NZDUSD SHORTWe had a lovely drive higher off 61.8 % retracement (seen on the daily chart)
Hitting a key supply and demand zone and expecting a move lower
Exhaustion
GBPCAD - Possible final bearish push into long term supportStrong bearish price action since start of the week. I am looking for a possible final push (exhaustion) into the long term support around 1.5950.
Looking to get short on a pullback towards 1.61 with first target at the bottom of the corrective structure around 1.6050 and in extension a final target around 1.5950.
USDJPY Short-term Technical OutlookGood evening traders.
The chart really says it all, but let's discuss this. If you go back through this long uptrend you will see many of the common trend following patterns (flags, pennants, wedges, etc.) working out. That is because in a true uptrend those patterns do tend to work. However in periods of consolidation they do not tend to work very well and often times are used to manipulate traders into getting on the wrong side of the trade.
With the strong resistance at 118.66 holding over the last 5 days we are now in a period of consolidation. Furthermore, if we look at the candle sticks in this last push to the upside we can clearly see that they are much more aggressive than most of the candles in the previous pushes to the upside. Often times when a trend is exhausting and due for a pullback you will see a very aggressive last push.
I am not expecting to see this 118.66 resistance to be broken going into the holiday weekend and as long as we do remain below it we can expect to see further consolidation/downside.
Next key support below is at 116.12.
Enjoy!
AUD/JPY - Due for a correctionAll yen crossed have been in a parabolic bullish run for almost two months now. Am looking for an exhaustion into resistance around 85.50-86.00 to get short. Primary target levels are 82.50 and 81.00.
CL1! - Trade Levels for 11 Oct 2016Anticipated exhaustion levels for today are:-
Short from 52.55 & 53.10; Stop: 20 ticks, Target: >60 ticks.
Long from 50.38 & 49.70; Stop: 20 ticks, Target: >60 ticks.
AIR FRANCE Nice Risk Reward - Selloff ExhaustedThis is looking interesting. Not much to say: RSI divergences developing, with the stock down 45% since March. The selloff seems fairly exhaused. Nice risk reward, if you put a stop at 4.79 and target at 5.27
SHORT SPX: THE GRAPH SAYS IT ALL - 2145 IS RISK-FREE SELLING?SPX
1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks.
2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 (+0.55%) to 2206 OR 2) A sell-off will begin from here to 2147 - the market will test risk sentiment - if bulls win we will then move higher past 2194 previous highs, and the bull trend continues, but imo 80% most likely bears will win and we will break through 2147 and move to AT LEAST 1990.
3. IMO a daily and weekly close BELOW 2140 means selling is RISK-LESS as given this set up there will be no more bids until we hit 1990 (as shown by the price action and empty/bidless space).
- More aggressive sellers will sell here at 2182, risk-free sellers will wait to sell on the weekly close below 2140.
USDCAD big buy opportunityBig buy opportunity with many reasons to go long including a support level from June of last year. Many ways to play this. Conservative traders should wait for a trendline break and retest. Aggressive traders can start scaling in, or look for lower time frame entries. Can easily test back up to 1.3000 without even exiting the bear trend. Be aware that there are lower levels of support , for example at 1.2000. So take that into consideration. If you're using a wide stop and scaling in, be prepared to go that low. Otherwise use a tighter stop and look for second entries if stopped out. Reversals can give fantastic RR, and therefore several false starts are acceptable.
Exhaustion gap, wait to sellLooks like an exhaustion gap to me. Will wait for some recovery before selling.
Price and Indicator Analysis In this chart I used US 30 Year Treasuries weekly chart to explain how price and indicator analysis work.
I cover the basis of divergences, pullbacks, throwbacks, and exhaustion spikes.
Pullbacks (red) are seen when price and indicators such as RSI have diverged for a great length (wide divergence) or when you have weak divergence top comparing price and RSI. Throwbacks (blue) have the same effect, however show up when you have a bottom divergence or exhaustion spike.
If you notice wide divergence tops or bottoms more than often develop a stagnant price pullback/throwback. This is important to understand for timing purposes with instruments such as options.
When you have a weak major divergence top or bottom, there is usually a strong pullback/throwback occasionally surpassing the original price top / bottom.
Exhaustion spikes often happen after strong pullbacks and pullbacks that price sideways for a long duration. Exhaustion spikes are difficult to call bottoms or tops because they can lead to large price moves. To find an exhaustion bottom it is best to look on a much smaller time frame for strong angle divergences.
For TYX I am waiting to see a rapid price movement to the downside or a divergence signal with a lower bottom in price and a rising divergence indication.
USDCAD - Rally is Technically ExhaustedUSDCAD has had a long rally which started back in June last year. After nearly 3 quarters of run up the hill, the price action shows signs of an evident reversal.
How can reversal be expected at the highs ?
Studying the price action, we could see that the pair has had a very consistent uptrend for a long time with consistent pull backs and trend resumption but the recent candles from the week before on the daily have two large candles which are significantly larger than any candles prior to them. We can also observe that the candles following these two large candles are extremely weaker. With all this, we could see a parabolic price action formation which always indicates an exhaustion and a short term reversal.
What to expect ?
Expect the price to pull back and make a lower high or a double top before falling further back down to support.
TL Break w/ Vol. ExhaustionSee notes on chart.
3 week price change is 1.89%
PA could not form new highs all of AUG and PA is seeming to form a rounded top.
Price broke through support and and the trendline, but was pushed up by buyers today. wait on confirmation.
Buying DEC 130 Puts I think this gap will be filled before the end of the year.
