Nice to see setups like this. Short the .618 and take profit at the 1.618. Rense and Repeat. Next TP at the 2.618 (pink box). cheers!
So close to testing this, we are going to bounce hard off it. Weekly zoom in. Four Hour zoom in
Could be a big sell if the flag breaks - just be careful on longs, tight stops.
Not looking good here, I want to have this in my history as I cannot believe we are going to break down from it. Still feels like too obvious and a bear trap, we shall see.
Day - Down Volume - Down Volume range - Up Day plan - SELL after breakout
Volatility Expansion from last week's $62 Expected Move. I actually expect us to burst to the upside and then Fade for the rest of the week. You can see the 'Event Risk' being priced in because of the G20, but on Monday we have a $47 Expected Move in one day alone. I marked this in Yellow on the screen. Interestingly enough, Monday's $47 move brings us up into...
Thanks to the US-China trade war cease-fire, traders are set to panic back into stocks on Monday. There is strong resistance in the futures at the 2818 level. It's likely that this level will serve as resistance on the first attempt to break it. It is, however, very likely that it is eventually broken. Short ESZ8 (December E-mini S&P Futures Contract) @...
With Trump and Xi meeting at the G20 in Argentina, will we see a trade resolution that will spark a run higher for the year end?
S&P500 on the hourly chart has fired the Slope Rider signals for divergence and short entry. It's moving slowly and unconvincingly today but I think it will just keep moving lower, perhaps all the way to 2700. There aren't big volume levels below here, so once the US session starts pushing it down it may retrace to the bottom of yesterday's (news fuelled) gains.
Our first expansion of Implied Volatility in 3 weeks. Last week was $47 Expected Move, this week's Expected Move is $62. I'm not sure what this next week will bring us, my bias short term is to the upside. There's a confluence of support right below us at $2,600. But at the same time I don't like the long trade unless we see some extreme capitulation-esk move...
We have a strong bounce here pre market. This honestly looks pretty strong to me. This is my 15 minute time frame. Hey, I'm not a permabear I promise. This is the earliest timeframe that I could find a bull case for, and thought it was convincing. On my Stochastics on the bottom of the chart; My longer term Blue Stochastic has risen above the lower black...
RSI Trendline broke. There's just no way to read it other than that.. We're also up too high to anticipate a full backtest. I don't think I have to point out the horrific bear divergence. I've traded a number of Weekly, many Daily, and hundreds of Hourly indicator breaks and divergences. This will be my first Monthly.
Last week's Implied Volatility was $49. This week's Implied Volatility Expected Move is $47. So another volatility contraction right? Wrong. We've got a holiday next week folks and we've got three and a half trading sessions. Given this, I'm inclined to say it's going to be a pretty volatile week. I zoomed in to the 15 minute time frame here, as opposed to my...
Another contraction. Last week = $65. Next week's Expected Move is $50. I don't like it. I don't have to like it. Why do I care? Historical volatility is still outpacing implied volatility. $50 is what we moved in 1 trading sessions last week and right now that same move is what's priced in right now spread over the whole week. I didn't like last week's $65...
signal from Slope rider isn't complete as yet but I enter here with a tight 10 ticks stop loss, with the protection from Pivot P. the top of the regression channel is at 2715, and a strong resistance due to high volume from yesterday at 2716, I should have waited until then, but I can risk a 10 ticks. target at S1 is way down at 2675 (prices are from ES December...
Crossing up GREEN with notable volume = LONG Bouncing off RED (failed breakout to the upside) = SHORT Crossing down RED with notable volume = SHORT Bouncing off RED (failed breakout to the downside) = LONG