Rising wedge in ETH 4H?Hi all,
First time sharing anything on here, so thought I'd give it a crack. I'm still practically a beginner and want to get good at this, so any constructive feedback would be great to help me along if you'd be so kind. On to the attempted TA:
This looks like a rising wedge to me. I at first thought it could be a parallel channel earlier in the pattern, but am doubting that now. My logic for this is as follows:
* BTC is way over extended and at the moment, it looks like it's having a hard time breaking the most recent ATH. It almost looks like a head and shoulders on the BTC 4H chart, as well as being in a expanding ascending wedge overall, both of which are more bearish than not and will drag ETH down with it if it breaks.
* A rising wedge would make sense in that the break down leads to the bottom of the formation, which just so happens to be in the .618 region.
* Looking at the daily BTC RSI, it seems we have a bearish divergence at the moment. Doesn't necessarily have to play out that way, but it just might decide to properly correct soon.
* Historically for ETH, nearly all patterns like this have broken downward and at least wicked the .618.
* I get to draw a happy box for accumulation.
Now being that we are in a ridiculously massive bull trend, BTC can surprise us and break up because it's a rebel. In that case, it could pull ETH up to the 1.618 which hangs around the $880 mark, assuming it gets to the $27k level. So, the bullish logic:
* Massive bull trends can lead to very unexpected moves.
* The bearish rising wedge could fool us and continue on as a rising channel if the price breaks below the yellow support line through the middle and then breaks back above it after bouncing off of the channel walls.
* I get to draw a ridiculously happy take profit line at the 1.618.
To me, the bearish scenario makes more sense, but this is my first time putting a noob analysis out there, so I could certainly be wrong.
Stay safe and happy trading!
