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S&P 500 fut. - possible near end of correctionLooking at the H4 chart of the futures contracts on the US S&P 500 stock index, we may see a potential correction pattern. The last rebound on the US stock market reached about 50 percent of the first wave of declines that was triggered by the spread of the epidemic first in Asia and then on subsequent continents. According to the Elliott wave theory, the entire rebound looks like the ABC simple correction. Wave C could currently consist of five subwaves. Therefore, if the correction ends in the area of 50%, then there may be a return towards the lower limit in the upward channel. However, if the line through the lows were to be broken, another downward impulse could accelerate. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Daniel_Kostecki
1
S&P 500 E-mini, H4 - potential double top patternAfter a corrective movement which has appeared as a consequence of previous strong downward trend the ES.F price has created a potential double top pattern with the key resistance at 2634 pts. If this level is defended we may expect another plunge in the futures market. The level of 2445 pts. should be broken to confirm the new sell-off with potential target at 2262 pts. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 60% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Daniel_Kostecki
Big Picture: $SPX, $VIX, 10YR, $AAPLThe Dow just closed 10%, making it the largest single-day point decline since 1987. The main issue I have with this though is, there is no catalyst in the near-term to reverse things. The selling really just compounds on itself now. Very little of this actually correlate to underlying fundamentals... which is even more worrying. Meanwhile, the dollar remains surprisingly strong relative to other countries, though, versus Asia basket, we are getting kicked. Guess we'll just be waiting for ol' J.P. to take the stage next week. The $500M repo is a great starting point, but it's really going to take more than cash infusions to stop the pan(dem)ic. www.reuters.com
CBOT:ZN1!
by CrosbyVenture
“Kiwi” shows the dollar how to respond to rate cutsYesterday, several influencing decisions on easing monetary policy from the “echelon” were coming out of the Central Banks. In particular, New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates a steep 50 basis points. The Reserve Bank of India also cut the rate by 0.35%, as well as the Bank of Thailand by 0.25%. As a result, The New Zealand Dollar has been depreciating in a descending channel pattern against the US Dollar (3%). That is, the New Zealand dollar shows American how to respond to monetary easing. In this light, it would be useful to recall that the US dollar, by and large, ignored the Fed rate cut last week. That is, it continues to develop the potential for a downward movement. So, its sales continue to be relevant and perspective in terms of earnings. Moreover, after the devaluation of the renminbi, Trump’s desire to devalue the dollar increased even more. According to Viraj Patel an ING strategist, the United States might conduct direct foreign exchange intervention by selling dollars from the Exchange Rate Stabilization Fund (ESF). And this is not the only option. The Fed may make currency interventions or may be the Ministry of Finance or both bodies at the same time, as it usually happened before. As for gold, the current mood is clearly on the buyers' side, as well as the general fundamental background (the next round of monetary easing by leading central banks). Also, the Central Bank of China is actively increasing physical gold purchases, creating additional demand for the asset in the market. Nevertheless, in our opinion, gold is too overbought and for now, we will refrain from buying it in the movement direction. Now, if we make purchases, then from extreme daily lows, but in general we begin to prepare for a correction and early gold sales. Today is not rich in important macroeconomic statistics, so there is every chance of continuing the development of current trends. As for our recommendations, we will continue to sell the dollar on almost the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. Pound purchases are still interesting to us in the long term, as are sales of the Russian ruble and oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
SPY SPX Bullish Breakout ConfirmedIts not an ideal set-up, but its still a breakout with multiple levels of support below. Bottom line, we have a downtrend breakout and some technical confirmation. Again, its not a slam dunk. But my gut tells me sentiment got overly bearish, so there is fuel for a rally. And we have a whole lot of support levels all the way down to $277 SPY to hold a sell-off - trendline, 100-day moving average, 200-day. On the upside, clear sailing at least to $287. Probably higher
AMEX:SPYLong
by marketmind3
SPY - More downside still likely for SPY SPX ESSPX broke the short-term downtrend yesterday, but technicals didn't really confirm and we're seeing no follow-through today. We also saw pretty much an immediate reversal back to the support. We should bounce off support (looks like we are as I write this), but resistance is right up overhead. If we go back down and support doesn't hold, next stop would likely be back into the 2,700s, this time probably further down closer to 2,750-2,770.
AMEX:SPYShort
by marketmind3
SPY ES1! More Downside Still LikelyOne thing to note is that the market might be trying to fake a move similar to March. So far, on the surface it looks like the week-long pullback in March, which led to more rally. Today, price action looks similar but the whole set-up is different 1. Below the 50-day MA 2. MACD in negative territory and resolving a long negative divergence 3. DMI more entrenched negative. With this downtrend still only 4 days old, I'll ignore the fakeouts and stay short unless proven otherwise.
AMEX:SPYShort
by marketmind3