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USD Holds Near 5-Month Low on US Inflation ConcernsIn a fragile holiday trading session on Tuesday, the US Dollar Index remained at 101.6, hovering close to its lowest point in five months. This comes as additional signs of declining US inflation reinforce bets on the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts next year. Published data on Friday revealed that the core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, dropped to 3.2% in November from October's 3.4%, below the anticipated 3.3%. Moreover, Thursday's figures showed weaker-than-expected economic growth in the US for Q3, along with a slight increase in unemployment benefit claims in the recent period. The US dollar trades near multi-month lows against major currencies, facing the risk of further depreciation compared to the yen. This concern amplifies as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Monday that the likelihood of achieving the 2% inflation target is "gradually increasing."
TVC:DXY
by Larissa-Trader
DXY (Dollar Index) Shorts from 101.800 down to 100.800The outlook for the Dollar this week is a continuation of its bearish trajectory. With a recent downside break in structure, I anticipate a correction, expecting the price to retrace into the 14-hour supply zone. Upon entering my Point of Interest (POI), I'll wait for price distribution and a change in character as a signal that the dollar is prepared for a decline. Additionally, I acknowledge the presence of imbalances above the supply, suggesting the potential for a break beyond this supply into a more premium area. Confluences for Dollar Sells are as follows: - This bias aligns with the current bearish trend that has been perpetuated. - Lots of major trend lines, equal lows and asian lows below on the higher time frame. - There's a14hr supply zone that has broken structure to the downside causing BOS. - For price to maintain its bearish trend it must react off a supply to trigger another sell off. P.S. While the dollar maintains an overall bullish stance on the higher time frame, it's only a matter of time before price sweeps liquidity and reacts strongly to a major supply. However, given the current bearish movement, It's advisable to follow the existing trend instead of opposing it for the time being. If you guys have any interesting perspectives on this market, feel free to share down below!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
US20Y Analysis. I am bearish...Hello Everyone i want share my idea about US economic indicator. US economic is very strong what we hear but when i am looking that that price action tell me they are falling. This picture is simple, if my technical analysis will work here we have some strong RSI divergence, if indicator will drop below 50 LVL we will see some little trend change at lower timeframe but, if it will continue fall then we will see dollar fall too. Price were 3 times in overbuy, first and second time it fall but not too much and third time we have more clear divergences. For my prediction i need close this month below of last month low and give me new low-high. then i will try short Dollar index. for that it need few weeks to see we are right or not but at the moment i think i am right. BE PATIENT!!!
TVC:US20YShort
by elmakacho
2
DXY and 14 Levels: Understanding the Currency Pair's TargetsWhile Himino's speech is a crucial assumption for monetary policy and the longstanding dilemma regarding wages and prices, his journey is a speculative adventure on how the concept of Wages/Prices can depart from what he calls a frozen state. Next are deeper insights into how Himino perceives and examines wages and prices in relation to Japanese households, businesses, and financial institutions. Himino then guides us through four stages of development, covering price fluctuations, labor costs, buying and selling prices, and wages. Remarkably, as BOJ has demonstrated since 2016, Himino dismisses the Wages/Prices concept in stage 1, where uncontrollable prices arise from the West through imported inflation and market changes in oil prices. How to control imported inflation and oil prices without imposing an advanced concept like Autarky on Japan's prices. As Himino points out in some cases, the complexity of Wages, Prices, and satisfaction to prevent deflation may never materialize. Throughout the speech, Himino states that if the concept of wages/prices is satisfied, questions about monetary easing must be reconsidered. Whether intentionally or not, Himino throws USD/JPY and cross-currency pairs into the mix. A worrisome aspect of Himino's speech is how a speculative speech turns into psychological reports on negative interest rates, ultimately BOJ's most important December policy, the end of monetary easing. Currency analysts and outspoken figures on leading websites in our era reveal that they can no longer fix it. Stage 1: Businesses reflect higher import prices in selling prices. Stage 2: Businesses reflect a higher overall price in wages. Stage 3: Businesses reflect higher labor costs in selling prices. Stage 4: Business price policies become more diverse, enabling them to explore strategies for selling more attractive products and services with corresponding prices rather than just good products and services at low prices.
TVC:DXY
by Gwen_Humuna
Himino's Speech: A Deep Dive into Currency Pairs and Targets In a significant monetary policy speech, Himino introduced pivotal assumptions for wages, prices, and the prolonged dual downturn. The narrative explored how the concept of Wages/Prices might depart from what he termed a frozen state. Himino delved deeper into understanding and reviewing wages and prices concerning Japanese households, businesses, and financial institutions. He guided us through four developmental stages involving price fluctuations, labor costs, buying and selling prices, and wages. Notably, in stage 1, Himino acknowledged the complexity of controlling imported inflation and oil prices without imposing a progressive concept like Autarky on Japan's prices. Throughout the speech, Himino asserted that if the Wages/Prices concept is met, questions about monetary easing must be reexamined. Interestingly, Himino tactfully connected his speech to the USD/JPY movement and cross-currency pairs. A notable aspect of Himino's speech is how speculative remarks turned into psychological reports on the last meeting of BOJ in December, highlighting the importance of the new monetary policy and the cessation of easing. Financial analysts and opinion leaders expressed their inability to repair the situation. Himino outlined four stages: businesses reflecting higher import prices, businesses reflecting higher overall prices on wages, businesses reflecting higher labor costs in prices, and diversified price policies allowing businesses to explore strategies attractive in value instead of just focusing on low-priced goods and services. In summary, Himino's speech touched on crucial economic concepts and their implications, sparking discussions on the future of Japan's monetary policy and its impact on currency pairs.
TVC:DXY
by Larissa-Trader
1
DXY (Dollar index) Shorts down to 102.500While the overall trend for the dollar remains bullish, recent weeks have witnessed a notable increase in downward movement. This suggests a potential continuation of the bearish patterns, prompting me to seek pro-trend trades aligned with this recent bias. Notably, with the price already having mitigated a supply zone, an anticipated drop towards the target of 102.500 seems likely. The formation of Wyckoff accumulation signals a possible breakdown to surpass Asian lows. Additionally, considering that the price has left a demand zone at the projected target, we can expect a potential reaction in this zone. This reaction could potentially lead to the creation of new highs and a temporary bullish trend. Confluences for DXY Sells are as follows: - Dollar has tapped into a 17hr supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside. - Theres liquidity to the downside in the form of Asian low and trendline liquidity. - Recent trend for this market has been temporarily bearish so this is a pro trend trade. - If price wants to continue going higher, there are unmitigated demand zones that price needs to come and fill. P.S Although the price has established a new bearish trend, it's possible that this is a strategic move to eliminate the trendline liquidity lingering from previous bullish rallies. Given the overall bullish sentiment on the higher time frame, it wouldn't be unexpected to witness the dollar initiating a new trend to achieve fresh highs.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
DXY (Dollar$) Shorts down to 101.500The bias for the dollar this week remains bearish, leading me to anticipate further downward trends. Near the current price, there is a supply zone on the 3-hour chart where we'll wait for price redistribution. Following that, we'll await confirmation on a lower timeframe to execute the sell trade. Additionally, I anticipate a minor reaction from the 13-hour demand zone, presenting potential small buying opportunities. Subsequently, we anticipate the price to continue its descent and then respond to a 3-hour demand at 101.500. This is where I expect the price to retrace upwards, providing a more favourable opportunity for a buy trade. Confluences for DXY Shorts are as follows: - The short term trend currently is bearish (with perpetual BOS's to the downside.) - Trend lines below act as magnets, pulling the price downwards and encouraging a bearish continuation. - To evoke a bullish reaction from the price next, there's a strong demand zone on the 3hr time frame. - A clear 3-hour supply zone sits above the current price, where we can expect a bearish response. - By the candle stick anatomy bearish candles are very strong, holding lots of momentum. P.S. I also observe the potential for the price to rise, targeting a more favourable supply zone like the (7hr) to initiate a robust bearish movement. Despite the strong bearish trend currently, we will primarily seek opportunities aligning with the trend. However, the next viable counter-trend trade would be at the 3-hour demand level around 101.500.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
DXY: The US dollar faces the risk of being sold off?Investors sold the dollar late last week at the fastest pace in a year, hoping for lower interest rates next year after the Federal Reserve ends its policy rate cut. significantly raise interest rates. State Street, one of the world's largest asset managers, said the asset manager was prepared to sell 1.6% of its dollar positions this month, the largest monthly outflow since last November. The company said. In particular, investors have enjoyed "significant" selling every day since the release of the US employment report on November 3rd. "The developments over the past two weeks suggest that demand for the dollar is undergoing a rapid reassessment," said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street. He added that the recent sell-off in the dollar signals an end to the "extraordinary dollar glut." ``Investors are thinking, ``If interest rates are really cut, there is no need to hold so many dollars,'' the expert said. Experts predict that the sell-off by asset managers may be just the beginning of a long-term trend among investors to reduce their exposure to US assets, with the US dollar weakening in November. This was the worst monthly performance of the year. According to the Financial Times, a weaker U.S. dollar is beneficial for emerging countries because it helps them repay dollar-denominated loans and potentially draws investors back to developing countries. This comes after a huge sale of foreign currency-denominated bonds this year.
TVC:DXYShort
by Chart_MasterPro
DXY update roadmap for trading heloo dear trader I am waiting for the fall ... my road map on this chart What is institutional price action? It's a tactic most often employed by institutional and retail traders. Generally, these traders use leverage to place large trades on the basis of small underlying price movement. The short-term nature of these trades makes other strategies, such as technical or fundamental analysis, less effective. stop loss need for any position goodluck... mehdi
TVC:DXYShort
by mehdi_kb
DXY SHORT TILL 98.824Certainly! Below is a more detailed and comprehensive template for publishing your idea on TradingView for the US Dollar Index (DXY): --- **Title:** Short on DXY - Target Price 98.824 📉 **Introduction:** Greetings, fellow traders! Today, I'm sharing my analysis on the US Dollar Index (DXY) and a potential short-term trading opportunity that I've identified. **Analysis:** *Technical Analysis:* The DXY is currently exhibiting signs of weakness based on my technical analysis. Key resistance levels at have held, and the price is showing a potential bearish trend reversal. *Fundamental Factors:* In addition to technical analysis, consider fundamental factors influencing the USD. Recent economic data or geopolitical events may contribute to the bearish sentiment. **Trade Setup:** *Entry Point:* I'm looking to enter the short trade if the price breaks below . This would confirm the bearish momentum. *Stop Loss:* To manage risk, my stop-loss order is set at . This is a crucial point to prevent significant losses in case the trade doesn't go as planned. *Take Profit:* My target for this short trade is set at . This level aligns with my smart money concept technical analysis. **Risk Management:** I am risking 20% of my trading capital on this trade. This ensures that even if the trade goes against me, the impact on my overall portfolio is limited. **Disclaimer:** Trading involves risk, and this idea is for educational purposes only. It's essential to conduct your own analysis and consider your risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. **Chart Setup:** I've attached my chart template for reference. **Tags:** #DXY #USD #Forex #ShortTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement Feel free to share your thoughts, ask questions, or provide feedback. Happy trading, and may the markets be in your favor! 🚀 --- Feel free to modify this template according to your specific analysis and trading style. Always ensure your content aligns with TradingView's guidelines and provides valuable information for other traders.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by AidilBahaman
USD Weakens; Currencies ResilientThe Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the greenback against a basket of key currencies, extended its decline to 103.40 (from 103.75) during the holiday trading session. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperformed, causing USD/CAD to drop by 0.7% to 1.3615, hitting a one-month low. Canada's year-on-year retail sales for September surged to 2.7%, beating expectations of 2.0%. The British Pound (GBP/USD) rebounded to 1.2605 (from 1.2540), while the Euro (EUR/USD) rose to 1.0942 (from 1.0905). Germany's IFO Business Climate increased to 87.3 in November, beating forecasts but slightly lower than the previous reading of 86.9. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) extended gains to 0.6585 from 0.6560, nearing its three-month high. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) climbed to 0.6085 (from 0.6045) on strong sentiment from Australia and risk appetite. Against the Japanese Yen, the U.S. Dollar (USD/JPY) dipped to 149.45 from 149.65 in subdued trading. The greenback closed lower against Asian and emerging market currencies. USD/CNH (Dollar-Offshore Chinese Yuan) dropped to 7.1475 from 7.1515, and USD/THB (Dollar-Thai Baht) ended nearly unchanged at 35.40 (from 35.43). USD/SGD fell to 1.3405 from 1.3420. Global bond yields rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 4.47% (from 4.40%). The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.95% (from 4.90%). Germany's 10-year Bund yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.64%, and Japan's 10-year JGB yield spiked to 0.76% (from 0.71%). The U.S. stock markets closed stable on Thanksgiving, with the Dow rising 0.27% to 35,383 (from 35,287), and the S&P decreasing to 4,557 (from 4,560). Global equity markets showed mixed performance. The VIX, measuring U.S. stock market volatility, dropped to its lowest close since January 2020, reaching 12.46, a 2.7% decrease. Increasing expectations suggest that central bank tightening measures have concluded, contributing to calmer stock markets.
TVC:DXY
by damasbryant
DXY (Dollar) Shorts from 103.300 down to 102.200This Weeks DXY bias is to expect another major move to the downside to continue its bearish trend that it has now set. To capitalise on this movement we will wait for a minor pull back up to a near unmitigated supply, (which will be the 9hr) to look for entries to get into this selling trend. From this we will look for our usual wyckoff distribution to play out on the lower time frame and a CHOCH inside our POI to the enter our sell positions. I would love to see the asian high get swept as well because it will increase our confluence for a stronger sell bias. Overall I am temporarily bearish for the dollar and I expect price to keep dropping for the rest of this year. Confluences for DXY (dollar) sells are as follows: - Price is temprorarily bearish due to the perpetual BOS to the downside. - There's still trend liquidity left to the downside that hasn't been taken. - For price to react off next there is a demand zone below on the 4hr region. - There is a clean supply 9hr that caused an impulsive to the downside. - By the candle stick anatomy bearish candles are very strong holding lots of momentum. P.S. I would ideally wait for this structure to break first before seeing the correction back up to the 9hr however, if price goes that low I see it continuing going down to reach our next demand. Which we will then anticipate a potential short term buy back up. ALSO WE HAVE REACHED 100 FOLLOWERS, SO MANY THANKS! BE SURE TO SHARE THE PAGE TO YOUR FELLOW TRADERS AND HAVE AN AMAZING TRADING WEEK AHEAD!!!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1