by Flo Rida. I had to look up the meaning of "Shawty". It is usually a reference to a young and attractive woman. Sexist or not this term nicely describes what's happening with the NASDAQ and the sexier (ahem...speculative) tech names. It looks like it wants to finish the year low low low low.
➤ The whole club (market) was indeed lookin' at her. All imagining the boundless future you could have together...except like many, we were late to the party and the music was about to stop. She's been dancing on the floor this whole time. Next thing you know, she literally did hit the floor in the most unflattering way along with all our dreams.
➤ OK, that's a bit over dramatic but you get the point. As usual, the masses piled on late to an overinflated market and that meant the party was about to end.
➤ With today's price action, once again we had a false dawn. Pre-market was firmly positive only to see it whither away by US market open. NASDAQ leading the indices lower. It's not pretty and getting tiresome.
➤ I currently hold 0% exposure. My US positions were cut today. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Back on the sidelines.
Same Same, 27th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Thing's pretty much look the same as expectations prior to the Christmas Holidays. I'm expecting equity prices to bounce higher. The extent of which will tell us if the Bulls can regain a foothold or the Bears once again take control.
➤ Price again bounced off the Support level at 379/380 on the SPY. Pre- US Market Trade in Asia is firmly positive. Pre-hours have been wildly unpredictable of actual direction during US Trading hours.
➤ I currently hold +34% long exposure. My European positions were cut but I may re-enter depending on today's action. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Watch for the Bounce (if any).
DAX dips continue to attract buyers.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 13909 (stop at 13829)
Levels below 13850 continue to attract buyers.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
50 1 day EMA is at 13900.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 14109 and 14149
Resistance: 14000 / 14100 / 14160
Support: 13950 / 13900 / 13850
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Cheerless, 23rd December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equity prices made no further headway. Instead, a large Bearish day threatened to add to a Cheerless Christmas. Price managed to recover some losses by end of trading day leaving things in the lurch.
➤ NASDAQ is performing miserably. It's almost back to the lows of the year. One shouldn't be surprised it is lagging so badly. Used to being valued with a zero % interest/discount rate the exact opposite narrative of higher borrowing costs for longer is now firmly entrenched.
➤ I currently hold +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Belated Christmas Rally anyone?
BASF: Big Time Move!With the last couple of impulses, we can now assume that the following movements will bring the course above the 57.06€-mark. Afterwards, we expect the price to produce more significant downward trends. Falling below 41€, however, would mean that the alternatice scenario, currently equipped with a 40% chance, will be activated, pulling us directly down towards new lows.
DAX Can it avoid the drop on this 4H Death Cross?The German stock index (DAX) just hit the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and it getting rejected. This pull-back has high probabilities of turning into a sustainable sell sequence to a Lower Low considering that just two days ago a Death Cross was formed on the 4H time-frame, which is when the 4H MA50 crosses below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
In 2022 every 4H Death Cross failed on or below the 4H MA50 and made a Lower Low with an average -5% fall. A repeat of that would pull DAX down to 13500.
In order to avoid the consequences of the Death Cross, the price needs to close above the 4H MA200, in which case we will target the bottom of the 14570 - 14680 Resistance Zone.
Notice the Lower Highs pattern on the RSI how consistent it is as a bearish signal. We just formed a Lower High.
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Inspired, 22nd December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ If yesterday's bounce was uninspiring, the Bulls were clearly inspired today. It's almost Christmas Cheer time after all. The VIX has collapsed back to the pink highlighted zone in the chart. Let's see if the Bulls can break below. It's been bound by this zone since the start of the year!
➤ I'm not looking for a big aggressive bounce. Although that would be a nice surprise. There has been a change of momentum in the rally since the Oct bottom. 390/3900 resistance looms large. The European indices are acting relatively stronger bouncing off the 50-day moving average.
➤ I currently hold +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Back in the action. Rally time?
Dax - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In the Short TermH4 - Price respected a key resistance zone and bounced lower.
Bearish divergence.
Lower lows.
H1 - Bearish trend pattern.
Currently it looks like a correction is happening.
Until the two strong resistance zones hold my short term view remains bearish here.
Uninspiring, 21st December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ We saw the smallest of bounces in the S&P500. It was uninspiring. Still, an upward move has to start from somewhere. Today may be the day to risk some capital.
➤ Uninspiring too is the Poll I took about people's opinions on which group of market participants might do well next year. 45% voted for "Everyone is a Loser". The contrarian in me would suggest that gives hope for a decent positive performance for equity markets in 2023.
➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines for an imminent trading signal.
DAX in oversold bounce from key levelGlobal stocks have bounced sharply off their overnight lows. But the lack of any significant bullish catalysts makes me wonder whether the recovery will hold. For now, the major indices are displaying hammer candles or similar bullish-looking patterns on their daily charts. Let's see if the second half of the day will encourage some profit-taking and a return to the bearish trend, or whether the recovery will hold into the close.
Sentiment has remained broadly bearish ever since those big central bank meetings last week. In particular, the sell-off started noticeably when the European Central Bank warned of more rate increases at the pace of 50 basis points, adding to a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve that had met the day before.
While one can argue that the markets have now digested those hawkish central bank meetings, inflation remains uncomfortably high in Europe for investors to turn decidedly bullish.
European (and global) markets face a bumpy road ahead as high inflation continues to hurt consumer pockets and, in turn, company top and bottom lines.
Among the more interesting European indices is the DAX.
We last looked at the German DAX on December 15 when it had just broken some key support levels after creating a false break reversal. We mentioned then that the index was likely heading towards 13700. As it turned out, not only did it reach that level, but it has bounced strongly from around that area.
At the time of writing, the DAX had rebounded back to the previous support/resistance area around the 13900-14000 range. If the bears want to maintain some control they will have to defend their ground here, otherwise we could see the onset of a bigger recovery towards the base of the break down.
But given the overall downward price action in recent days, and a weak investor sentiment, we would proceed with extra care on the long/bullish side from here. The risks are still skewed to the downside. This could just turn out to be an oversold bounce at support.
By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
Where are the Bulls? 20th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities continued their free-fall. It has now given back 50% of the gains as measured from the Oct bottom to Dec top. Price has reached a support zone. This is an ideal area for prices to rebound higher.
➤ Can you believe it? There are only 8 trading days left in the year. It's been such a tumultuous year that I can't even recall all the ups and downs. As a Trader, I can normally replay all my trades in my mind. With the roller coaster nature of the price movements, those trades have all been mashed up. That being said, I can't wait to see what surprises the market will throw at us next year.
➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines for an imminent trading signal.
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3%, DOWN from 3.17% from last week
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 51th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 1.87% movement
Bearish: 2.43% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 14375
BOT: 13493
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 14681
65% probability we are going to touch previous low 13812
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 66% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates 0% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
DAX to extend it's losses?GER40 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 13838 (stop at 13931)
Our short term bias remains negative.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
We look for losses to be extended today.
50 1day EMA is at 13900.
A break of the recent low at 13839 should result in a further move lower.
Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
Our profit targets will be 13609 and 13559
Resistance: 13950 / 14040 / 14100
Support: 13900 / 13810 / 13700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
1st Leg Down, 19th December 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ A Change of Character "CHoCH" has occured in S&P500 uptrend since the Oct bottom. The drop since 13th Dec looks to be the largest in size. This changes the momentum of the Bulls. Either Bulls will take pause with some sideways movement prior to igniting another run higher or the Bears will now come out to play. I favour the Bearish scenario right now.
➤ Price has closed the 10th Nov price gap. There is an opportunity for price to rebound higher to relieve the recent selling. The resistance at 390/3900 would be an ideal stopping area for the next leg down if the Bearish scenario plays out.
➤ I currently hold zero exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Waiting on the sidelines for an imminent trading signal.
PUMA DOWN? (delisted from main index DAX / DEU40 today)The stock was delisted from the main german stock index DAX (DEU40 / GER40), taking effect on Dec 19, 2022.
I will sell the stock if the candle CLOSES below the down trend line on daily basis, using a (european) knock out certificate. It's a kind of short selling in the US.
On Friday 16, the volume got extremely high which let me think of an exhaustion of the bulls.
THIS IS NOT A TRADING ADVISE! DON'T TRADE IT. IT'S JUST AN IDEA WHAT COULD HAPPEN. ALWAYS MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS! YOU ARE SOLELY RESPONSABLE FOR YOUR DECISIONS.
DAX Can dip even lower with the RSI being the keyThe German stock index (DAX) has had a strongly bearish week as it got rejected just below the 14700 June 06 High, inside the greater Resistance Zone that is holding since March 29. As we mentioned last week, this is a much needed technical pull-back following the +24.50% rise since the October 03 Low. The 1D RSI got vastly overbought above 80.000 and it is only natural for the market to seek to normalize these levels.
The 1D RSI is now almost at 40.000 but based on the Support Zone (green) that has been holding for over a year, it can dip to 30.000 if not lower before DAX turns into a buy opportunity again long-term. This will most likely be below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being the 1st Support and the Higher Lows trend-line the 2nd.
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DAX40 - Previous support at 14200 now becomes resistanceDAX40 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 14214 (stop at 14291)
Short term bias has turned negative. Previous support at 14200 now becomes resistance. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 14031 and 14001
Resistance: 14040 / 14100 / 14200
Support: 13956 / 13900 / 13800
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