EOS to Correct Soon, Lock in ProfitsTaking fibs from the full price action (wick to wick) of its last major dump, EOS is now wicking down directly off the 618.
Unless BTC shows more bullish strength on smaller timeframes, which is currently waning, EOS will have a hard time clearing the 618 and running for the 786 and the prior price resistance up there.
The best offense being a good defense, consider locking in profits and protecting your capital if EOS gets a small pop back up to retest the 618, where a double-top would be highly probable unless BTC shows that further bullish momentum.
Exit
Verge USD Bittrex entry and exitVerge performs nicely in anticipation of positive news to be announced on the 16/4 or 17/4.
On a 60min chart we can see that the price almost touched to top of the 2nd square. Therefore, I believe a correction to the bottom of the 2nd square is immanent which constitutes a possible entry point around 0.069 USDT.
Afterwards, and only if Bitcoin does not fall any further, a run up to the top of the 3rd square seems plausible where one could exit its position around 0.115 USDT.
Keep in mind that the short-term market trend seems unclear, hence posing higher risks.
Qtum entry and exit strategyQtum seems to be forming a bullish pennant.
Entry point is at the bottom of the pennant, risky movement is buying at 3000 sat, with a stop loss under the next fib ret (2800sat).
More secure movement is to wait until support of pennant is confirmed, then buy around 3100 sats.
Balanced movement is to buy 50% of your allocation at 3000 sat with stop loss at 2800sat, wait for testing and bouncing from resistance, then buy the other 50% around 3100-3200 sat.
If qtum manges to touch the top of the pennant before the 16th of Feb (Start of Chinese new year) extra caution should be taken, profits should be taken around 3800 sats (25% to 50%), then buy back close to the support line.
Between 16th to 23th of Feb. pay attention to volume, if is enough to break the pennant top resistance then it is a good idea to prepare another order to buy more qtum, but wait for a retest of the previous resistance that then should became a support.
Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution EventNOTE:
I am not actually in a short position as I really dislike shorting bitcoin at times like this.
It is a risky maneuver especially since Bitcoin often rallies hard to the surprise of many.
I have just sold all my Bitcoin holdings which I have held since earlier this year.
2017 has been an amazing rally for Bitcoin with almost 100x growth.
With the opening of futures markets and the continuing drama among the bitcoin community filled with uncertainty about the identity of Bitcoin, it appears a Wyckoff Distribution Event has been engineered by the new and incoming large interests.
This certainly does not spell the end of Bitcoin, but Bitcoin has a history of 90% crashes after 10,000% rallies.
It is hard to tell when and at what price Bitcoin will enter an Accumulation Event and reverse, but I will be sure to re-enter the market at that point.
For now, it seems that Bitcoin's long rally will come to an end, and this is a nice point of exit for those who have made substantial profits this year.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Here's to a great and prosperous 2018 for all!
Extra Note:
This analysis may very well fail if Bitcoin does not fall below the highlighted trading range again in the next couple of days!
₿itcoin to Bitcoin Cash Live Divergence Early IndicatorThe green with the blue fill is ₿itcoin's live price, The dark pink is BCH's dollar value and light pink being BCH/₿TC ratio.
I watch this price action closely so I can spot divergences on BCH's next rally, they generally track in the opposite direction ₿TC is dominating but when BCH is building up for a rally the price action begins to diverge prematurely temporarily tracking ₿TC's rally upwards opening up an easy to spot entry point. When they begin to diverge back to opposite movements BCH stops its price mirroring of ₿TC setting up your BCH exit point.
EXAMPLES
Showing price tracking to Bitcoin dominance then the divergence setting up a Bitcoin Cash entry
Showing current price movement
All of this should be used with your typical momentum indicators but it is an effective tool to watch in tandem.
Trading Breakouts & Planning ExitsBITFINEX:BTCUSD
Over the past week BTC seems to have been developing a few interesting trends and based on the current chart with a one day time-frame I want to discuss one of the most evident patterns that will be familiar to most and probably new to some.
In this case, we'll be talking about the triangle breakout which I believe to be in play at the moment, the last few legs before a potential breakout. For those unfamiliar with the term 'breakout', it is described as a stock price that moves outside a defined support or resistance level with increased volume. In most cases, a breakout trader would enter his/her long position after the price breaks above resistance or enters a short position after the price breaks below the previous clear support level. After the price trades beyond the threshold/barrier the volatility increases and prices will trend in favor of the direction of the breakout. In a lot of cases, trading breakouts is considered to be an important strategy because these points reveal themselves to be the starting points for major price trends. In this case, for the long run.
In the case of BTC we can see a triangle breakout that has been in play since the support level of $1800 during the month of July this year. A positive breakout then initiated with a slight reversal just before the beginning of the month of August. The price entered short term consolidation before the positive breakout that has resulted in so many happy traders who were lucky enough to buy in during the July dip. Even during the most recent dip when BTC retested $2900 levels, traders with long positions since July have remained profitable and I'm certain there's a few players who regretted jumping of the wagon when they got scared by dipping prices. Don't trade on impulse. I can't stress that enough. Quite a few folks have "gambler type" trading habits then wonder what is wrong with their trading strategy.
Regardless of the time frame, breakout trading is a really good tried and tested strategy that has proven itself over time. Whether you work on intraday, daily or weekly charts, the concepts are universal. When trading breakouts the most important factor to look out for would be the support and resistance levels that have been tested and retested. The more these areas are retested, the more valid and important these areas become.
Entry points on these trades will mostly be determined by said support and resistance levels. When the prices closes above a previous resistance level, a trader will choose to establish a bullish position & vice versa. Be careful of "fake outs." They mimick breakouts and tend to trap most young traders/investors trading on impulse. Wait for confirmation of the breakout. A candlestick breaking a little past your entry point doesn't always mean you're good to go. It could result in an end-of-day reversal that sees the price trend reverse. Very evident in our BTC chart.
Point (b) on the chart seems to be a repetition of point (a). In the past, we can see that at point (a) we experienced a short term break past the 0.786 retracement level before a resistance reversal which saw the price find support at the 0.618 retracement level and the bulls saw the price through to $5000. Based on the short lived bearish trend at point (a) tells us a lot of bearish traders were caught in the headlights when the price turned around and went for $5K all within the span of 6 days. If an investor acts too quickly or without valid confirmation there is no guarantee that prices will continue into new pre-defined territory.
Entry and ExitsThis should give us all an idea on when to buy or sell. Barring bad news from FDA
Every time it crosses the bullish trendline, it shoots back up for new highs. Every time it passes 70 on RSI, it shoots down again.
OMGBTC 4H CHART OMG MARKET CONDITIONSA week after our last analysis, OMGBTC pair, is still in range and overbought, however, rising triangle still formed, with possible entry levels on the chart.
A break bellow triangle should trigger Stop-loss and could lead to next resisatance zone near 0.00129
IMO, it is more likely a break bellow support rather than a break over resistance because of RSI bearish divergence. Market will tell.
WNZ
Get live updates and analysis of the cryptocurrency market: t.me
A Strategy for Market Entry and Exit - Part 3SUGARUSD:OANDA Weekly Chart
A-E are similar to A-C above.
F. This is another example of a DI becoming dominant in a pullback but for only a brief period of time. Notice how (A) gave a signal but that an exit was quickly signaled. After the pullback (B), then (C) gave a new entry signal to long side for many weeks before TRIX signaled a potential cover of the short.
G. Is another example of the action similar to (F).
NOTE: These types of actions work best when the ADX is above 20 or when it is trending up.
SUGARUSD:OANDA Daily Chart
More examples of the same concepts. However, this one provides good insight into a strong trend and how the TRIX, in conjunction with the DMI, will keep you in a market longer. And, when an exit is signaled, how to re-enter if the DMI indicates the trend is still intact.
A Strategy for Market Entry and Exit - Part 2Part 1 can be found here:
Key Tenants
DMI is used as a triggering mechanism to establish support->resistance or resistance->support lines
TRIX used to identify targets to exit and re-enter and on-going trend (if the DMI indicates a down trend, the a negative cross of TRIX over HMA would indicate a level to short
Divergence can happen in both DMI and TRIX to indicate a weakening trend. With the TRIX, it can be a negative divergence where price makes new lows but TRIX makes higher lows or positive divergence where price is making a new low but TRIX is making lower lows in a blow-off fashion.
Stoch indicates overbought/sold conditions with potential leading trigger on trade. Can leverage mid-point levels as trade continuation
SUGARUSD:OANDA as an example reference 4hr chart above
A. This is the period where the -DI crossed up over the +DI signaling that the trend was turning down. For Wilder, the low on this day would be the extreme point and you would enter a short position once price moved below it. A stop would be placed at the high of the same day as the cross. I’m looking at this more from the point of using the closing price instead of the high or low. If the next day closed below this price, then I would enter a short position at that close. At this point, you can use whatever trailing stop strategy you currently used to exit should price move contrary to your position
B. This is the day that the +DI crossed up over the -DI signaling a possible buy. However, price did not close above this line before the ADX (green line on the DMI) dropped below both DI’s and eventually 20. Once this happens, a trend following indicator should not be used and signals that happen now I don’t act on. What has been suggested is that during this time, look for patterns in price and watch for price to breakout of this pattern.
C. -DI again crosses up over +DI and with price closing below this line, a signal to enter short again is given
1. This is the first signal after (A) that indicates a correction may be happening. Once the TRIX crosses up over the HMA, that period’s close is used as the line to determine if the trade will be closed. If price closes above this line, then exit the trade. This is the case and the short position would have been exited
2. Because the trend is still down as indicated by the -DI being dominant, when the TRIX crosses down over the HMA, the close for that period is used to enter another short position.
3. Again, a signal is given to cover the short but in this case, price did not close over this close so the trade would not have been exited even though many periods went by
4. This time, the signal was hit to cover the short and again, due to the trend being down (-DI dominant), the signal was again triggered to re-enter a short position
5. Exit signal given and short was covered
6. This time, the sell signal to re-enter was not hit and price eventually entered a period of consolidation signaled by the ADX dropping below both DI’s and 20
7. NOTE: This is a important part of DMI/ADX that I use and will keep you out of a lot of churn in markets: When ADX drops below both DI’s and/or below 20, don’t use a trend following indicator to take trades. An option is to look for a price pattern (a channel, flag, a triangle, maybe a trend line) for price to consolidate into and then break out of. This consolidation should last for at least 5-7 periods or longer. Use the TRIX to potentially give a signal as to the direction of the breakout. In this case, the breakout was to the down side.
Between (B) and (C), you see a pattern that happens in the DMI where there is a pullback. In these cases, one of the DI’s can become dominant for a briefly.
Pre Marlet Euro jumps to 5½-month high after exit pollsHow influential will the French election be on markets? How influential will the French election be on markets?
8 Hours Ago | 02:29
The euro reached a five-and-a-half month high against the dollar when markets opened Sunday evening as exit polls in the French presidential election indicated a victory for centrist Macron.
The single currency jumped to $1.09395 in early trade after having closed at $1.0723, according to Reuters data. This was a 2 percent jump on the day.
This comes after exit polls showed the independent candidate Emmanuel Macron gathered most of the votes in the first round of the French election. The same polls indicated that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen placed second in the first vote
XAUUSD, we exited trade and waiting for evidence at zoneAs mentioned last week we were waiting for a bearish evidence to exit our trade and this is what we did when we saw the price action on june 16th.
For those who entered the trade on may 30th, it s a nice 5:1 profit
As for now watch out for bearish evidence and a potential move to the downside from this major zone.
Beware of the Brexit, british Referendum (on EU exit) is scheduled later this week (23rd-24th June) and regardless of the outcome, you should be prepared for dramatic reaction in all markets.
Happy Trading
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