The dominance of stablecoins as a divergence tool in BTCOn the top chart we have the BTC/USD index, and on the bottom chart we have the sum of the dominance of the main stablescoins: USDT, USDC, DAI and UST.
As a rule, when the dominance of stablecoins rises, the price of BTC falls.
Just look at the respective numbered arrows. The only exception was arrow number 3, which had a more lateral movement in the dollar's dominance.
Now looking at this exact moment, we have a rise in stablecoin dominance.
The next resistance is at 7.75% (if dominance continues to rise).
Dollardomination
EURUSD Short - HnS after Resisted by Falling TrendlineA HnS formation is forming after the price was rejected by a falling trendline.
Although we have witnessed a major retracement from the dollar last week, a huge portion was recovered on the last trading day.
The dollar index managed to close with a bullish candlestick after a failed double top.
Let's not forget that the dollar is still the dominating currency in terms of the current diverging monetary policies that every major central bank is adopting compared to a hiking Fed.
As long as EURUSD does not break above 1.1420, the probability of a successful HnS will be high, which may even lead to the breaking of a new low.
Dollar - Bullish Trend ConfirmedWe kind of know that the dollar will dominate the market eventually but it was kept delayed.
The dollar has struggled to break new high since its peak 2 months ago.
And 2 months of ranging market also means that the phrase is about to change anytime.
As of now, we have an inverted H&S where the dollar successfully rebounded off from the second shoulder with a very strong bullish candle.
The MACD is also showing the fast MA crossing above the slow MA above level zero, and that's a strong sign of a bullish trend.
Will the dollar finally begin to dominate or would there be another disappointment?
Well, I suggest that we trade what we see. It's after all probability.
Gold - As Dollar Rise, Gold Broke Below RangeSince the gold has rebounded off from its lowest at 1160 and reached highest 1214, the price fell into a 2-months range roughly between 1212 and 1190.
As the dollar dominates the last week of September, the gold finally broke out of its range and chose to resume its falling trend.
If carefully observed, the price tends to retrace and supported by a rising trendline, and when the trendline is broken, the price continues to fall and break new lows.
Where the price is now, it has retraced to the bottom of the broken range and 2 waves of retracement have occurred.
With the dollar set to make huge gains this month, and the gold has chosen to trade below the 2-months range, it is clear that the price will have to fall further.
Dollar - Engulfing Formation, Strong Rebound from Demand ZoneThe dollar did poorly in the month of September but turned over during the last week after the Fed raised rate by 25 basis point as expected.
The Fed chairman has also adopted a very hawkish tone in regards to the economic growth and the pace of raising rate.
The dollar is also undervalued after dropping for close to a month and became oversold as it broke below the psychological level 94.
What we have right now is an engulfing candlestick formation in the weekly chart and the dollar rebounding off from the demand zone at 94.
The rebound is effective and the formation suggests that the price will continue to appreciate.
The monetary policies between the Fed and other major central banks are also seen widening, especially Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.
October should most likely be a dollar domination month by default given all the fundamental and technical factors presented in September.
EURUSD - Strong Resistance with Multiple TrendlinesMy apologies for the late-post, EURUSD has begun falling from an important resistance level formed by multiples of trendlines.
Nevertheless, it is still the beginning of a new wave of depreciation, thus there will still be another opportunity to sell at a better price as retracement takes place in a smaller timeframe.
The dollar has successfully reached 95.6, a very key level that has held the dollar from soaring for 2 months before it was broken about 1 month ago.
This is already an obvious sign that the dollar will regain its domination in September, thus EURUSD will still have a long way to go down further.
GBPUSD - Trend Resumption; Break-Below of Retracement ChannelI guess I might have posted a little late as the price made its move down while I'm still drawing the chart.
Nevertheless, I'm seeing that the major retracement is almost or probably completed for GBPUSD.
I've labeled 2 stop loss level, a conservative and an aggressive one, for different risk appetite, and I'm certain of the trend.
The main reason for such certainty lies in the dollar last monthly candle formation, and my take is that the dollar is likely to regain domination during September.
As for the pound, there's still a lot of weakness coming from the shaky Brexit negotiation and still-weak economic data that's holding back BOE from raising rate any sooner.
Dollar Movement for Upcoming WeekHi traders! Last week must have been quite a nasty week, isn't it?
The dollar was moving strong and steadily and suddenly, it just kept heading south.
I must admit I was also too caught up in the dollar domination mentality, but with good risk management, it did not hurt my trading account much.
This is why risk management is so important despite a trader has a very good trading skill.
Because events like this will hit you one day, and risk management is here to prevent you from losing more than what you should and allows you to recover and reanalyze the market to make a better trading decision.
So why did the dollar head south? It was not without a good reason.
The answer is simply overbought. The volume of trend harmonically is about 2.3 dollars, and this time around, it has hit 2.7 dollars, about 0.4 dollars more than the usual.
There could be more retracement during this week as the dollar has yet to find a landing place for a good support, but will find one very soon.
USDJPY - The Trend Is DecidedUSDJPY has been retracing downwards since the appreciation which begun from mid-March halted about a month ago.
As analyzed on 10th August, the price rebounded strongly as it retraced into the buy zone and supported by a weekly falling trendline.
And after the rebound, USDJPY has broken above a double falling trendlines, and that's quite a confirmation for the trend to turn bullish already.
As a whole, the dollar is in domination, and it seems that even safe haven assets such as yen, Swiss franc, and gold are all losing out badly to the dollar.
EURUSD - Dollar DominationAfter more than 2 months of struggle for the dollar, it finally took control of the trend as it broke above 95.6.
As seen in EURUSD, multiple structures have been broken such as the bottom of a 2-months symmetrical triangle and the bottom of the overall range 1.17 - 1.15.
It is next to inevitable that EURUSD will face a prolonged period of rapid depreciation.
We look at the chart and suggest these 2 levels to enter a sell trade: 1.142 and 1.147.
The stop loss level as projected on the chart is already a very safe level to absorb any possible retracement.