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Germany's DAX Threatening Big Break Below Trend SupportGermany's DAX index has had a solid 2024 so far, but the shine may be coming off the bullish technicals as we head into the second half of the year. After hitting a record high near 19K in May, the index has seen its gains stall out. Prices retreated to bullish trend line support in mid-June, and with bulls failing to drive a convincing bounce off that level, the DAX is now at risk of a bearish breakdown below that level of dynamic support. A breakdown could target the March/April closing lows in the 17.7K zone next.
FOREXCOM:GER40
by FOREXcom
GER30 H4 | Potential bullish reversalGER30 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 18,050.68 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 17,900.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Take profit is at 18,370.11 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Funny thing for me is the fact that ath to June high is about 200 points, June to July high now is about 200 and low of the week was 200 points below that. Markets eh. 4h chart tells it the best I think. Market touched the big bear trend line from ath and was rejected heavily. Bulls have going for them that the higher lows getting higher and the trend lines steeper. Means we are forming multiple triangles, which confirms the obvious trading range. Breakout this week. Buckle. Up. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 - 18632 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but every high is sold big time. Only questions imo is, when will they give up? By not with every 1h bar it get’s more obvious that this bull trend is on it’s last legs and if you bought longer term above 18000, you are not happy with the bear trend line. Higher high above 18600 was unexpected somewhat but turned where it had to. Bulls need a strong daily close above 18600 to make bears nervous. I expect another try at 18600 tomorrow or Wednesday. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Bears trapped bulls buying above 18500 but the sell off afterwards was not deep enough to make a good bear case out of this. Bears need start making lower lows and closing the bull gap to 18400 with a bear bar closing on its low. Invalidation is above 18632 or a 1h close above the bear trend line. short term: Neutral but if bulls manage to get a 1h close above the bear trend line, it could go much higher much faster. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Best trade was shorting against the bear trend line 18600.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX to find support market price?DE30EUR - 24h expiry Our bespoke resistance of 18366 has been clearly broken. Previous resistance at 18325 now becomes support. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. The primary trend remains bullish. Price action continues to trade around significant highs. We look to Buy at 18325 (stop at 18215) Our profit targets will be 18565 and 18635 Resistance: 18446 / 18500 / 18600 Support: 18325 / 18200 / 18100 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Day and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: comment: Sell vacuum theory was spot on. Bears printed 2 big good looking bars right to huge support and got no follow through. Bulls used it to trade back at least to the daily ema and 2/3 of the move. Huge price level around 18400/18450 with the ema. Bulls want above to test upper expanding triangle around 18600 and bears want a bigger second leg down to 17600. Both completely valid arguments and I will wait for a clear breakout before following. comment: Market was completely neutral past week. Let’s look at the weekly chart and what it tells us. 5 Week selloff and now 2 bull weeks and past week was as neutral as it gets. Tells us that the market is in balance and does not know where it will go next. We can draw multiple bad bear trend lines and all are valid until broken. Does not help with trading at this price. Since we have a decent bull support line from the April and June low, we know that the market is in a triangle and the middle is most likely around 18300. As long as market is coming back to that price, you buy low and sell high. Since market is also staying above the weekly 20ema, bears are not favored to suddenly break below it. It’s also trading below the daily 20ema and did not have a daily close above it for 12 trading days. It’s a trading range near the ath, where the market is compressing and will soon see a breakout. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 17600 / 18500 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18500 to retest the other bear trend lines above. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Until bears can print consecutive bear bars below 18000, this market is still in BTFD mode and won’t go down further. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18550. outlook last week: “ short term: Neutral again. Need to see a clear winner here at the daily 20ema for the next direction.“ → Last Sunday we traded 18367 and now we are at 18417. High of the week was 18542 and the low was 18221 so my outlook was spot on. short term: Can’t be anything but neutral again. Bears managed to stay below the daily 20ema but bulls bought the weekly 20ema. Trading range price action. Will get a breakout soon. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: No big move caught. Will look for follow through selling on Monday and would swing a position then. Chart update: Adjusted bear wave series to match the current sideways movement.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
5
2024-06-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Bit Groundhogs Day much. Another small green day for the bulls and again, all markets stayed inside their ranges. Triangles live on. Atrocious to trade if you don’t like to scale in with wide stops. Markets are clearly in breakout mode and tomorrow could be the day imo. My base assumption for sp500 and nq is another test of the ath before a much deeper pullback. Commodities Gold and Oil had a 1% up day but are still inside their given trading ranges. Oil made a perfect retest of the tight bull channel and 82 could still be bigger resistance. Bulls need a strong break above to convince me to buy it. If you look at a 1h tf, it’s a big trading range with lot’s of bigger bars with prominent tails. Not easy to trade. Gold produced a big bounce that will probably get a second leg up. Bulls defended 2300, which was important. Daily ema is right above at 2340. If bulls trade above it, 2360 would be my next target. dax comment: Barbwire (tails above and below bars and mostly doji’s) - horrible to trade. Market still not above the daily ema and a small inside bar on the daily, compared to previous days. High chance tomorrow will see a breakout above 18500 or below 18200. Middle of this range 18381 is still the most important price on the chart currently. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 18550 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but not higher highs. Market is in breakout mode. Wait for a breakout - retest and then a good signal in the direction before you enter. Many Good signals at the extremes turn out to be traps in trading ranges. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears getting weaker because they can not make lower lows. Will found out tomorrow if they want to trap eager bulls above 18500. No deeper analysis currently. Just patience needed. Invalidation is above 18550. short term: As neutral as it gets. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Use small position size and wide stops to scale in. —unchanged.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX DE40/DE30 LONG - DAX Long - Pump for the End of the Monthly.Hi all. I longed DAX today, based on beautiful correction to 18120 area and an accumulation today on European session . Lower timeframes M1 and M5 printed a ' Perfect entry ' signal for me with change of character and break of structure . Together with the sentiment changing on American indices, I longed DAX on New York session open today around 18120 price. I am planning to hold this trade till 18570-18580 area, and leave a small runner with potential to come back to ATH area. Stop loss on chart, but you can see the levels of potential support if we enouncter any sort of strong rejection. Potential TP areas: - 18230 - 18310 - And finally 18580. Good luck and play safe!
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by AdiVV
DAX Medium-term buy opportunity.Last time we looked at DAX (FDAX1!) it gave us another successful sell signal (May 17) at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 9-month Channel Up: This time it is issuing a medium-term buy signal as after reaching the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 6-month Channel Up, while hitting and holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as Support, it is sustaining an upward consolidation. The last Higher Lows was also priced after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and supported by the 1D MA100 and the only confirmation left to form an identical pattern with that is for the 1D RSI to complete a Bullish Cross. As you can see, that has historically been a very reliable buy signal. Our Target is 19300, which is marginally lower than the previous +8.80% Bullish Leg, but almost exactly on the Internal Higher Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Pullbacks as expected. Markets are looking for the fair price and that’s why we get big down, big up. Slightly favoring the bulls to continue higher but just slightly. I wait for a breakout tomorrow. Bitcoin had a bullish day but look at the daily chart. It’s a small bull inside bar. Bulls fighting for their life’s to stay above 60000. I expect bears to try again for 60k this week. It was also a perfect retest of the broken lower bear trend line around 62000. Commodities pulled back again. Gold at the lows of this trading range and bears would need much bigger selling pressure to break it. Oil broke out of the bull channel and that is not good for the bulls. They now need to hold it above 80 or we will trade back down to 77.5ish. dax comment: Another day another doji after the US session. EU session closed 10 points below where it opened. Market also formed a perfect wedge and I expect this to break down to 18300 again. 18300 is currently my most important price for the dax and if bulls fail to defend, it’s night night for them. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls prevented a flush below 18200 today but the buying was weak at best. They need stronger bull bars and trade back above 18440. I don’t have many arguments for them tbh, because all time frames look pretty bearish or at least neutral (daily tf). Above 18450, we will see 18500+ again. Invalidation is below 18250. bear case: Bears sold off very strongly before the EU open and market struggled to get back up again. On the daily it’s a decent head & shoulders pattern, which would bring us right back to 17963 to the freaking tick. So the odds heavily favor the bears if the wedge breaks below 18350. Invalidation is above 18440. short term: Neutral between 18350-18450. Bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting bar 24 one tick below bar 23. That was a perfect retest of the bull channel we broke out of yesterday and market then sold off for 183 points.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-06-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - No good news for the stock indexes. Dax and DJI closed green but dax ended US session still below the daily ema. Dow was rejected at the 40k mark, which was to be expected. Bulls will probably try that again tomorrow. SP500 and Nasdaq pulled back some more and bears finally closed a bear bar at the lows. In the overall scheme of things it’s just a minor pullback from a climactic blow off top. I have zero confidence in the bears that they can prevent the bulls from retesting the highs soon. Commodities were also uneventful. Oil bulls still doing their thing and keeping it in the bull channel, as I foretold in my weekly post. Gold printed a bull doji which keeps the market above the small bull support line on the daily chart but below the daily ema. More sideways price action expected for Gold. Will do a Bitcoin update tomorrow morning. Want to see if they sell it again hard in the Asia session. dax comment: Bulls tried and failed at 18500 and US session closed below 18400. Not looking good for the bulls currently. Doji on the daily, so I expect more sideways price action tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls traded above 18500 and the EU session closed above it. The US session pulled it back below 18400, so it’s fair to say that we will see more choppy price action tomorrow. Bulls are still favored to retest above 18500 tomorrow, where their fate will be decided. If they fail again, we will go back to 18000 and if they break above, 18600 comes fast. The bull channel is still valid but Globex could trade sideways out of it. Invalidation is below 18300. bear case: Bears kept the market around last weeks close in the US session and they want to test back down to 18300. I have no opinion if we see 18300 or 18500 first tomorrow but I do think we will hit both. 18300 is also a 50% pullback from this recent rally. Invalidation is above 18540. short term: Neutral between 18380-18450. Bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex was bullish since bar 4 and saw an acceleration on bar 22+23. 23 was your entry bar for longs. If you weren’t, bar 29 with the open was strong enough so buy one tick on the follow through bar 30. Bar 67 was a huge bear surprise. Was 66 a reasonable short entry? You can but you would have shorted in a bull trend right at the 1h 20ema. You can take it since bar 66 was a decent signal bar but certainly not a trade of the day.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls see it as a small pullback and a sell vacuum on Friday to the big round support 18000. They want to create the same reversal as they did on 2024-04-19 with a 2% up day. The pullback in late March and April was 13 days long while we are in a 21 day long pullback. Bulls also argue that this is the first touch of the weekly 20ema since 2023-11 when we sliced through and have not touched it once since. Trends tend to test the extreme after the trend line is broken. I have absolutely no confidence in the bears to crash from here on, without at least a retest of the bull trend line at around 18300. If bears manage to close the gap to 17100, I am obviously wrong. comment: Sell vacuum theory was spot on. Bears printed 2 big good looking bars right to huge support and got no follow through. Bulls used it to trade back at least to the daily ema and 2/3 of the move. Huge price level around 18400/18450 with the ema. Bulls want above to test upper expanding triangle around 18600 and bears want a bigger second leg down to 17600. Both completely valid arguments and I will wait for a clear breakout before following. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 17600 / 18500 bull case: Bulls already had 2 pushes up in this pullback and they want a third one to around 18600. Their first target is a 1h close above the daily ema 18430. Invalidation is below 18260. bear case: I do think bears last chance here at the daily ema or they risk another bull leg to 18600. I think the odds are 50/50 for either side on Monday/Tuesday. Bears see this as a higher pullback in the new steeper bear trend that started 2023-06-13 with the two big bear bars. If they fail, market will spend more time in the range 18000-18600. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18460. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral. Please read on so you know why and how I will trade it. So bears are in control. Below all ema and really big red bars and all red bars for 5 weeks. I’m still not shorting right at 18000. That’s insane. Can we go lower on momentum to 17600? Yes. Will I short it? Bet. R:R here is on the bull side if they build buying pressure and get follow through. Until all of that I am neutral.” → Last Sunday we traded 18016 and now we are at 18367. High of the week was 18448 so that outlook was as good as it gets. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral again. Need to see a clear winner here at the daily 20ema for the next direction. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. current swing trade: None but will look for weakness on Monday/Tuesday for another big leg down. Sp500 and Nasdaq have to also be weak for that. Chart update: No bigger updates on my chart. Green two legged correction (ABC) was spot on and is still valid.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
GER30 remains under pressure after sharp sell-off last weekEuropean stocks took a beating last week following the announcement of a snap election by French President Macron. The momentum remains subdued but prices are at a key support level. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) : CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) : Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
1
2024-06-18 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes had their expected trading range price action today. Mostly what happens after huge days. Markets are in balance here, which is good for the bulls. Commodities also all green today. Oil is grinding to 81/82 while Gold is moving sideways under the daily 20ema. I expect Oil to pull back soon and my preferred path for Gold is a break below the triangle and 2300 for another big leg down. dax comment: Well, what did we learn today? Not much tbh. It’s still a bear flag and bears keeping it below 18200, which is bearish. My target was at least 18300 for the bulls. Daily ema is at 18450 and that’s also where the bull trend line is for a retest of the breakout. All good targets above but for now, bears are in full control. Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. You won’t find many new info’s below compared to yesterday. current market cycle: probably bear trend if the pullback stays under 18300/18360 key levels: 18000 - 18400 bull case: Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. Not much more magic to it. If we trade below 18080, we test 18000 again. Invalidation is below 18080. bear case: Bears are finding acceptance below 18200, which is very bearish. They are in full control and probably letting the daily ema come closer to attract new bears for another leg below 18000. Invalidation is above 18360. short term: neutral. Market is in balance here until breakout above 18200 or below 18080 medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Yeah good question. So the open of the week was 18098 and y close was 18084. Good support area for longs. So buying the double bottom bar 33 + 49 was reasonable. Short from the open was also good because it was too strong to not get short and the upper bull channel line held.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: comment: Market in total balance inside key levels. It’s the 4th consecutive bear week but we are still above the midpoint of the first week of May where dax gained 800 points. This selling is as weak as it gets and that’s why another leg up is much more likely than an acceleration to the downside. We are oscillating around the daily 20ema at 18600 and right at the bull trend line from January. Market is in breakout mode and will have it next week. Odds favor the bulls but I wait for confirmation after US CPI and FOMC. comment: Bears finally did it. They broke to the downside when the higher probability trade was bullish. They actually broke below the expanding triangle which held for 4 weeks and sliced through the bull trend line that began 2022-10-03. For the dax which made 60.69% in that time, to just slice through that line, is something unusual to say the least. Is it now time to get uber bearish? I don’t think so. News outlets will tell you it’s because of eurozone fear and elections and blablabla. We are 5% from the ath. That’s a small pull-back to the neckline and the big 18000 support. Entering new shorts down here is as bad of a trade as you can come up with. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. key levels: small range 17600 / 18400 bull case: Bulls see it as a small pullback and a sell vacuum on Friday to the big round support 18000. They want to create the same reversal as they did on 2024-04-19 with a 2% up day. The pullback in late March and April was 13 days long while we are in a 21 day long pullback. Bulls also argue that this is the first touch of the weekly 20ema since 2023-11 when we sliced through and have not touched it once since. Trends tend to test the extreme after the trend line is broken. I have absolutely no confidence in the bears to crash from here on, without at least a retest of the bull trend line at around 18300. If bears manage to close the gap to 17100, I am obviously wrong. Invalidation is below 17550. bear case: Big bear surprise on Thursday and Friday. The bull bar on Wednesday was strong enough in an overall max bullish market to break to the upside. They managed to break below two support trend lines. Now the important questions is, was this just a sell vacuum test to find new buyers or are we actually in a decent down turn to below 17000? No one knows. We are right an my neckline 18000 and last time we got here, we reversed up for a new ath. You simply can’t get bearish at these lows when they have been big support the last time. Could you hold onto existing shorts from above 18100 and see if we sell further to retest 17600? Absolutely. If the momentum is there again next week, that’s a reasonable target to the downside. I do think if bears can not hold it below 18160, they give up for a bigger pullback to at least 18300 and there it’s do or die for the bulls again. Invalidation is a daily close above 18300. outlook last week: “Still in favor of the bulls, unless bears get a strong daily close below 18400. Retest of 19000 is expected. If we can’t get it before CPI & FOMC and CPI comes in hot, I will go big on shorts for at least 18000 over the next 1-3 weeks.” → Last Sunday we traded 18572 and now we are at 18016. Bad bullish outlook but I gave you the clear warning that if bears would get a good daily close below 18400, I’d go big on shorts for 18000 and that’s exactly what we hit. short term: Neutral. Please read on so you know why and how I will trade it. So bears are in control. Below all ema and really big red bars and all red bars for 5 weeks. I’m still not shorting right at 18000. That’s insane. Can we go lower on momentum to 17600? Yes. Will I short it and call it in my tradingroom? Bet. R:R here is on the bull side if they build buying pressure and get follow through. Until all of that I am neutral. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. current swing trade: Caught a big swing for 300 points down to 18000 as I wrote in my last weeks outlook. Chart update: Two paths ahead, bullish one is favored when bears step aside here at 18000 and bulls build buying pressure. If green path plays out, I expect this to be the right shoulder and that would be a decent place to sell everything (yes, your dog and granny too) to short this to freaking hell.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes pulled-back as expected and closed mostly where they opened the us session. Dax showed strong weakness again with a reversal to new lows. Tomorrow another uber bullish day at least for sp500 and nasdaq is expected, since bulls want to close this week at the highs, creating another big buy signal going into next week. Nasdaq closing the week above 20000 would be something. Commodities continued with their down trends. Oil confirmed the reversal at the upper bear channel and Gold also sold off for 30 points but found support at the 2320 area again. More sideways movement expected here. dax comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Every day, same story, bulls try to reverse it and bears just relentlessly selling every rip. Makes you wonder how many bulls will continue to do, before they give up. It’s fitting, that we almost exactly closed where the big bull trend line from January and the lower expanding triangle trend line crossed. Here it’s big decision time for the next impulse. Bears are in their 4th red week and still have not dropped below the big bull trend week from early May. Something you do not see that much on a chart. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18700 bull case: Absolutely nothing for the bulls today. They had their try yesterday and fumbled the ball again big time. Bears just crushed them right from EU open to close 350 points lower. They only thing I have for the bulls is the big bull trend line we are at. If they can not stay above it, this bull trend is finally over. So it’s do or die for bulls over the next days. If they can produce buying pressure again, it would be fitting that this week closes as a red doji right under 18477ish. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears crushed the bulls again today. They had an amazing setup to break above the expanding triangle and go for the highs again but I think this market is done with the bullishness and we have seen the last of 18000, once we drop below again. More probable is that this market moves sideways for many more weeks between 18000 - 19000 before a catalyst turns everyone and their dog bearish again. Bears need to drop below 18200 with force. Invalidation is above 18660. short term: I would not long anything until bulls trade back above the 1h ema again but shorting down here is suicide as well, unless bears just melt through 18200. Most likely outcome tomorrow is sideways for dax between 18240 - 18450. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just short anywhere and go away. Pure weakness since Globex and EU open just sold everything. The open price was the high of the eu session, to the tick. Happens handful of times a year.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Is DAX showing something interesting for the bulls?#DAX EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR DAX seems to be showing some positive signs for the bulls, however, we cannot get comfortable with that idea yet until we see a clear breakout. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by easyMarkets
Heading into pullback resistance, could it reverse?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 18,700.48 1st Support: 18,517.05 1st Resistance: 18,808.45 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DShort
by ICmarkets
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Broad bear channel lives on. Bulls printed a big bullish bar closing at it’s high today, right above the daily ema. Today was bullish enough to expect another leg up to at least 18700/18800. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18300 - 18800 bull case: Globex made the low of the day and bulls actually stayed below 18500 but the CPI print lifted everything up, so they got their spike to 18670. Bulls want at least to touch the upper bear trend line around 18750 tomorrow. 1h 20ema should be support. Invalidation is below 18550. bear case: Bears kept it below 18500 which was decent but CPI made them give up. I do think they won’t try to sell this until we get to the upper bear trend line and depending on how strong we move up there, they might not step in until 18800. Invalidation is above 18700. short term: If we stay above 18600, it’s max bullishness, until bears get below the 1h 20ema. Below 18500 it get’s bearish again. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Bull trend since Globex. Not a single 1h bar close below the 1h 20ema.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
Bearish drop?DAX (DE40) is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could potentially drop to the pullback support level. Pivot: 18,396.65 1st Support: 18,225 1st Resistance: 18,531.90 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DShort
by ICmarkets