I have been saying this on my blog for two weeks now calling for the Mexico bottom and the Peso bottom. I was ridiculed for shorting USDMXN at the 22 dollar level and look where we are now?? I expect this to continue to under 19.50 IMO.
Post-election, there isn't much out there exchange-traded fund wise with both high implied volatility rank/percentile and high implied volatility. This is one of them ... . (I've tried repeatedly to get into an EWW play, but just can't seem to get a fill at the mid price). This isn't the most liquid thing in the world, so I'm going with the most liquid...
Focus in the short term (which is 25-45 DTE for me) will be on ETF's, although opportunities could crop up with earnings (still hoping for a TWTR dip post-earnings to go long via short puts). Here's what came up on my high IVR/IV screen: BANC, IVR's 100/IV 100. Options, however, are crappy (monthlies only), but you can get something decent for a 20 delta short...
With a 52-week implied volatility rank of 100 and an implied volatility of 35, EWW -- the Mexican ETF, beckons for premium selling ... . Here, the iron condor brackets the ZigZag/Donchian channel indicated support/resistance at 48.22 and 54.25 nicely, with break evens for the setup above and below those marks. Here are the metrics for the setup: Probability of...
We will keep it on the radar for the coming months, and would like to see further strength for confirmation.
I've never played this particular broad market ETF, but it beats trading SPY et al. here, particularly since you can get a 1.00 in credit out of a short put in an sub-$50 underlying ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 76% Max Profit: $101/contract Max Loss: Undefined (it would be $4499 if the ETF went to zero and you did absolutely nothing) Break Even:...
The iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF has sustained its longest move above the 50-day EMA since September (prior to breakdown). If EWW is able to close above the 2015 resistance level at $60.50, look for a continuation to the $63-$65 area in the next 1-3 months. An initial stop loss on a stock position can be placed under $58. Option traders can consider buying the...