Why Bitcoin ATH is once again looking dangerous for longsFollowing my previous video regarding funding rates and perpetual swaps vs spot we are back at it again.
Bitcoin is once again suggesting that swaps are way too aggressively long at the top pushing funding rates into high premiums rates in some exchanges.
I do not think that shorting bitcoin against weekly and monthly uptrends trends is good idea but there is defiantly great trades that can be now done on the intraday WHILE funding rates and perp/spot basis keep trading at significant premiums.
Delta7
ETH • Ethereum • Dominant trend still upEthereum showing solid uptrend and it's not done yet.
There is a good chance of a temporary correction and any price bellow 410 is favorably a buy opportunity.
The 280 support range is the most important support range. In wyckofian terminlogy it would be called the Last Point of Support (LPS) and it's particular important because it serves as basis for bull/bear market basis coupled with that slow slope demand trendline. These LPS ranges and high timeframe trendlines are often the best Risk/Reward long opportunities.
810 Is currently a target range of this uptrend but I personally think we my see it cross the 1k. Fromt them we will like to see some sort of extended double top since we didn't see any strong correction so far. But is hype and momentum is strong in the DeFi world + retail euphorias we might indeed just simly break the ATH within a period of 3M after reaching that top.
Bitcoin steady weekly, monthly and quarterly trendsBitcoin is slowly heading towards the January 2018 open.
There are plenty of reasons to be bearish if we take in consideration extent of this bullish rally, the premium basis from Perpetual swaps vs Spot or even what the commitment of trader report suggest. BUT the TREND is still INTACT! there is no significant break from the major high timeframe trends (weekly, monthly and quarterly).
Orderbooks also showing temporary selll (resistance) cluster of orders at 12.1-12.3 in most exchanges. But those could be easly eaten with a momentum push.
But monthly and weekly trends are still looking healthy EVEN if we consider a very possible correction towards 10.1k offering that way a great RR buy entry.
VIDEO: Bitcoin UpdateAs weekly and monthly uptrends still intact as such investment strategy bias remain long on any bounces. However, we need to be aware that there are down pressure building up for awhile, including some volume weakness at tops, positive funding rates on perpetual swaps and general feel of the commitment of traders repot
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VIDEO: Bitcoin correction starting?Daily now on a downtrend but Weekly still not looking bearish. Dropping few trendlines and S/R levels for basis.
BTW let me know if videos are too long. I feel i probably could talk less and make these vids shorter.
Let me know your feedback. Maybe I'm missing something or you have a good suggestion for me.
Re my chart. Do you agree? disagree? let me know in comments.
▲ XAG • Silver Silver finally showing aggressive momentum. This breakout is putting it on a possible journey to $29 and possibly ATH.
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DELTA7 ™ Trend Score
▲ D aily • aggressive price advance. think momentum will keep pushing price forward due to correlation with past gold price action
▲ W eekly • just broke resistance at $21
▲ M onthly • heading towards $29 range
▲ LTC • Litecoin • LTCBTCLitcoin (LTC) seems to be offering great RR long entry against bitcoin.
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DELTA7 ™ Trend Score
▲ D aily • daily uptrend seems to be just starting
▲ W eekly • weekly uptrend is just starting. there is RSI divergence
▼ M onthly • still in downtrend after second wave increasing odds on W and D to reverse
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▲ VIDEO: BTC • Bitcoin • Chart, COT, Futures, OptionsCheck video for my latest thoughts
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▲ DELTA7™ Trend Score
▲ D aily • possible full retrace to get those stops and degen over-leveraged traders. retrace possible back to 9.1 (possible invalidation closing bellow 9.0)
▲ W weekly • weekly seem to regain direction targets around 9.5-10k next
▲ M onthly • uptrend perhaps heading towards 13k
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Short Ethereum (Weekly)Similarly to Bitcoin. Decided to take a short on Ethereum based on weekly trend.
To be honest I'm slithly less confident about this trade. Chances of getting stopped is somewhat high due to trading range conditions but I am ok with the risk.
I find strange we didn't see any strong volumes at the top of the trend. Monthly trend looking up.
Short Ethereum (Weekly)Taking short swing trade on Ethereum based on Weekly trend reversal probability.
Despite the good odds of a new trend. Don't disregard the fact we are in very choppy trading range and volume keep declining so chances of getting stopped are also high.
If way to many people take short... chances is that I will get stopped. But that is fine, taking calculated risk.
Short Bitcoin (Weekly Trend) Taking advantage of weekly Short flag. Placing stop at the flag level and targeting 7.1 range (non-strict) or until otherwise trend signal a reversal into an early TP.
Market is very choppy so there good chance this can be stopped out. 8.5 is also another stop/traget range.
A moon in the makingSome important resitances range from 10 to 11.6 range that will flip support once broken. Overal monthly trend is clearly showing strong signs of bullishness.
I think we are in bull marker (happy to flip view once i get Monthly and Weekly trends invalidating it) but as of now. DCA hodler will be happy to know their weekly/monhtly position building will compound nicely and consistently from now on.
That means that any DIP is a BUYING opportunity.
Bitcoin continuous consolidation range before major move🔥 DELTA7 Trend Score: ●▲▲
💡 Quick Analysis:
D aily: ● - Daily keep boucing between up/down. It's not the dominant timeframe. Reflecting consolidation just under resistance with several supply tests by the market markers while taking advantage of funding
W eekly: ▲ - slow trend with loss of momentum
M onthly: ▲ - Monthly structurally bullish possible retrace to retestest May open.
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Word of appreciation to all people following finding bits of my content useful in shaping their own thinking. I appreciate the words. 🙏
Improving your thought process is 10x more useful than just following signals or trade-setups. That is generally my main goal, impact the mind.
Be aware, following trade setups that become extremely popular are more likely get smart-money and whales working against you.
Keep this in mind that nothing is ever static in the market. Likewise, pattern setups or other type of set-in-stone setup will cause you drawdowns and getting stopped more often than not.
The key is adapt with the flow and be opportunistic as the market evolve and pay attention to higher timeframes, always.
The hindsight clout game on successful trades is irrelevant. All that matters is your own PnL. How you manage risk, money and your emotions.
If you are just following other's setups its is just a question of time until you lose all your money over time. Yes, its going to happen.
In these videos seek to capture strategic thinking not tactical setups or counter trade popular ideas just for the shake of counter trading.
"The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself." - Peter Thiel
Everything is supply, demand, fear and greed. That is it!
Supply and demand is what dictate scarcity and the different push/pull forces in the market and smart money, market makers and other liquidity providers will use "Fear and Greed" as a tool/framework to drive emotional reaction from retail and other players prone to these traps.
Best! 👊✌️
D7R
More Bitcoin accumulation? (▼●▲)🔥 DELTA7 Trend Score: ▼●▲
💡 Quick Analysis:
D aily: ▼ - Pull back after hitting resistance with some weakness. Market is fearful.
W eekly: ● - After extended rally with no pullbacks we hit 10k resistance. About time to bring some consolidation range.
M onthly: ▲ - Monthly candle structurally bullish but strong corrective pullback is still likely to shake bulls out.
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Word of appreciation to all people following finding bits of my content useful in shaping their own thinking. I appreciate the words. 🙏
Improving your thought process is 10x more useful than just following signals or trade-setups. That is generally my main goal, impact the mind.
Be aware, following trade setups that become extremely popular are more likely get smart-money and whales working against you.
Keep this in mind that nothing is ever static in the market. Likewise, pattern setups or other type of set-in-stone setup will cause you drawdowns and getting stopped more often than not.
The key is adapt with the flow and be opportunistic as the market evolve and pay attention to higher timeframes, always.
The hindsight clout game on successful trades is irrelevant. All that matters is your own PnL. How you manage risk, money and your emotions.
If you are just following other's setups its is just a question of time until you lose all your money over time. Yes, its going to happen.
In these videos seek to capture strategic thinking not tactical setups or counter trade popular ideas just for the shake of counter trading.
"The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself." - Peter Thiel
Everything is supply, demand, fear and greed. That is it!
Supply and demand is what dictate scarcity and the different push/pull forces in the market and smart money, market makers and other liquidity providers will use "Fear and Greed" as a tool/framework to drive emotional reaction from retail and other players prone to these traps.
Best! 👊✌️
D7R