Get started

D-DJI

The DOW Road has Ended. Now Welcome Hyperinflation.The market has chosen a way to profit throughout all these years. This is the end of this way, QE lead us here... in this dead end. Equities was the "gold" of the time that passed. Now this is changing... If you read until the end of this idea, you will realize that a lot is changing. I will briefly analyze this chart and what it tells us. This is the ratio of equities compared to yields. I have modified yields using an equation I made up. This channel is drawn from 01/01/1950. This is a date I use since this is the day America 2.0 was born. I have talked about it on the MV = PQ idea linked in the end of this idea. Well, we have just missed this trend... Right now we could be witnessing the very beginning of US 3.0. Long-term technicals on this chart are deadly for DJI. So this chart above suggests that the new big thing is bonds. As you will now realize, this is not the entire story... The following are IMPORTANT: There are some things that trouble me... SPX compared to energy is showing signs of stagnation. There is substantial drop for equities ahead of us. So okay, energy cost is going to increase compared to equities, that is something we have taken for granted the past few months. We have talked about this a myriad times... This is not the entire story. This chart below shows that energy increases will overperform yield increases. So in a sense, inflation (calculated from commodity cost) will overperform yields. Inflation is poised to increase much more than yields. Until now yields were consistently decreasing, now there is no more room down for yields. Even if yields remain stable on today's levels, this chart suggests that energy prices will still increase. If yields increase, energy prices will increase more compared to yields. This is a recipe for hyperinflation... This chart below, shows more evidence towards the same conclusion... Basically, "long-term inflation" (PPIACO*GOLD) is creating bull-flags compared to "total money created from yields" (mod-yields*CURRCIR). This means that the cumulative price of production cost and gold cost, will substantially increase compared to what bonds yield in total. Conclusion: Chaos. No matter what politicians want, things are out of control right now. These charts suggest that. This is a long-term phenomenon which cannot change from free will. Nature is more powerful than we could ever hope to be ourselves. These charts are simply scary. I don't have the words to explain much. The charts speak for themselves. I am sorry for the rushed post, and any mistakes that I might have done. I began writing about DOW, and I found out that there is much more happening right now... We all knew that we could have increased cost of energy, and stagnating equities. I couldn't put the scale of them in perspective. I hope that these charts gave you some perspective, they certainly gave me a clear perspective. PS. While we cannot avoid what is coming, we have the power to choose what boat to take. The stranger told us that we cannot be in two different boats. We are basically obliged to choose our path. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
10
DOW JONES almost on our target. What's next?Two weeks ago, we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down: The price has almost hit our 33100 Target and we think it is time to look into the longer term. We made a case on the idea above that Dow is currently repeating the October - November rally, as the RSI pattern is identical. In addition, that larger pattern could be an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which is a bullish reversal formation, in fact it may be characterized as the bottom formation of the 2022 Bear Phase. As a result the target can be as high as the Shoulders Resistance, the Higher Highs trend-line. If it is inversely symmetrical to June, we can expect a +12.78% rise. This gives us a target for the next 4-6 weeks at 35400. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ULong
by TradingShot
The Case for UnemploymentUnemployment is tricky. You just cannot announce high unemployment. The political damage is too much to take. But unfortunately, the time comes when unemployment just increases... Every sane person would want the economy to remain calm for as long as possible. This is not sinister or bad. After all, it is in the duty of Governments and Central Banks to keep our daily lives as calm and peaceful as possible. Bad unemployment data is inherently bad. It is worse than bad inflation data. So it is always a tricky situation... After the inflation chaos, calm has return to the financial world. Volatility and inflation is lower, equities are higher! So all is well! Not only inflation is lower, but also unemployment! With an ultra-low rate of 3.4%. News just couldn't be better! Initial claims is also breaking down, signaling better days ahead... After all, low unemployment is good! Right? Not so fast fella! Low unemployment is good for, well, employees! But it is bad for corporations! Finding skilled personnel is incredibly hard. So much so, that most companies underperform. They just can't grow! I believe that unemployment does not necessarily break the economy. And the economy does not necessarily break the unemployment. It is a mixed bag... Sometimes, businesses benefit from high unemployment. If the antagonists fail, others get their workers, and most importantly, the piece of the pie! Some companies grow while others fail... Believe it or not, low unemployment is risky. Especially when it is in a 54 year low... It just cannot go lower! Recent unemployment data is perfect. However, Continuous Jobless Claims (USCJC) may give us a new perspective... It is at times like these when we see conflicting data. Continuous Claims increase while unemployment rate is decreasing. At that period, the official unemployment rate was making lower lows! This is deeply concerning. Especially when it is eerily similar to 2020. Perhaps it is a shift of balance right before a crisis. Perhaps a period when long-term employees lose their jobs since companies attempt to cut down costs. Instead, they hire less skilled workers with lower wages, perhaps for part-time jobs. This may be the last attempt of companies to stay afloat. It is also the last attempt for families to stay afloat. High food prices necessitate work at all costs, no matter how low... A crisis may be brewing... A Black Swan one, just like 2020. The Big Tech bubble is literally hollow, full of derivatives aka weapons of mass destruction. And the scale and the ramifications of such a crisis are still unknown. (By inflation pressure I mean the amount of work the FED does to fight inflation. While this chart increases, inflation gets out of hand) Perhaps all of this is meaningless. Only time will tell what will happen... WW3 commence I guess? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
ECONOMICS:USCJC
by akikostas
3
DOW JONES: Ranged until it breaks the 4H MA200 and turns bullishDow Jones remains neutral on the 1D technicals (RSI = 47.239, MACD = -227.510, ADX = 31.577) as the price has been mostly ranging for 2 weeks between the 32,600 Symmetrical Resistance and 31,800 Symmetrical Support. Todays rejection should give one more pull back to the Symmetrical Support if the 4H MA50 breaks. On the other hand, a full 4H candle closing over the Symmetrical Resistance, will most likely cross over the 4H MA200 too and target long term P1 at 33,450. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
U
by InvestingScope
3
$NDX leads but has had issues in this area beforeBeen away for a week, needed time off. Visited family. Did some light trading, mostly closing closing puts sold as most of them expired worthless = We kept PREMIUM! 🙂 - Let's see how markets fared. - As we expected, $NDX has done decently & has kept retesting the upper boundary hit in February. It's breaking above today. BULLISH if accompanied with volume. As we've stated for months, markets don't act as most believe. They are irrational much of the time. - $DJI has not fared as well BUT will LIKELY join #NDX in the upward movement. The issue was 2 #banks on the #DJI. The #DowJones fared much better during the beginning of the year but lost leadership in February. - $VIX has stayed in the middle part of the Symmetrical Triangle. Which tends to be the case until as extreme direction ensues. As stated countless times this can stay the case until mid 2024! Most likely not but it can. We believe it will touch the bottom part of the trend, higher probability, before, IF, it hits the top part again. #stocks #stockmarket #vix
NASDAQ:NDX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
SPX - DJI - NDX - Going higher after small pullback ?Interest rate decision is in less than 15min and a 25bps hike is expected. Markets have run ahead of it this week so a small pullback is likely but as long as prices stay above the dotted Invalidation levels, there's nothing to worry and we should resume higher tomorrow probably. From a risk/reward perspective, I think it's a good idea to look to go long, may it be relatively strong individual names or simply buying the indexes. It's also a good idea to go for some select names in the crypto space, like BTC, ETH or some newer ones like OP, CFX and VIB.
TVC:NDQLong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
$VIX has sold off after top call, now what? The $VIX is trading within the symmetrical triangle, still. As mentioned many times over the last year this pattern can take many months to resolve. Long term traders have to be patient until this revolves. Short and intermediate time frame traders can use the tops and bottoms to implement buys and sells to maximize profit. It's what we've been doing. At the moment it looks like the bottom part of the trend is calling. Not to pat ourselves in the back, again and again, we did call this to be a volatile year. Don't see a resolution to that until the triangle is broken.
CBOE:VIX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DJI - End of the Grand Super Cycle? Dow Jones wave 5 cycle from 1896 to 2022. DJI perfectly tags Waves 1-2 and 4, with 3 and 5 being overextended. Wave 3 went to the 200% and Wave 5 went to the 223%. For those who do not understand Elliott Wave Theory I would recommend reading EWT Principle by Robert R. Prechter Jr. A controversial issue is whether the severe economic recession accompanying the termination of the current Grand Supercycle will take the form of either a deflationary depression or a hyperinflationary period. Robert Prechter has repeatedly stated that the collapse will take the form of a deflationary depression probably followed by hyperinflation. In an October 2006 interview, when asked to make his case for deflation and the key factors that supported it, Prechter said: The credit bubble: the fact that we do not have currency inflation as much as we have credit inflation. And credit bubbles have always imploded. The amount of dollars out there that are greenbacks – actual cash – is minuscule compared to the dollar value of credit instruments. So in my view the Fed is utterly powerless to prevent the ultimate deflation of the credit bubble. And some people say, "Well, they can print money." Fine, that would just make the credit bubble collapse faster as soon as bond holders realize that's what they were doing. There's no way out of it. So that's the argument. Well, the hyperinflation part is a pure guess based on politics. It has nothing to do with reading markets. I think the markets are telegraphing deflation, and I'm very confident about that. Hyperinflation to me is going to be the natural political response. I mean these people in Congress are so irresponsible – except to themselves and their families, of course. They always get re-elected so they're doing that correctly. I mean, it's working for them as individuals but it's not working for the country. Anyway, to save their own skins I think the most likely thing is that they will turn to the Treasury, whether they keep the Federal Reserve System or not, and say, "Let's print, let's get the machines going and print those greenbacks and spread them around." Happy reading! Brad
TVC:DJI
by Bradtheinvestor
Yellow Brick Road Gold & Orange brick road Bitcoin Through-out the history of finance time decay happens, people forget its human nature. Federal funds climbs the wall, people panic followed by entering the market causing a return to normal, everything is fine this time is different. Whats that? the Federal funds start to fall faster than the Berlin wall, this is good right, cheaper effective cash. As the layoffs rise, the inflation falls, as inflation falls governments can't generate income taxing deflation. Easy money starts to flow as rates continue to fall, SPY must rise tall!, continues to fall, follow the yellow brick road with Gold, follow the orange brick road with Bitcoin. Yellow rises fast, orange even faster and more violently! which asset will declare victory? When the wizard drops the rates, be careful shorting Bitcoin and Gold sometimes reality is hard to understand. \\ Signing off
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
5
DOW JONES Sell the rejection, buy the breakout.Dow Jones is above the MA50 (4h), approaching the Falling Resistance of the February 14 Top. It also is on the 0.382 Fibonacci level, so a rejection is quite probable. The long term bottom though is in as the price is rising on a Triple Bottom. Trading Plan: 1. Sell the Resistance rejection. 2. Buy a break over Fibonacci 0.5 and MA200 (4h). Targets: 1. 32100 (MA50 (4h)). 2. 33600 (Resistance 1). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is rising steadily on Higher Lows. This shows a sustainable move and serious attempt to break the Falling Resistance this time. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: This is a continuation of this long term trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingBrokersView
4
DOW JONES has started the new bullish wave.This is basically to last week's buy signal at the bottom: As you see Dow Jones (DJI) made a new Lower Low (bottom) on the 4-month Channel Down and broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again. The move is supported by a Higher Lows Zone (as is the RSI), similar to the previous Channel Down Low in late December. With the Fed Rate Decision tomorrow always unleashing volatility, we can see one last pull-back and then rebound towards the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and our 33100 Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ULong
by TradingShot
1
forget about the economic dataRecently investors started to care about economic data too much. Always advanced economic data is making the market, not the current data. Of course right now is very bearish cycle. But Dollar is getting weak and Powell is very dovish and stating the disinflation's possibility. We have to predict May's data not the March's. Data dependant investing always lead to the failure. I think the economy will move as what the Fed is wanted now near future. I see a reversal Head and shoulders pattern from DJI. I am bullish from now on.
TVC:DJILong
by illuminating_trade
30
Will explain why market will go upPlease, look at the chart that SPX broke the long term downside trend since this year early-January . If you see my previous analysis I was very bearish since middle of 2022. Normally long term down trend reversal last at least 6months. Upside has shown for 3months now. I personally belive that one more quarter is left to play bullish further more. 1st. the gold price is holding strongly. 2nd. the copper price is holding strongly. 3rd. goverment yield is falling sharply. 4th. Dollar index is indicating bearish signs now. I saw lots of positivie signals in 2020 march despite the covid crashing destroyed all equities. This pattern looks similar now.
TVC:SPXLong
by illuminating_trade
3