NVDA ex dividend on 8th, AMZN split on 6th with anticipation of more buys going into 6th and 7th like it happened with NVDA split as more puts will come in tomorrow which means rally on 6th and 7th and then sell off from 8th to 10th until CPI data which will create more sell off from 10th-17th due to OPEX on 17th unless CPI is down due to manipulation in readings....
Last Tuesday I was doing a review and saw that Friday the 27th we broke into a balance where we still had plenty of supply over 4143.75 and our position is below 4084.50 which told me that we will most likely spend some time around here to consolidate before we can confirm direction for the next move, Tuesdays close confirmed that more and I gave myself a range we...
Two interesting scenarios here
As long as bulls stay over 4xxx, I think we see another leg up
However, there was serious volume lacking last week (could have been due to the short week) but if not, the bullish scenario could indicate MMs simply setting up to drop it again.
If 4076-4030 support holds, the triangle remains valid.
I expect chop in the 4164-4200...
4070 is the key this week
If 4070 holds, the triangle remains in play
Expect the dips to be bought targeting 4164-4180 supply
Sustained selling below 4070, we slide down to test 4055-4040
Nearest level of demand is ~4092-4080
Hmmm...
Why is JPM's 13F Put Heavy into June 17th?
Hurricane CAT 5 coming or another Gangster Trap
and Gap Higher to squeeze the 50/50 straddles...
The week ahead is gonna be a Biach.
Back to the scene of the usual suspects doing their usual things.
Blow off during Globex to a High, 420 SPY Calls... bungholed Friday
FUF trade.
TSLA / APPL fill Gaps...
We see if Wall Street wants Cake or Bacon into the FOMC.
Range & Trend for now.
Apple appears to be breaking down again, heading to 132 and then
perhaps 127 to 102.
FANG Warnings will persist.
Inflation from a lower Month over Month may drip down, but remaining
very high... yeah that is not going to assuage Consumers.
NAFC...
Trade the Range until it breaks.
Thye have been using NEws to drive Prices higher only to...
The ES Ranged this Week from 4070 to 4202.
INHO the very BEst Bulls can look for at present is
a trade Back up through the top of this Weeks Range ahead of
EPS In July to LARGE Resistance.
4303 break... I'd give that 10% probability.
Why?
The news is not going to improve - Sentiment is within
a Terminal Structure.
Yday we opened up right under T+2 and got some selling pressure right into the Key Support at 4084.50-4077.25, support held and we saw a rotation back towards the Key Resistance at 4143.75-4137.50 and we were able to break out and hold above it for continuation move to higher levels. In Globex so far we failed at our 4191-4185.50 level and failed to extend and...
good evening, or morning
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es is nearing my upside target which i called out the other day.
view that post over here:
there's a good chance it doesn't reach the target which i had discussed.
it could just turn into a double top, which would be very bad for the bulls.
a double top would be the ugliest finish to this rally which i could think of, and it...
We are at a supply orderblock which caused a break of structure below. Upon reaching the orderblock, we saw a pinbar + inside bar combination pattern. Not only that, we are reacting to the upper parallel line of the pitchfork. We can target the imbalance and equal lows liquidity below.
SPX same looking descending trendline test, tomorrows numbers will be a catalyst for the next week move.
Ideally the low will be bought and we rally up into 9/10th high
SPX has a room room to stretch to 4170 while the ES is showing a breakout. SPX is the king, so 4180SPX must be taken to confirm, next stop will be a gap fill at 4300.
Im thinking its a bull trap, tomorrow will be a tell with a possible low in am and hold then move up into the 9/10th high
Yesterday played out as expected without major changes, we stayed in the 4170-4060 range. We found sellers above our Key Resistance of 4143.75-4137.50 and sold off down to our Key Support of 4084.50-4077.25 where we found buyers. Today looks like we are set to open in yesterdays range and in our T+2 range. Today I am looking to see if we have another inside day...
At 9:30 AM EST open ES made a big move straight up that took out the Asian Session high. Then it came straight back down.
The big move plus taking out majority liquidity gave me confidence this was a Judas Swing and that price would go the other way.
I zoomed in to start looking for Fair Value Gaps and after finding one placed my Limit sell orders in the middle...
SPX/ES Volatility 01 June 2022
The current percentile of SPX/ES is around 74%
Based on this, we can expect that the market is going to be below the daily volatility, which is around 1.92%,
which at the same time translates in an aproximate +-80$ movement
For this we can assume close to 90-95% probability of efficiency based on the last years data.
Based on this...
If we look on the daily we are right in the middle between the trapped supply which we started selling out from on the 5th and the Position/trapped shorts below us, today we had an indecision day as we still have plenty of supply above and now buyers below. Im thinking possible inside day tomorrow or for the least inside Friday range, thinking we could hang out...
