Why I Believe BTC and The Crypto Market Is Heading HigherHello all!
As I was recording this video, BTC has made a new yearly high!
Hope you all enjoy!
Thanks!
D-XBT
Bitcoin (BTC) • Macdonals Applications are OpenWe just hit another major support level. Those doing "buy the dip" kind of strategies this seems great opportunity to add to the stack for the long term. I'm certainly buying here.
Can we go lower? absolutely. The break of the 40k came faster than expected and open the door for other lower technical levels as we continuously don't see strong fear or bearish sentiment in the market.
Volumes on the Weekly and Monthly charts remain unimpressive they don't scream "the bottom" but one important note is that the books on the sell side are extremely thin and this could equally shoot up and leaving everyone behind.
Futures are starting showing signs of bullishness but not fully there yet wee need more consolidation and keep sweeing swaps trading bellow spot more aggressively to affect funding rates favourably to longs.
We also still missing bullish divergences in most timeframes as well as breaking some structural trendlines on top of price or even the RSI.
A reminder that my views are just hypothesis and they are obviously subjective so take everything I say with grain of salt.
If you interested in getting access to same scripts I use myself use the link down bellow in the signature for exclusivity and paid access OR alternatively check my published script library where you will find plenty of free scripts.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Year end Bullish accumulationStrong support base remain unchanged while we keep tapping into these lows. Books are super liquid on the bid side from 45 down to 39k.
Strong possibility of revisiting lows at 43.9k quarterly open.
Funding been relatively flat leaning negative with brief flips towards positive. But perpetual swaps basis keep more consistently trading bellow spot.
General crypto twitter sentiment is bearish.
Around 5B will expire tomorrow in the Options market but these moves we are seeing are already reflecting that settlement event.
There are insane amount of open value allocated toward puts but put/call ratios is very low. There is a significant divergence between open value and put/call ratios which is looking bullish as well.
Futures premiums are quite normalised and not seeing huge short pressure any more for quite awhile with exception of volatility in last few days.
Most volume is produced at lower swings and rarely on pumps. Weak hands distributed to stronger ones while there is little fomo ( people not bullish)
Remember that my views are merely hypothesis and trading decisions should account for proper risk management based on risk-reward and probabilities.
If you are interested getting access to the premium scripts i use personally you can find the link bellow OR you can look for the free ones in my published scripts page.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Strong support base There is general fearful sentiment in the market that is sounding bullish to me and on top of consistent consolidation at lows.
Funding rates more or less flatlined and keep going back and forward but swaps been trading consistently bellow spot, specially Binance and OKEX. Which is good news.
Futures also showing some strength in the premiums while price marking down. Which suggest that short/hedges are getting closed and/or new longs are taking place.
Open Interest is also rising while we marking down. We are likely to see some shakeout moves before starting marking up.
The books show significant support base down to 40k confluent with the technical support levels based on swing lows but also monthly and quarterly opens.
Overall I think is terrible idea to be short in this market. I'm actually feeling super bullish rn.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Fear is spreading. Good I recommend anyone to take a look at my previous videos where I cover points I didn't cover in this one.
but in the one we revisit the technical levels I am looking at and their confluence with what the books are telling at the moment.
Reminder that the nature of the books is like a living animal but so far it has been quite steady. What we need to see is that support around 42-40k range to hold well in case we get there. The upper ranges up to the 69k is pretty illiquid at the moment.
Watch the video for full details where I also briefly touch on the Options open interest for December contracts.
REMEMBER guys... take my videos as probabilities statements and/or useful heuristics to look for when we are making your own trading decisions.
✌️
Bitcoin (BTC) • A shakeout in the making before 70k?Price is currently looking somewhat weak and the books are very crowded on both sides.
My assumption is that the market believe 58-60k is strong support due to monthly opens but there is also a good chance we see a bear trap by visiting bellow 58 and incentivising panic sellers to jump in plus plenty of stops just under the 58 down to the 54 range.
Watch the video for explanation of the hypothesis.
Bitcoin (BTC) • A structural look at the price OK Bitcoin is looking good.
In this video I talk through the fact price closed above monthly down-candle opens and so far trends remain healthy.
Quick glimpse through the books show some resistance at the 70k range as discussed in previous videos and that after recent moves at the date of this video liquidity from 67 to 62k is a lot a bit more flat at the moment. As described in the video maybe good idea to have some orders place at 63k range just in case they decide to flash crash this to wipeout some leverage out of the system.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Respect the trendThe books show significant cluster of orders between 50 and 52k. Right after up to 60k not much (for the moment).
Which implies that a move very fast towards 60k could happen if we break 52k.
Swaps trading consistently above spot BUT similarly like in the previous bull run from 10k. We have Binance and OKEX perpetual swaps trading bellow.
This implies that there is good chance we can mark up from here. Despite this being natural range to be bearish.
I would expect a major correction possible toward 44-42k but perhaps that will happen after we retest 60k.
Unless we see a swing failure after 62k due to absence of strong liquidity above that range. I talk about this in the video.
Ultimately we should respect the trend. At the moment Daily, Weekly and Monthly are looking good.
Check the video for my detailed thoughts
Bitcoin (BTC) • Good chance we are in a bulltrap. Here's whyLet me preface that my views can change at any point IF I see evidence for such.
In the video I walk trough the points that are making me feel that the probabilities are high for a possible bulltrap and we are at distribution levels.
That are plenty of signs we are hitting distribution range YET this can be delayed longer than we expect has market makers keep manipulating the liquidity (I can see this activity in heatmaps of orderbooks that I didn't show in the video)
Prices are being propped up with relatively low effort that is why price been marking up while on low volume. I think this is a way to get bulls DCA strong into the move not knowing that a possible "rug pull" will soon executed.
Open interests on most altcoin's perpetual swaps derivatives are incredibly high with an unusual crazy 3x jump in just last weeks.
This is a sign of a market that is getting over it's head and sanity will soon need to be re-instated with massive liquidations.
Check FULL video since is walk through several different points.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Everyone looking to short the resistance... Bitcoin sitting right under the 50k resistance. Books confirm a lot of sell pressure but above 52k that liquidity quickly disappears.
This suggest this may be temporary blockage and the fact we marked up so fast on low volumes toward this ranges create condition for a consolidation where a lot of bear will show up and short the derivatives market.
We already see funding rates declining and derivatives exchanges like Binance futures and OKEX trading bellow Coinbase spot while open interest is high.
I think as more bears pile into their shorts this will create the necessary conditions to pierce through those 50k-52k orders.
While price trades above 44k it is structurally bullish (according to my own interpretation).
I currently see the 46.7 as nice bidding range in case we see quick visit there.
But overall if more short pile more likely we will end up piercing trough the 50k sooner.
For those interested here's an EXCELLENT interview with Caitlin Long and George Gammon on why Wallstreet with their traditional finance products (and mindset) will get rekt trying to 'tame' Bitcoin. I recommend whole interview but from minute 33:50 Caitlin drop nuclear bombshells.
www.youtube.com
Bitcoin (BTC) • Low supply & Demand while MM Barts in control Market Makers are now in control as we can see with those Bart patterns forming up as demand faded away and supply is also weak.
We have strong orders in the books around 47.5 and 50k acting as major resistances across the board.
Swaps now showing more frequently trading above spot which implies bearishness BUT we don't have yet the structural daily trend from the lows broken yet.
Finex longs are in slow decline and perpetual swaps in open interest ate back to very high levels which implies liquidations to come soon enough.
Altcoins are not rallying aggressively at local top levels. When we see this sort of fomo momentum into resistance probability distribution generally favor a reversal to come soon.
Bitcoin (BTC) • We hit resistance levels. Pullback soonBitcoin is getting ready for a possible correction.
In this video I go trough the books, talk price levels to look for and also very briefly talk trough some futures data.
Next video I will cover some other points like futures premiums and swaps v spot basis or finex long/short ratios.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Bulls be careful out there. It might get ugly!Bitcoin is currently widely claimed as back to the bull market by popular youtubers that are calling the bottom and that are 100% long. On top of that we have a bubble popping out with a boom of Glassnode analysts selling millions of newsletters with in-chain data that everyone sees. "Institutions are buying/accumulating"
This is alarming to me.
I tend to believe that Price (and volumes) is truth.
That is why I'm also a big of Friedrich Hayek's "The Use of Knowledge in Society" where he notes the importance of the Price System in a decentralised network.
Bitcoin still trading bellow the 47k range and above 35k which to me signal we are in neutral territory. But I have reason to change my stance and become more bearish because of weird price action and volumes coming out of spot and forward contract futures.
Check the video for my latest thoughts and remember that his is all my subjective interpretation.
Use information in the video to help develop your own critical around these things.
It's not about being contrarian or just follow what everyone (including me) says but to arm yourself with mental models.
Navigate trough uncertainty or probability and develop your own thesis and sub-consequent plan.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Return of the Bulls? lets take a look...Nice momentum showing up on Bitcoin. We pierced right through 35 and 37k important levels. Price now need to sustain above the 35k to be in relatively bullish waters before next resistance range.
However, we are not yet back into high probably bull market trend since we have the 45-47k as a very significant range (50% between local top and local lows)) and we didn't see significant volume capitulations at lows. The only thing that was super bullish during past weeks was the consistent negative funding rates but they were not super negative either and we are now observing a quick slight flip in those rates.
Higher timeframes are still in flat waters with no clear direction since we are trading inside the price established weekly ranges
Be aware that most price action since the drop has characteristics of a trading range and it's likely we see some shakeouts so that alts get pushed down vs bitcoin dominance even further. I cover some of that in the video.
As usual the video went long because I also cover futures data points, some new and some old, but on balance all useful information to learn from and keen an eye on.
LET ME KNOW if I should do smaller videos but more often and different points (not cover all) here and there instead of one massive weekly video.
My regards to all Moon Kings out there 👑🌖
BTC | XBT | LONG | Areas of InterestWith the large accumulation over the last two months, most of the buy-side imbalance levels have been broken on #BTC. While this is a great opportunity to BUY BTC traders/investors must be careful of the huge risk taking a buy-side trade at this point.
If we break $31,000 on the daily we will be heading lower towards 28-26000 $ for #BTC
On the other hand we have one last buy-side imbalance area of support for buyers, which could drive price back towards $37,000
Look to see a few Sell-side imbalance areas broken if you want to be risk adverse on the long setup.
Don't forget to follow me on Tradingview 🤴🏾
Happy Trading
Mr Ionic
Bitcoin (BTC) • Crab 🦀 Season Not much has changed since last video. We are still trading above 32k yet to test the 35k (and sustain above it).
Basis and Funding Rates still predominantly negative (favouring longs).
Macro trends are looking terribly at support range and all eyes should be focused on the daily and intraday start break above 35k which is the range equilibrium.
IF we trade consistently bellow 32k I would consider that structurally bad.
But hey! in a trading range - otherwise known as crab season 🦀 - we are at the merci of market-makers and algos that print those famous bart patterns.
I like to pay attention to volumes signatures. Where are they forming and what is the backward context to recent PA.
Check the video for my latest thoughts.
Bitcoin (BTC) • It's all about volumesIn this video I do the normal routine. Talk trough the trends, volumes, some technical levels based on price, FTX and Deribit Futures, Perpetual Swaps v Spot Basis, Funding Rates, Open Interest, Liquidations, Bitfinex Long/Short Ratios and volumes on CME and BAKKT Futures forward contracts.
More reasons to be bullish than to be bearish at the moment but at the end of the day... the trend is you friend.
Now is time to pay attention to what is going on in the lower timeframes as it will affect the Daily and push the weekly/bi-weekly out of bearish waters. Breaking the 36-37k is particularly important.
Bitcoin Bullish Divergence and Bullish HopesHello dear community, here is briefly covered Divergences topic on Bitcoin.
Divergences on RSI is one of my favourite trading signals.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Sell pressure strong despite significant demand We failed to regain 36k. 😩
No reason to be bullish here despite the ongoing evidence of accumulation going on.
Orderbooks on Coinbase and Binance certainly look very strong but so is the incoming sell pressure. This selling might be related with recent shutdown and cracking down on mining facilities in China. Hey, this is just speculation but the trend is your friend at the end of the day.
Daily and Weekly Trends petty bearish at the moment but we still have a few support ranges just under us with a major one at 28k.
Let's take a second look following my previous video.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Are we heading to 10k?Apparently there are some people out there already calling for 10k. 👀
In this video we take a look into Volumes and data coming from Futures.
Watch the full video for my general overview packed with useful information you can incorporate in your own analysis.
I talk through some heuristics that can be helpful to assign odds and further develop your own thinking around these things.
Remember that everything I discuss in the video is subject to random circumstances of the market. Likewise treat everything as hypothesis and probability.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Time to short 40k?There is strong going demand. Intraday Volumes at lows are looking great and the Daily seems to picking up a nice steady grind.
37k is a nice bidding area in case of retest of lows to create a bear trap. Remember that this is also a probability.
Futures also showing some ongoing strength and Swaps trading bellow spot which implies strong demand coming from spot (or degens shorting and getting rekt in the process).
Check the video for more details.
I'm trying to get these videos max around 7m. I failed again. 🕯
Bitcoin (BTC) • Pullback while we don't have stronger signs Bitcoin finally broke the trendline coming from the top and it's likely that is on a corrective pullback (not return to bull run)
I don't buy the "we found the bottom" narrative just yet since we don't see strong volume signs coming from different markets, specially futures.
Funding rates are also pretty flat at the moment which reveal a lot of uncertainty.
At the moment I see potential correction to 45k range (max 48) then retweet recent lows once again. But it can easily keep marking down further from here since that is the dominant trend (a mix of daily and weekly) at of now.
Bitcoin (BTC) • We might have NOT bottomed at allCurrent correction going on as expected BUT more aggressively than expected.
Chances are now in for a possible retest of 45k and new lows at 25k due to ongoing gaps visible on BAKKT and CME.
The 25k range is also confluent with Monthly average of November and a relative 50% between the high/low during that period of time.
Here's what I think might happen. (but its irrelevant. We should evolve with the market)
