This chart shows in the shaded area the time periods in which the Dealer/Intermediary group of the TFF (Traders in Financial Futures) report have been net long.
What is significant is that most of the time this group remains net short and when it switches to net long it has been followed by long periods of upside in the SPX.
The exception was in 2007 when prior...
Must hold level for tomorrow is 4172-90.
We must penetrate 4200 or 11th low to mark the temp (if not maj) high on Aug 16th
Ideal target is at 4045-60ES on this move lower and the bottom timing is on 25-26th of Aug.
Rally after into the 2nd of Sep high!
I dont want to be long going into the Labour Day weekend; market, historically, tops around the Labour...
COT data is signaling a great buy opportunity in CME_MINI:ES1! despite all the talks of this "bear rally" peaking and a coming recession
The COT data has had us in this trade for the last couple months - just 1 SPY Call profited over $2,000. Personally, I took profits last week in accordance to my trading system. However, with the COT data still pointing...
A solid Tip:
Ignoring the CME Fed Watch Tool is a best practice as it is now moving
around the Cake Walk Lines and blurring them with swings in sentiment.
Please observe what the FED actually controls (outside of rando YCC).
2YY or the 2 Year Yield Futures is the best practice.
The Spread between EFF (Effective Federal Funds Rate) and the 2YY
tells you ALL you...
SP500
Last week the SP500 hit a new local high and began its retreat. It is my primary analysis that we have topped are now starting our pathway to the 3500-3200 levels. The Purple ALT count suggests this was just the “a” wave of our larger “B” and we will be mired in this quagmire until end of year rising as high as 4600 only to retreat to new lows in spring...
This is a complex chart showing the SPY in a broad spectrum of Advanced Technical Analysis. What you need to understand is this rally has stalled after a "scouting party" attempt to identify support above the long-term CYAN price channel (which also acted as support in early 2021 on the way down).
Failure to hold this support level will prompt a very big downside...
Lower, far lower lows are ahead.
SPY Gaps:
400.76
338.66
285.67
235.77
Every one of these will be filled from October 2023 to March 2024.
The DX will return to 125.
Bond Yields 4 to 6% at a minimum regardless of the FED's utter nonsense.
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Keep it simple, the Indices will...
The US markets are experiencing a unique capital shift at the moment. Foreign capital is pouring into the US equity markets and driving the US Dollar higher.
When this trend shifts - look out below.
I'm sending this warning to all traders/investors right now. Even though my research suggests we may see an extended rally phase lasting many years for the US...
WE REMAIN IN A BEAR MARKET, regardless of the Retracement.
The 50SMA is 35 handles below the 200SMA.
Bullish?
Definetely not.
That said, the Riggers on the Trigger will continue to bleed out every
last cent prior to the next sudden and very sharp decline.
For now they have the Ball, but "Inflation is at Zero" from the Admin
has found new heights of...
The RSI support since June looks to break today. A/D at a very critical spot for a rejection off of the previous trenline. The MACD is in compression mode in a wedge formation looking for an expansive move. Bulls have to do the impossible here IMHO and anyone going long here is praying that JPOW pumps $$ directly into the veins of the market.
Last Friday right at the close you may recall I shorted the SP Futures via ES Options. At the time the SP Futures were 4274. I choose the 4400 strike AUG EOM contract as I had no Fibonacci areas of resistance at 4400 and by and large I'm conservative when shorting naked options. I received $825 per contract I sold (Short price was $16.50). I sold only 3...
Weekly Linear Chart for reference
This is a natural point in the market to consolidate and traverse to the upside....... or fail and resume it's slide down.
I would expect some price oscillation around this area before direction becomes clear. Could be shakeouts on both sides...
Last week posted this box, we now have reached the top of the upper box. 1 of 2 things are about to happen but both have potential to provide some market resistance. 1 is the box top, the other is an stop sweep over prior levels.
I will be forming a trade from the action not the lines.
S&P500 / 4H
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
S&P500 have have been in a bear trend this year, one of the high RRR strategies is to short rallies in a bear trend and go long drops in a bullish trend.
Please checkout the chart to see what I'll be waiting for before taking any swing down. The market is strong enough that news highs are...
Housing continues to implode along with China's recent Urban Outfitters.
8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) July 1.63 million 1.70 million
8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) July 1.52 million 1.56 million
Interesting China avoided its Ecuminiopolis Economy... it's worse, of course.
The Cerveza Sickness compounds across all regions.
The Hot Topic is China leaving...
US Markets
This morning I thought I’d try something different. Updating my coverage list in one post. (Comment if you like or would rather have dedicated posts). I’ll start with the US Markets. The main chart above shows the S&P Futures advancing or consolidating at the highs. I am starting to see a more bullish or technically constructive article flow from...
Thank you for your likes and comments! Very appreciated. It is not financial advise, just educational idea
See here the S&P500 giving some regular slots but only 1 out of 10 pays. The lesson here is to be verrrry patient.
New potential uptrend identified from the green circled candlestick.
New potential support probably just under with the dotted line.
The S&P500...
