12/28/2022 SELL IT ALL!!! Last day to sell losses for your taxes and it looks like that is exactly what people did. They sold it all and sold it fast.
US/Global markets are actively seeking a bottom at this point. We've witnessed the largest unwinding of global excesses since the DOT COM bubble and, before that, the 1929 market peak. Use this symbol to experiment with market trends/setups: (TSLA + ARKK + ARKW + ARKQ + GME ) / 5 In my opinion, the deep selling is nearly over. This chart shows the custom symbol...
Trade Plan this Week Pivot is 3875. Big levels above are 3915 / 3960 / 3990 / 4000 / 4050. Big levels below are 3832 / 3800 / 3777 / 3750 / 3712. Market Structure Short Term Trend. Spooz remains in a downtrend until we can get back above that 3915, which would be the first goal for bulls as it would put them back in firm control. The Profiles. What the market...
This is a video walk through of the SPY considering this count as a larger ABC move instead of an impulse with a bounce coming next. I do feel this count is a strong possibility but it will be wrong over 383 or more conservatively, over 387. Very few people think we can have a melt down over the holidays, and very few are thinking this is a possibility, which...
This is the futures chart. I'm using it because it lines up well with the pitchfork fibs. Overall, it still looks like we need to complete the 4th wave today (maybe into tomorrow) before the final wave down. Keep in mind the 100ma is my target but we may fall short as the weekly 18 is at 3874 currently. Many are expecting a bounce to 3900 at least, and then a...
It appears we’re in our minor b and it’s possible the a-wave of that b just completed at 3895. B waves not unlike 4th waves, are Wiley . All the complex patterns appear in B and 4th waves. We use Fibonacci to guide us as to where we are in these unique areas of price patterns...but we have to be prepared for almost anything. If in fact our (a) of b just...
There's a ton of bears out there. There's no doubt about that. I am focusing on the structure here... Now that the narrative is there, I am going to outline what I currently see here. In the next couple days, it looks like SPX is going to find some key resistance at the 3900-3920 area based on a measurement of what I predict is wave 3. This means we've got...
As we approach the topping area for what I'm counting as the "a" wave of b...I have closed all open option positions. $27,300 in premium for approximately $3,600. I did so for one main reason. Tomorrow I'm traveling for Christmas and rather be sidetracked with open positions I plan to enjoy the holidays FLAT OF ANY MARKET EXPOSURE with family. This should...
This morning futures are flat, to higher, as it continues carving out what I'm counting as just the a-wave. I would like to see this a-wave get to at least 3894 before the corresponding b-wave starts. As you can see from the below, I am expecting this larger b-wave pattern to ultimately reconcile in the 3947-4036 area for just a standard retracement...
Ideally (a) of b should target the .382 which is 3947 minimally....but be aware of a potential completion at the 3890-95 area at the .236. With the red count still hanging out there we should be prepared for shallow retraces. To the degree this b wave plays and retraces to the ideal location of 4030-4040 then the Red Count again loses even more probability. ...
I can say that the lows are in for now, but the only issue is the timing, its not going to bottom till the 22nd. So to me it seems its going to test lows 3750ES zone by the 22nd and then go up into early high next week on the 26-27th. Thursday should mark the bottom and then go up on Fri hard on the data is my thinking. That high should be limited to 3950-60SPX imo
In my weekend update I outlined the below. “However, my primary expectation is minor (wave 3 of a) completed on Friday at the 3855 level and now we’re carving out our minor wave 4. If my primary micro count is what is playing out then wave 3 extended to almost the 1.618% Fib support area . Therefore, I would expect the corrective retracement to stay slightly...
Havent updated my ES progress chart, here is one If first box is taken (which I think has high chances of holding tonight), then the second box in 3750ES zone should hold and bounce into the open. If second box gets hit early am before the open, it will be a perfect buying opportunity for me for a 100 points move up plus
Currently I am short -25 calls that expire EOM Dec 22. I'm short -10 4200 Calls which are almost worthless and -15 4100 calls in which I'm up almost 65%. Those positions enable me to put on opposing short put trades without utilizing any additional buying power . I'm now short -25 3700 EOM Dec Puts at $10.50 for an additional $13,054.50 in premium. This would...
A walk through of what I think is the most probable price action for the week. I'll update on a static chart tomorrow. Good luck!
We're coming into the bottoming zone I forecasted. As price finishes its minor wave 5 of c of larger a, we could get down to as low as the 3799 -3810 area. Price should bottom soon, in which I expect a rally back to as high as the 4044 level. This could be a nice tradeable rally for at least 120 to as much as 200 points. In the area of 3795 I may strike...
The ES one hour time frame is in a large sideways range. The market is near the bottom of the range but has not closed below support. It will be a good idea to wait for the market to enter into the sell zone before looking for selling ideas. Entry: Counter trend line break bearish in the sell zone below the one hour support. STOP: In the buy zone above the...
SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today? Lets go through yesterday CPI came out lower so US equities headed higher, DXY headed lower but now look where we are. Today we have FOMC - In my opinion we can't even close above it do we today we took back all move of CPI if we close below it I think we back within these ranges and perhaps bears gain...