For everyone interested:
Expect volatility to be king over the next few weeks (earnings and economic data).
SPY reaching a major APEX in price trend. It is very likely to resolve to the upside, but that means we have to be prepared for "false breakouts".
Fibonacci price trends suggest current trend is BULLISH (closing GAPS). The upper GAP may be the next target...
I have no idea where the phrase from "Hero to GOAT" came from. But I know it means...
"that by his actions a person has in short order shifted from success to failure, with a concomitant move from praise to blame".
Now I used the Google Machine to post that definition so some of you won't confuse GOAT with a Tom Brady reference...."Greatest of all Time". ...
With an impulse up formed at close from yesterday's 3877 low, the 3970 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period.
W3 should begin by retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3843-3808, for w1 of W3.
Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the...
Judging by how we traded all day today I can't say we're done to the upside . I can only assume tomorrow's CPI catalyst will cause prices to spike into the target box. Upon experiencing that spike tomorrow I will soon add to my newly initiated short call position.
I believe this spike will last so that the cash market can open at 930am EST .
Upon the cash...
I may be proven wrong but I just cannot see getting above my target box without breaching 3788.00 first. I am now short -5 Jan 4100 calls at 20.50 for $5,110.90 in Premium. This is my either going to turn into a short term hedge or an opening salvo to reach a potential -25 contracts.
Best to all,
Chris
Last night I decided to look at this chart as if I was seeing it for this time. Its funny, but the first impression I got was this is NOT a chart that price is going to run away with bullishly. Many of you have heard me say that with respect to this long drawn out consolidation since the 22nd of December. Problem is we have meandered up the whole time.
But...
EIA Petroleum Status Reports are considered high-impact news, yet how much do they impact ES futures?
In the 30 minutes after it gets reported at 10:30am ET, here's how ES has reacted the last 5 times:
Jan 4: 14.75-point range, closing up 0.21% after 30 minutes
Dec 28: 11.5-point range, closing up 0.25% after 30 minutes
Dec 21: 12-point range, closing...
20ema crossing 50ema on daily, past two times we've seen a ~6% increase & ~4% increase respectively in the leading days.
20ema is currently crossing 50ema. Should rally with solid CPI on Thursday. 4060-4100 target.
I will leave an SPX update for the other site. But here is a sneak-peak of what I expect going into the CPI release on Thursday and next week
Enjoy, and don't get trapped in case we really spike up on CPI numbers on Thursday and crap from there.
And don't blame anyone if you are short and get stopped on CPI release or try to chase the market and go long on...
Today’s price action did nothing to clear things up or give some sort of advantage to either the Black or Purple counts. If the Black count is going to play out price needs to breach 3850 and then 3788. For purple to play out, price needs above 3974.
Until then we chop around with no discernable purpose. Not being a day-trader, I refuse to get caught up in...
With yesterday's spike and reversal, for this analyst, it continues to complicate things. Yesterday's rally came in the form of a 5 wave structure. For me the question remains a 5-wave structure of what? ( a c-wave to complete black b of B, or a wave-1 of purple C) In the primary black count, we came up short of a standard retracement by just 10 points. ...
Up for a measured move in the channel to 4400's until Feb 22nd ish, Down to retest the channel and bottom around March 10th. Up until May 10th ish, bottom in June 1st for a great buy.
I am not going to argue with price, but the long drawn out consolidation was very unusual to turn into an ABC zig zag. But that appears to be what is unfolding. 3985 - 4030 area is where price ideally would conclude.
Best to all,
Chris
Each time I look for ES Futures to reconcile lower, we move to the high end of the range we have been deadlocked in since 3rd week of December. Suffice to say we have no reconciliation up or down despite the 2-3% rally on Friday. I maintain my perspective that this long drawn out overlapping pattern will reconcile itself lower. But I am not interested in moving...
SPX completed a double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at Friday's 3906 high.
That 3906 high marks the completion of W2 to set up the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period.
Below 3852 will greatly increase confidence that the W2 high will hold to immediately target 3819-3795, initially.
Ultimately, there is a...
SP500 appears to be headed higher. The most widely used indicators MACD, RSI and 5/20 EMA are showing bullish. Most important is the RSI, a bullish signal formed when the RSI stayed within a tight range below the 50 than retraced above the 50 level.
Same time the MACD signal went positive
Breakout of range
Above anchored VWAP from the low
RSI above 50
...
ES Futures have been in a tight range since Thursday December 22nd of last year when it completed its initial a-wave down from the 4180 high. The overlapping price action has given me a fit to count. What started out as an expectation of a standard retracement in b of B, eventually turned into the expectation of a triangle, which is now as best as I can...
