Today we got a little retrace and so far our Ending Diagonal pattern is intact. This would mean we should get one more high into the 4130-4170 area but well within the confines of the trendlines. If the ED is playing out then price should come into the .618% of the previous move up which would be 4018-4021 area and bounce to approximately the 4130-4170 area. ...
The ES daily time frame is in long term bearish trend. The market is near the down trend line and if resistance holds. It is expected the market to push bearish. There is a future support level below the market that would make an ideal target price point 3546.50 about -1,913 ticks below the market. As long as the market stays below the daily down trend line. It...
I just noticed this (should have seen it earlier). In the midst of a GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, the SPY fell a little over 119 points before bottoming. My interpretation of this move is that traders/investors suddenly realized the US/Global markets would continue to function - even in the midst of a global lockdown. Now, fast-forward to 2022. Hey, guess what....
SP500 Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. Here is an outlook on the stock market state for the year 2023 and the kind of scenarios we might have in the future. Trade safe, Tarder Leo.
The FOMC Decision Week - Day 1 With the FOMC Interest rate decision due this Wednesday, the markets may re-remember the interest rates factor. Whether the Fed's decision and the tone surprises the markets in either direction is going to determine if there would be a reversal or continuation of the recent melt-up in the markets. But, until that happens, the...
This morning the ES futures are down -43.50 to 4040.75 or just over 1%. I would venture a guess this is repositioning on the heels on Fridays OPEX. This micro structure is underdetermined to be impulsive or corrective as of my morning update. Below shows the difference. I am still unclear as to what this larger pattern will ultimately conclude as. First...
Everywhere I look I hear the narrative that we should be making new lows and everyone should be dumping because the Federal Reserve won't pivot and because the inflation keeps going up. Yet, at the same time that they make that argument, they completely ignore what the Dow Jones did in October, which was no less than a 4,300 point rally forming an outside bar. ...
As mentioned previously, this is my theory as of what is to come for the SPX. The fractal is from 2001-2003 as a similar bull trap had played out in the disguise of a "W" recovery or Inverse Head & Shoulders - whatever you wish to call it. I have also included the alternative, which invalidates the expanding flat corrective wave as per Elliott Wave Theory -...
THIS IS A LONG POST SO IF YOURE NOT A BIG READER THIS IS YOUR WARNING: Today I wanted to try something different and look at the cash market and go through all the scenarios objectively. For those traders who have ever wondered which chart is the chart to determine the direction of the SP500, the SPX cash market or the ES futures ? It's the SPX cash...
Review: This weeks agenda was short covering, market got too short under 3930 and we used the covering do drive us higher to our bigger supply areas where we can find more selling. We have successfully arrived at our next bigger time frame supply level. Wasn't an easy week to trade as they didn't make this move up as fun for everyone but levels held nicely...
All possible MACD trendlines of relevance have been drawn. It is time for the longer term MACD resistance lines to affirm their dominance over the shorter term uptrend MACD support lines. I think a sell off until mid-february and then a bounce until beggining of march seems like a likely scenario. Cheers.
Review of 1.26.23: Last night Globex opened and found support on our TPOC location from Monday-Tuesday right above our 4030-25 level. We used the volume from morning data to run the stops over 4046 and get us up against our resistance before RTH Open. RTH opened with the stop run over ON High into Supply area where we found our sellers which took us down...
Let me be clear. Sometimes we feel very confident about the market pattern we're trading and on other occasions we don't. For me, this would be the latter. That's why I primarily sell OTM futures options. Today, we didn't get any definitive clues. I'm sure this choppy action is like death by a thousand cuts for traders on either side of the market. But I...
SPX is in the area where I think it may reverse although higher highs to end the day is certainly possible. It has been a hard slog for bears and according to what I'm seeing on the put/call charts, the bets are mostly bullish. This makes sense in terms of price action but under the hood there are some issues. There are technical reasons why I'm still bearish...
Last night I had a social event to attend. A lot of market talk with different opinions...some very dire, some very rosy. I'm thinking to myself the market sure has people guessing right now. I had some DM's asking about being in other patterns that suggest we're moving higher...no doubt because they've been exposed to other analysis. Me on the other hand, I...
Review: Last night Globex opened and drove under 4030-25 trapping supply over which started our move overnight move. Yesterday we had signs that inventory is still low and someone is buying, Globex was used to drop the bid under Previous day low which helped get us under 94-89 and our T2 Low Support which made more people sell out into the buying under...
Raised $8,679 in Premium for next months P&L. Here's what changed for me today. Yesterday I said if price breached 4055 I need to see it take out the red trend line. I've been seeing the beginnings of an ending diagonal for a while. The overlap in the beginning when I said these patterns are not going to put us in jeopardy of price getting away from...
I've discussed in the past about technicians and elliotitions getting married to analysis. This is easy to do even for the most experienced analysts. Just the psychology of bottoming and topping turning points Elliott mused that at turning points, traders can't let go of their attachments to the previous trend and before they realize that trend ended, the new...