15TH OF AUGUST – 1ST ENTRY (ES Futures Contract)
I started to build my swing position by shorting the market at 4275.00. At the moment I’m risking 0.25%. I’m 25 points away from my entry targets. The reasons for an early entry are:
1. Overall weak Market Structure (last 2 month-rally).
2. Weak liquidity on 4 Consecutive Days. This is suggesting me that we might...
$ES - What to do now?
This weekend, I present you many ideas in various assets and here's one chart of $ES is last and its important chart I am keeping an eye on for LT positioning.
We've had great bullish momentum due to 'we are at neutral rates', CPI steady - For now and all data is excelling perfectly this week we do have FOMC minutes and as have US Retail...
Trading pleasure abounds as the FED's non-sense continues unabated.
A thrill ride out of Bear Market Territory for ES 3849.50, the NQ was the
laggard at 13414.
13392 the larger Pivot for the NQ Futures, a hidden one, but the DOM suits it
rather well.
"Exiting the Bear Market" is the new mantra, narrative, and fresh bullhorn
as we see "Inflation - Come Off" -...
Gotta love simplistic charts....
Tried to publish this idea with the above simplistic sentence but apparently you can't publish an idea with such a few words...sometimes it's best to KISS (Keep it Simple Stupid).
The price action we experienced this past week has altered my long and shorter term expectation for the market.
Upon hitting the price peak in January and observing the structure of the market unfold as it has it's obvious we've entered a "traders market". This is completely contrary to what we've experienced over the past 12 years and I think it's what we...
The formation of price reversal candles leads to the reversal of the trend most of the time and the buyers’ arrival to the highest limit indicates that (ES) will follow the downward trend
The above chart shows the SP Futures market is topping in what could be an “a” wave of a larger drawn-out B wave higher (purple), or could be all of the B wave (Black). Technically, we have all the waves in place to top NOW. Only the retrace will give us clues as to what we’re ultimately dealing with, but one thing I feel confident in is this particular...
Just for accountability purposes since I don't normally post Friday evening...I sold 3 AUG EOM 4400 Calls for $16.50 which = $2466 in Premium. I like selling near dated options on a Friday because of the premium deterioration over the weekend. I did this trade when the ES was at 4274.
Best to all,
Chris
Today an inside day trading inside first hour. will take a trade either direction looking for a break of yesterday. If that break does not happen or we go back to middle i will exit trade. So up or down works for me.
This is not the long term trade I am looking for but could evolve into that trade.
WYZ pattern unfolding? The decline off the highs in December consists of a complex series of 3 wave moves. I'm expecting another series of three waves to a final low for this bear run.
Where will this take us? God only knows although this presupposed decline will likely be larger than the first two. For now I'm labeling the target zone at the 1:1 Fib ratio of...
I have put a box around the areas of interest to me. Also have put areas of target that could easily be stops waiting to be hunted up. We are currently in the gravity of a 6 day market orbit. 100% expect a break out, but until we do trading outside to the inside but expect each swing to get wider. So this could start to feel very trappy.
To me it's nuts to be on the long side at this levels. I understand, we declined from 4800 to 3600 and now we're only at 4200. I get it.
How would you like it if we were at 3200?
So, right now we're topping or have topped. I say that because Topping (unlike bottoming) is a process versus an event (like bottoming). Topping is a function (especially in an...
After the P5 Low, we have a super nice count to the upside. Now we may have to face that the little party is over.
Potential P5 is in and if it's true, we go down at least the the U-MLH.
An opposite view is, that price will advance to the upside even more. If that's the case the potential to reach the second Warning-Line WL2 is baked in.
The Stochastics faster...
ES broke the uptrend small channel off am lows, good sign there. Its also jumped out its upper bull trend channel, must watch for possible fake out. If it means business for the bulls, I will trade the re-test of the trendline in am.
If you look at the chart, you can see that we hit 1.618 to the penny and the price is hovering right at the extension zone. I say...
Today the SPX and ES Futures made a new nigh and whereas I can stomach 4229. I'm calling it good with the high of 4212. OMH is at this point a marginal concern. What is the focus now is will this decline be a B wave with higher levels to come in the 3rd quarter. I do not know the answer to that question...what I can share definitively is from a technical...
We can observe the weekly trend in MES which mirrors SPX and all SPX futures. Following consecutive lower lows and lower highs, we have broken the prior swing high to create a higher high. Equal highs and the weekly fair value gap above act as a draw on liquidity. Weekly fair value gap below also acts as a draw on liquidity.
Retest and ‘double bottom’ in weekly...
