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DAX to find buyers at market?GER40 - 24h expiry A Morning Doji Star formation has been posted at the low. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. The primary trend remains bullish. Daily signals are bullish. Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 18415. We look to buy dips. We look to Buy at 18415 (stop at 18315) Our profit targets will be 18665 and 18725 Resistance: 18509 / 18600 / 18700 Support: 18430 / 18350 / 18220 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
2024-07-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes moved mostly sideways and that’s good for the bears. Even decent or in line earnings could not take this rally further, instead we sold off into the close and broke the minor bull trend lines. For tomorrow I expect more downside price action to test the lows. Commodities - Gold moved sideways inside the same range since Friday after the sell off. Market is trying to bottom but I don’t think bears are done. Wait for the next big breakout. Oil - Watching Oil on lower tf is atrocious and be smarter than me. Clear down trend. Lower lows and lower highs. Got 2 decent bear channels downwards and right now the 1h 20ema is decent to short against. Any pullback should now stay below 80. Bitcoin - First decent selling on the daily since last Wednesday. Bull trend line is broken but it was way too steep anyway. Bears need prices below 65000 to have a chance for more downside. If bulls buy the dip again, probably moon again to 700000+. dax futures comment: 18600 would need a huge reversal day tomorrow and get below 18400 for a chance of more downside over the next days. Bulls made it clear that this is the big triangle playing out first and not a new bear trend. My bearish thesis still holds as long as we stay below 18900. Just means we probably go sideways for longer. I expect tomorrow will be a big red bar on the daily chart. Close below 18450 would be good. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18300 - 18900 bull case: Follow through buying by the bulls and they continued to stay above the 1h 20ema. Minor bull trend line also holding, so no reason to stop buying every dip. They now had 2 pushed up and a third one could get us to the big bear trend line from the ath. That’s the target for the bulls for tomorrow. Invalidation is below 18560. bear case: Bears need stronger consecutive bear bars below the 1h ema, for lower prices. Right now the best they can hope for is to stop the advance and maybe stay between 18600 - 18700. If they would be manage to generate strong selling below 18600, we can talk bear again. Bad stuff to trade currently. Trending trading range upwards. Invalidation is above 18900. short term: Yesterday I was neutral and will stay that way. Can see it go both ways again. Minor bull trend line needs to break and market has to trade strongly below 1h 20ema for this to turn bearish. Above 18700, odds favor bulls for 18770 or higher again. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged trade of the day: Tough. Any buy around 1h 20ema was good. Bulls made a 100+ ripper but bears quickly sold it, so you had to take profits and keep tighter stops.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes pulled back as expected and laid out in my weekly post yesterday. Although a bit stronger and faster than I expected. Dax for example already reached it’s 50% pullback to the tick and bears want this to be the high and reverse hard from here. Commodities - Gold is also trying to find a bottom after the big rejection. Doji on the day so no deeper analysis needed. Set alarms when market breaks above or below today’s range. Oil bears tried the follow through selling but bulls actually closed the day above the minor bear trend line support again. So bears are not as strong as they could be. Still lower lows and lower highs. Bitcoin - BTFD in full force, Doji on the daily. No deeper analysis, bulls are in control, please read my weekly post. dax futures comment: 18600 is my line in the sand for bears. If they keep it below, odds are good, that we are in a bigger down move. If bulls continue up, it’s a triangle on the daily chart and we can expect more sideways movement. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18300 - 18700 bull case: Good bounce by the bulls today and they closed at the highs. They expect follow through buying tomorrow and if they can a 1h close above 18600, many bears will give up on a new bear trend and stronger selling. Market did not have a candle close below the 15m 20ema today. Find those ema early in the day and grind them up or down. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears stopped the market at the absolute last point to keep the sell off thesis alive. 50% pb was hit to the tick. They need a strong overnight reversal or early in EU session. So probably more upside above 18620 and down again below 18500. Invalidation is above 18620ish. short term: Full bear mode to hell. Shorter shorty term is neutral as stated above. Bullish scalping above 18620 and full bear below 18500 again. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged trade of the day: Long bar 32. Strong breakout of prev range and market never looked back.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
#202430 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are at the exact same spot as last Sunday but just a tat higher. They want a big reversal again at multiple resistance above 18800. They also see all the rejections from the past months at this level and shorting here has been very profitable. They also know it’s a bad buy for the bulls up here. Odds clearly favor them to trade back to at least 18600 but we will probably see 18500 early next week. comment: Bears took complete control of the market after the lower high 18927 which formed a perfect head & shoulders pattern. The Measured move down is around 17000 and I expect that price to be hit in 2024. Last bull trend line before the big one from 2020 & 2022 and I expect it to be broken over the next 1-3 weeks. The upcoming pullback is the most important part now because the height will determine the strength of the next bear leg and if this a new bear trend or not. If bulls get above18600 again, there is a decent chance we are still inside a big trading range. If bears keep it below the daily 20ema, we will most likely form a proper channel we can grind down over the next months. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 18000 / 18900 bull case: Bulls and bears alike knew the recent high at 18900 was a bad buy and they tried to save their bull case on Tuesday but once Wednesday came around and 18700ish was resistance the third time, they gave and we only produced lower highs since. Best bulls can hope for now is to keep it above 18000 and bounce at the weekly 20ema which is exactly right under Friday’s close and that the bull trend line from April will hold. Market expects a pullback and bulls want it to go above 18600, which increases the odds of this being a continuation of the triangle, rather than a new bear trend. Invalidation is below 18147. bear case: Bears are in full control and want a lower low below 18148 to break the bull trend line. The recent selling was strong enough for a second leg but I think a pullback is expected after Opex. Also very strong selling on much greater volume. Any pullback should stay below 18600. Invalidation is above 18650/18700, but that is pure guesswork. Need to see a bounce first. In general, if a pullback goes beyond the 50% mark, it’s hard to argue for a strong bear trend. outlook last week: short term: Bearish at least to 18500. It’s 50/50 if bulls can do a higher high or will only print lower highs from here. Looking for early weakness and then at 18500 absolutely neutral and let the market decide where it wants to go next. Any bad Dax earnings next week will probably flush it below 18500 again. → Last Sunday we traded 18857 and now we are at 18298. High of the week was 18889 and the low was 18274. Gave you 18500 and you got 18274. That’s 585 points from last Friday’s close. Hope you made some. short term: Full bear mode. Will try to catch the bounces as good as one can but the big money will be made to the downside over the next months. Short term we will see a bounce that should stay below 18500/18600 and from there I expect another big leg down to 17800. medium-long term: Time to update this section. I called for 17000 for couple of months now and I said, any short around or above 19000 is amazing. The highs held and now we will see how low we can get in 2024. 17100 is still my first bigger target and should be reached in 2024. At this point it does not make sense to call lower targets. current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: Will post also some profit taking and adding to the position again. On Monday I plan to look for strength and take about half off and to add again around 18500 or higher. Chart update: Be reminded, that I switched from dax cfd to dax futures. Removed all the bullish lines except the two main trend lines. On from April and the one from 2020. Put text on the shs pattern and added a fat bear trend line from ath to the recent lower high because that’s the triangle we are currently in and about to find out of the bottom will hold.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
DAX (GER40) Is Still BrearishDax has taken a little different route. It has been consolidating but last week, it created a massive bearish engulfing candle. Which can push the price to the FCP zones below. If the first one fails we have an M pattern completion at the second FCP zone. Beware of a gap around 17200 level. If you found this interesting please consider supporting this analysis by liking, commenting, and sharing with friends, colleagues, traders, and trading communities. Thanks👍🙂 Before:
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by vikinsa
DAX H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementDAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 18,593.36 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 18,660.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 18,352.60 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
2024-07-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes all read except DJI. Given the overbought conditions especially for the russel, tis was expected. Tech selling continued and is accelerating. For Nvidia all but 1 remaining bull trend line are broken and if bears can close the gap down to 114, they can probably print 100 over the next weeks. My measured move target 96 is from 2024-07-06. Selling today was strong enough to expect more tomorrow, especially going into the weekend. Commodities - Gold printed a rather neutral doji on the daily chart after a new ath 2488. Will we sell off from here or can they go 2500? I don’t know. 2500 is an obvious magnet but Opex is around the corner and maybe too many yolo’d into 2500 calls. Oil got the expected bounce to 83, which I have been writing about since Sunday. Buying was strong enough for follow through tomorrow but bears need to keep it below 84 or this is not a pullback anymore. Bitcoin - Market has still not touched the 4h 20ema since Saturday. Very strong buying by the bulls but it gets weaker. I don’t know if they can break out above again without a deeper pullback first. It’s also very bullish, that nasdaq sells off while btc stays above 62000. Should only look for longs as long as market stays above the 4h ema. dax comment: Will change from dax cfd from EasyMarkets to dax futures from now on. Market opened below y close and quickly filled the gap before bears took over and grinded it down. 18500 was bought as expected but the two legs up were so strong, that bears did not try to force another test of 18500 and market went mostly sideways, which is a neutral signal going into tomorrow. The bear channel is holding properly but bears would need a weekly close below 18500 for more selling next week. Market has formed a triangle with the bull trend line and the most recent bear channel resistance line and market will break out tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle) key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 - If 18500 is broken for good, next support is 18360 bull case: Bulls bought where they had to and stopped a bigger sell off. They need to break the bear channel for another test of 18900 or higher. They bounced at the daily 20ema yesterday and today they closed above it again, which means that bulls are technically still in control but if they do not reverse it tomorrow, it’s night night. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears now had 3 decent legs down to 18500 and market then oscillated around the 50% pullback from the recent bull trend, which is 18570. As long as the bears keep it mostly below the 1h 20ema and inside the bear channel, they are good and market will continue down. Their target is a weekly close below 18500, which would make most bulls cover and it would be a strong sell signal going into next week. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Neutral between 18500 - 18650. Bearish below and bullish only on a strong break above the bear channel. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged trade of the day: Longs from the strong open were decent but you had to think fast. After the gap close market quickly reversed and since it reversed right at the 1h 20ema, that was your hint to look for shorts next time market gets near it.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears got follow through down to 18600 where Bulls were eager to buy and not wait for the market to hit the daily 20ema or the bull trend line. That’s strength by the bulls. My target was 18570 and we got 18590, that’s decent enough. The buying in the US session was still surprising to me but then I guess it’s up again. Last stand for the bears is 18740ish where the weekly 50% pullback is but I doubt it can hold. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle) key levels: small range 18600 / 18900 bull case: Bulls bought the double bottom 18600 above the bull channel support line and now they want back up above 18800 and print a new ath. The broad bull channel leads exactly to the ath and leg1 and leg2 were 630 and 550 points big. If we get 500 points up, that would lead us to 19100. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears failed at 18600 and now odds favor the bulls to get back above 18800 again. Can the 50% pb at 18740 or the broken triangle bear trend line act as resistance? I highly doubt that. Got nothing for the bears here. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Bullish if we stay above 18600 for at least 18800 but probably higher. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged trade of the day: Again buying a double bottom at big support on the 1h tf. Bar 8 + 14. Both had bigger tails below and market found not enough sellers below 18600. Had to get long latest bar 17. Buying bar 16 was tough because you would have bought right under the 1h 20ema and previous resistance. Any long below 18600 was king.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong day by the bears which was just a healthy pullback on a higher time frame. For bears to do some actual damage they need to print strongly below 18670 again. A measured move down would lead to 18570ish. Since bulls and bears have valid arguments here, I expect more sideways movement until we get another breakout above or below. No opinion on who wins it. Bullish above 18800, bearish below 18670. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle) key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 bull case: Bulls see today as a pullback to the 4h 20ema and want to print a new ath while they have the momentum and trading above the higher tf ema. They also closed the market above the breakout price 18722, which confirms the bullishness, if we rally from here again. Invalidation is below 18670. bear case: In my weekly post I wrote that buying above 18800 is bad not matter how you look at it and bulls got another big rejection. The market now has formed a broad bull channel where the support line is around 18530, so another 170 points lower and coincidentally it’s also where the daily 20ema is. Enough reasons to have a stronger argument for another leg down by the bears. Invalidation is above 18800. short term: Bearish until we hit the daily ema or at least 18570. Invalid above 18800 or strong close above the 1h 20ema. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. trade of the day: buying the double bottom with y close
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX Sell opportunity at the top of this pattern.DAX (FDAX1!) has been following our May 17 (see chart below) projected path very closely and as mentioned, it has been a repeat of the May - July 2023 Megaphone consolidation so far: The price is back above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and we have adjusted the Megaphone to the wider price-action that was given, in contrast to the 2023 one. As a result, we are expecting the index to get rejected around the top of the Megaphone and the long-term Channel Up. That will be our next short-term sell opportunity, targeting 18000 (the June 14 Low), which by the time of the rejection should be very close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the untested long-term Support level since November 15 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by TradingShot
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level. comment: Big down, bigger up. Again. High was high enough to qualify as another double top but the high also undershot the bull wedge resistance line. Bulls have not been able to print more then 3 consecutive bull bars since May. Why would they now? Bulls bought dips and I doubt they want to buy above 18800 all of a sudden. Odds favor the bears to trade to the bull channel support around 18500 over the next 1-2 days. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 bull case: Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema. Above is from last Sunday and still valid. As long as bulls trade above the daily 20ema and inside the bull channel/exp triangle/wedge (yes all apply), it’s bullish. Problem with the bull case is, do you really want to buy above 18800? Market knows only rejections above this price so no matter how you put it, new longs here are bad. Can you buy intraday dips at support for scalps? Absolutely. Invalidation is below 18360. bear case: Bears are at the exact same spot as last Sunday but just a tat higher. They want a big reversal again at multiple resistance above 18800. They also see all the rejections from the past months at this level and shorting here has been very profitable. They also know it’s a bad buy for the bulls up here. Odds clearly favor them to trade back to at least 18600 but we will probably see 18500 early next week. Invalidation is above 18900. Market was rejected twice here on Friday and reversed. Bears do not want to see the market testing that price again or they will probably give up. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower. → Last Sunday we traded 18666 and now we are at 18857. High of the week was 18927 and the low was 18362. Outlook was ok. I said we test back down and we did even 100 points lower than I thought. Also said bulls were in control above all ema. I absolutely did not think bulls can do 18900+ again but here we are. short term: Bearish at least to 18500. It’s 50/50 if bulls can do a higher high or will only print lower highs from here so I’m not into guessing. Looking for early weakness and then at 18500 absolutely neutral and let the market decide where it wants to go next. Any bad Dax earnings next week will probably flush it below 18500 again. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Chart update: Nope.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
DAX H4 | Approaching multi-swing-high resistanceDAX (GER30) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 18,636.87 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 18,800.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 18,440.29 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
2024-07-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - #daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes just strongly green. No deeper analysis needed. Support held everywhere and markets just melted again. My top call was as moronic as can be. Markets humble you quickly. Obviously I was not humbled enough so far. Does not change my mind about this peak bubble behavior at the end of this trend and we correct/crash into year end. Commodities - Gold inside a triangle and it’s important for bears to stay below 2390 or very likely breakout above again, shorts preferred for trade back to below 2375. Oil got the expected bounce a bit later but still there. My target was 83/84 and high was 82.65. I expect some more tries by the bulls but should stay below 84 before more down. Bitcoin - Bulls got higher than expected but bears did a nice reversal a bit below the daily ema. Market behaves nicely. Good chance we go down to the lows from here at 57200. dax comment: Strong day by the bulls in a very tight channel. Bulls need to get above 18650 again to test 18800. Bears want a deep pullback like on Monday. It’s a big triangle with one giant bear trend line and multiple bull trend lines below. Market will have a couple more days inside the range before a big breakout. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema so excuse my short analysis. Market is in balance inside given range. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18380 - 18800 bull case: Perfect double bottom 18370 for the bulls and a strong move for 250+ points. Bulls expect follow through tomorrow and want to reach 18800 again. Invalidation is below 18470. bear case: Bears argue for a retest 18600 but they would need a very strong reversal around 18600 and that is not probable. If bulls continue to buy strongly, bears will probably step aside until 18760 and try shorting higher again. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500 trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-07-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes mostly had big ups and big downs today. DJI and Russel are pretty wild. Dax puked hard, which I probably announced too many times by now but yeah. 18000 soon. Nasdaq: Refuses to go down. Every 1h bear bar has a big tail below, means bulls are in max euphoria and buying every dip, every tick. Bottom of the bull channel had 3 3 touches and we can probably expect another test of the highs tomorrow. Can be higher, lower or an exact double top, no never now in advance and it does not matter because you trade them the same. Trading range 20570 - 20770. Peak bubble. Commodities - Gold support at 2355 held again but lower highs. Give it 1-2 more days until the next breakout and my money is on the bears. Will see 2300 again soon. Oil mostly sideways today, big support above 81 but still lower lows and lower highs. I expect a dead cat bounce as laid out in my weekly update. Will print below 80 this or next week. Bitcoin - W4 going sideways with big swings. Decent two legged pullback on the daily chart and could break down again soon but since market went sideways for one week during W2, we can expect a bit more sideways. Small swing short currently after taking big profits from the previous down to 54000. 57855 entry, sl 58800. dax comment: current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18580 - 18800 bull case: Bulls tried to print above 18650 4 times on Monday and today and since market found not enough buyers, we tested lower. Bulls gave up below 18500 once market went there the third time today. Bulls are still in a higher low on the daily chart but this bear bar today was the final nail imo. Invalidation is below 18180. bear case: Bears in full control again. Below all ema and today they broke below the bear channel and markt held there. Very strong selling and we can expect more. Bears want to test the small bull trend line around 18300. If they break even that, it’s the next trend line around 18200. I do not expect bears to break below that and the triangle will probably play out more days before a big breakout to the downside. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500 trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-07-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax/oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Trading range price action. Elevator up and stairs down today. Helps no one and we have to wait for tomorrow for a clear direction. Market is oscillating around the 1h and the daily 20ema. Fade the extremes until clear breakout. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18580 - 18800 bull case: Bulls tried again at 18800 and only got a lower high below it. They bought 18600 and until that range breaks, it’s neutral. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Either bears print below 18600 or step aside for another lower high below 18700. Until then, bulls will continue to btfd. Invalidation is above 18830. short term: Bullish around 18600 for trade back to at least 18680. Stop has to be 18570 for any long. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. trade of the day: Strong small pullback bull trend since EU open and market could not touch the 2m 20ema for 130 points. Market also reversed just as hard but a bit slower couple of minutes after the high. Had to be quick to exit longs once bar 36 traded below 35 without any pullback. Bulls quickly gave up above 18780.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Friday I wrote on twitter that the highs are probably in and I will stand by that. Can I be wrong by another 100 points in the sp500? Sure but I doubt it. The patterns to sell down are aligning on the monthly, weekly and daily tf. The buying was more than climactic and we can see enough indicators pointing down or are already bad. Big institutions won’t jeopardize their whole trading year with overstaying in this bubble. The past 3 trading days formed a perfect bull trap and if bears can start the reverse early next week, we will see some acceleration downwards. As always, don’t blindly long/short anything. Wait for confirmation before you enter a trade. dax: Big up, big down, bigger up. Interesting week but again, nasty reversal bar on Friday. I doubt bulls will buy this up again. The right shoulder here looks decent enough on the daily chart and market could drop 600 points from here. Confirmation for the bears is a print below 18500. If bulls are strong, they stay inside the wedge and trade back above 18800. 55/45 for the bears imo. Quote from last week: comment: Market was completely neutral past week. Let’s look at the weekly chart and what it tells us. 5 Week selloff and now 2 bull weeks and past week was as neutral as it gets. Tells us that the market is in balance and does not know where it will go next. We can draw multiple bad bear trend lines and all are valid until broken. Does not help with trading at this price. Since we have a decent bull support line from the April and June low, we know that the market is in a triangle and the middle is most likely around 18300. As long as market is coming back to that price, you buy low and sell high. Since market is also staying above the weekly 20ema, bears are not favored to suddenly break below it. It’s also trading below the daily 20ema and did not have a daily close above it for 12 trading days. It’s a trading range near the ath, where the market is compressing and will soon see a breakout. comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 18200 / 18800 bull case: Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema. Invalidation is below 18540. bear case: Only hope for bears was the decent sell off on Friday for a quick -249 points in 1h which denied the market a daily close above 18700 for 29 trading days. Left shoulder from March/April high was 18836 and Friday’s high was 18822. Close is always close enough. They also see the two bull wedges we have formed and want a break to the downside. Their first target is a retest of Friday’s low 18575 which is almost the open of last week to the tick. If they manage to break below 18540, their next target is the daily 20ema at 18470 and that’s also close to the 50% pb for this whole trading range. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18800. outlook last week: short term: Can’t be anything but neutral again. Bears managed to stay below the daily 20ema but bulls bought the weekly 20ema. Trading range price action. Will get a breakout soon. → Last Sunday we traded 18417 and now we are at 18666. High of the week was 18822 and the low was 18190. Outlook was ok. Market closed 40ish points above the open of the week and we made new lows and new highs. Trading range price action, which is why I was and am neutral for this market. short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: Nothing Chart update: Bear wave and trend line is gone and added bull wedges.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Uneventful trading was expect, since US holidays mostly go sideways in a tight trading range. Market had a good spike at the open which had to be faded and that was the trade of the day. Other than that, market is oscillating around 18600, which is 25 points above the open of the week/month. It’s do or die for both sides here. If bulls can break above 18630, 18900 comes in play. If bears win it, we could have a nasty reversal and will be on our way to 18000 again. I still think the bears trend line could be in play, if bears trade below it early tomorrow. If not, successful breakout above and odds will favor the bulls. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 18200 - 18600 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. —unchanged Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout. Update: Since text above is still valid, I did not change it. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. —unchanged medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just don’t trade on these days unless you are 9/10 days in tight trading ranges profitable. If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow. Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-07-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Globex was the low of the day and bulls just bought relentlessly since the EU open. 3 doji bear bars on the 1h chart today will make follow through likely but we are again at the bear trend line in this big triangle and that line held 4 times now. Betting on a breakout is a losing strategy. Wait for it to happen and follow the market. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 18200 - 18600 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long anywhere. Watch higher time frames because they left no doubt today. I made that mistake and could not get myself into longs. Bad trading on my end.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds