Weekly Forecast 2/21/2023If we expect a bullish week we want to see price trade down then up for continuation. If we expect a bearish week then we want to see price trade up then continue down.
Esmini
Trends show weakening, but market is overall flat; Look to JobsSo as I state in the video, I cashed my short out at 4148. Looking for another short to get into or just picking up where I left off at.
We had a 30m/1hr trend down yesterday, and overnight we got a 30m/1hr trend up. The uptrends overnight were a lower high on the 30m and a higher high barely on the 1hr. We are currently below the 1hr but sitting above the 30m.
Overall, I see the jobs data really driving this market back up to 4190 +\- 10 if it shows weakening, or sending us below 4100 if it shows a surprise strengthening. Currently expectations is that jobless numbers have increased from last week.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4159 Uptrend (2/9/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4167 Uptrend (2/9/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (2/7/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4142 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Economic Data;
As I said, jobs data is today. That is the biggest data point to be priced in.
Earnings;
There are a few good earnings to watch I went over in the market. All have 'sell' signals according to some website, but I don't base any stock decisions off that website.
On a technical level, there isn't much to keep us up in this area up or down. There also doesn't seem much to move us out of it. So we seem to have stalled yet again here in the mid 4100 range.
My overall sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Bearish Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Anyone else notice that the tags for certain things with the S&P aren't showing anymore? Weird.
Anyways, safe trading! Remember your risk management plan
ES Correction & Potential Bounce LevelsWe have been in a recent downtrend on $ES $SPX and a lot of traders are probably wondering where the bottom will be. A break back up toward 4553 and a hold above 4565 would signal that we have bottomed in the short term. That would not necessarily mean the bounce wouldn't fail to retest the lows but here are some potential bounce levels.
Fibonacci levels near 4361, 4278 and lower support zone below October lows near 4170-4180. This would be considered an extreme target and unlikely to reach in the short term. However with recent political headlines and the market having a risk off nature, no one really knows where it will bottom.
Thanks for following and watching. Feel free to comment and share. Stay tactical and stay safe.
