As we trade the day to day...the micro machinations of the SPX and ES Futures, I want to put into context where we are within the overall bigger picture. Having completed our Super Cycle wave (III) and begun to retrace in our SC wave (IV) ...you can barely even see the current decline from the high of January 2022. Within this Super Cycle wave (IV), we are...
This morning as we were headed towards the lows I decided to close all my short call positions and go flat. Am I bullish? No Am I bearish? No. The uncertainty, with so many counts on the chart, some of which we were coming into the target box, caused me to go flat. I share this with you because as you analyze markets, I want you to trust your intuition. Most...
Review: Didn't have enough gas today to get to our supply area, Globex spent most of the night between 4042-430 building up supply, break of that trapped supply from yesterday and overnight above it, that was our first red flag to be cautious today as if we were to continue strong we would have held that area in Globex. Area mentioned for possible support was...
SPY, ES, SPX are set to test the 385 support again now that earnings season has kicked off. Look for a DCB at 385 then flush after January 31st FOMC
Roller Coaster Ride - Day 2 Our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 01/24, stated: "With yesterday's daily close above 3985, our models have flipped to a bullish bias and will remain bullish while the index is above 4000. Nevertheless, models indicate a rather choppy market while the index is below 4015". As hypothesized, the market rolled over overnight and...
In an abundance of caution and since I have a bottoming count in the black wave 2, I've decided to take my profits off the table. Therefore I have closed my Jan EOM 4100 Calls in which I kept over 80% of the original premium raised and my newly opened 4180 Feb EOM calls in which I kept 35% of the original premium raise for a total amount of $15,231 in premium...
We're retracing off of yesterday's close. Since all of my counts require a retrace it will interesting to see which ones are invalidated. I stated a couple weeks back that the bottom we strike here within the this pattern weather it's a wave 2 of c or b-wave, is a bottom to buy for a nice rally to 4300-4500. From time to time I do this so I thought it may be a...
Not much to say this evening as we got no clues today. The markets stayed in a range, with no breakouts or breakdowns. The more consolidating we do, the odds start to skew towards the black count unless we get going to the downside soon. Black and purple suggest any declines will be contained above 3900. The green count, which is what the cash market is...
Review: Short covering continued today, during Globex we held above 3976-71 Support, consolidated under VWAP before then open and once we took the open out off we went, we flushed most of the supply out of this area last Wednesday so this move over 4030 was much easier without much consolidation needed on the way up. We saw our first decent correction and...
If you’ve traded the ES and the indices as a whole for any length of time you’ve heard the phrases “ The Markets is Climbing a Wall of Worry ”, or “ The Most Hated Rally ”. This signifies traders are not positioned to take advantage of a rally. Clearly sentiment was more negative than the market had intentions. I have been on the side of expecting lower prices. ...
Review: Last week Thursday we got back to our possible support area under 3930 and we could see the short covering stabilize the price before RTH at 3915-10 area which was important going forward, during RTH we failed to continue lower and only did a look below Globex low and came back in without reaching next level and taking out the low from 1.10...
Are you following my research yet? Check out my SPY Cycle Patterns and decide for yourself if my predictions are accurate: SPY Cycle Patterns for this week: 1/15/2023 GAP Potential 1/16/2023 GAP-Reversal 1/17/2023 Breakdown201 1/18/2023 POP 1/19/2023 1/20/2023 BaseRally301 1/21/2023 Break-Away 1/22/2023 Rally-111 1/23/2023 Carryover 1/24/2023 ...
If I had a $100 dollars every time I mentioned here on trading view that I spend 90% of my time analyzing and 10% of my trading I'd have a nice chuck of change. But markets are NOT linear, and that's why when I trade, I try to give myself the best opportunity for a profit. Let's discuss the (ES) chart first, then I want to juxtapose my analysis on the cash...
Opened a short calls position Feb EOM ES 4180 Strike at $23 for $11,471 in Premium. Best to all, Chris
As I posted in my weekend update that price should spend early this week catching a bid and I expect pressure as the week progresses. There is the offshoot chance that this low of last week at 3901.75 was our larger b-wave bottom as outlined in purple on the above chart so be aware of this possibility. Purple is always my alternative count. In the primary Black...
With price on Friday breaching 3969 which was the point where the purple count would become my primary over the Black count. The above chart features the old purple count as primary now. As you may remember under the purple count chances are much lower that price will make it down to the sub 3788 level. We needed to see an impulsive 5-wave pattern that could...
Long on pullbacks/failed breakdowns to support levels as long as above 3923. 3900-3923 is kinda messy chop, below that long way down. Thinking gap to 3997.5 area Monday and pullback to 3972 then rally. Pullback to 3945-3960 area also possible. Will be looking to fade the open if we get a gap to/slightly below that 3997.5 area to 3985, 3972, 3960, 3951, 3945. Will...
S&P500 tapped its major uptrend supports last week and is holding above them. Great time to go long. It's quite unlikely to go much lower. Targets are around 4500 if/when the first major downtrend breaks (likely given the amount of short positions needing to cover). After that there is one last significant resistance above the last all time high around 4800. If...