Futures CME / 6C 03-18 / D6H2018 (CAD/USD)The best entry point to Buy
Futures CME / 6C 03-18 / D6H2018 (CAD/USD)
Chart 1 hour
Buy by Market = 0.77790
Stop Loss = 0.77535
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Hello!
Dear traders, until now I could not write in the comments to the transactions or the message because I was blocked for 1 month.
Therefore, today I will write all that I have done with all transactions for the past month.
Some of my transactions were blocked by the administrators of the Trading View, so I will send a screenshot of these transactions.
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D6
***Short Opp***Really looking for price to get into our discount zone which is the area between the purple (89 week sma) and the yellow (89 day sma) to make a trade in the direction of the trend. However, this is an exhaustion candle here with the red arrow. This indicates the market testing new higher highs and then closing much lower than the high. The market didn't like those high prices and got exhausted.
Small opportunity but nevertheless an opportunity.
One could sell the futures contract or short the call option for a more conservative option (Pun intended)!
Futures trading involves series risk of financial loss and is not suitable for every investor.
As #OPEC Meets, #Crude May Feel DisappointedTomorrow, members of OPEC will meet in Vienna, and it is unlikely there will be any policy shifts. Despite the dire straits some OPEC members are in, such as Venezuela, the current crude production policy will likely remain until Iran and Russia agree to some sort of production resolution.
MacroView has been overly bearish since June 2014 but indicating that the one key dynamic factor in crude prices would be supply (same goes for Brent and OPEC). Essentially, West Texas Intermediate would continue to see woes until there were meaningful cutbacks in crude production, which finally began to filter through on a combination of record-low rig counts and bankruptcies (yes, bankruptcies are bullish). Crude output levels in the U.S. are at levels last seen during the second-half of 2014.
West Texas Intermediate has been trading within the current supply range between $48/50 for the last 12 trading sessions, and price action is currently treating the current trend support on narrowing price action. If OPEC disappoints tomorrow, and break through trend would cause traders to seek out support near $42, while a confirmed breakout of the supply zone could trigger buying to $55.
The weekly chart picture for crude:
OPEC's production has largely offset declines seen by U.S. shale producers, and members will continue to press on. Iran has said they look to achieve 2.2 Mbbl/day to compete with Saudi for market share; Iraq and Kuwait both look to increase their production meaningfully. Non-OPEC member Russia continues to keep oil production at post-Soviet highs.
Side note: expect volatility in commodities currencies on headline risk. The Canadian dollar has pulled back after gaining 18 percent on crude's rally, but it remains vulnerable.
For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us.
Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
A Turning Point for USDCAD?The recent risk rally has encouraged commodity currencies higher. As crude ignores the globalized downturn in economic output and ongoing "pump at all costs" mantra of producers, the Canadian dollar has hit a three-month high against the dollar.
Crude aside, traders have also factored in the fact that the potential for a rate cut from the Bank of Canada had dropped from 60 to 32 percent. Nevertheless, on a macro-standpoint, the slowdown in both the US and Canadian economies will strengthen; and traders could ditch the loonie for the save-haven greenback.
The recent strength in the CAD does allow a more balance, two-way market. We are likely to see the USDCAD continue trending lower until risk appetite wanes.
Price action has broken the upward trend that has lasted since May 2015. Support at 1.34 will likely be challenged prior to testing the 200-day EMA. The 20-day EMA has bearishly crossed the 50- and about to cross the 72-day EMA.
The only problem I see with the current down move is: volume is increasingly dropping off and the pair is no longer overbought on longer time frames. This could cause traders to re-enter longs if the risk environment wanes causing a move back to 1.3770.
Sentiment around crude and equities will remain important.
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