ECB speeches, Macron, and FOMC stir EUR/USD A high number of European Central Bank (ECB) officials are making public speeches in the 24 before the Fed rate decision this week Wednesday that could help or hinder the EUR/USD.
Also, thrown in the mix now is French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for a snap local election after the results of the EU Parliament elections, adding to market uncertainty.
The EURUSD has extended to a 5-week low. 1.0700 could be the next target for the bears as the price has now moved into a swing area between 1.0718 and 1.0750.
Perhaps the most important speeches will come from Luis de Guindos (Vice-President of the ECB), Philip R. Lane (ECB Executive Board member), and Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board).
Import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts direct to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance.
Last week, the EU became the fourth Western economy to reduce its lending rate, announcing progress in tackling inflation. It lowered its main interest rate from a record high of 4% to 3.75%. Katherine Neiss, chief European economist at Prudential Investment Management, expressed "reasonable confidence" that the ECB would further cut rates over the summer or autumn, potentially bringing EU rates to 3.5% or lower by year-end. Investors will be closely analyzing the upcoming ECB speeches for any hints that support this prediction.
F-EUR
EUR/USD Chart Analysis with Gap ConsiderationEUR/USD 4-Hour and 1D Chart Analysis with Gap Consideration
Trend Analysis:
- The 4-hour chart shows a clear downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
- The recent price action has been moving downward, suggesting continued selling pressure.
Gap Analysis:
- The chart indicates a potential gap in the price action, which typically occurs when there is a significant price movement between trading sessions.
- Gaps often act as strong support or resistance levels, and prices tend to move back to "fill" the gap over time.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Support Level: 1.0730, which is close to the current price and could provide some short-term support.
- Next Support Level: 1.0700, which is a psychological level and has acted as support in the past.
- Immediate Resistance Level: 1.0800, which is a recent high and could act as a barrier to upward movement.
- Next Resistance Level: 1.0850, which is another key resistance level that was previously support.
Technical Indicators:
- The bearish candlesticks suggest continued downward pressure.
- There are no immediate signs of a reversal in the price action, indicating that the downtrend may continue.
Direction Preference:
Given the current bearish trend and the lack of reversal signals, the preferred direction for EUR/USD FX:EURUSD in the short term is bearish. The price is likely to continue moving lower towards the support levels of 1.0730 and 1.0700.
Gap Consideration:
- If there is a gap in the price action, watch for a potential move to fill the gap. This could temporarily reverse the trend, but the overall bearish momentum suggests that the gap may not hold for long.
- Monitor the price action closely if it approaches the gap area. A fill of the gap followed by continued bearish momentum could provide a good shorting opportunity.
Conclusion:
The EUR/USD 4-hour chart indicates a bearish trend with continued downward momentum. It is advisable to consider short positions, targeting the support levels at 1.0730 and 1.0700. However, keep an eye on any gaps in the price action as they may provide short-term support or resistance and a potential reversal area. The bearish trend remains the preferred direction, but gaps should be closely monitored for any significant impact on the price movement.
Trading Signal For EURUSD Trading Setup:
There is a Trading Signal to Sell in EURUSD Forex Signal (1h)Currency Pair.
Traders can open their Sell Trades NOW
⬇️Sell Now or Sell on 1.0759
⭕️SL@ 1.0786
🔵TP1@ 1.0666
🔵TP2@ 1.0624
🔵TP3@ 1.0581
What are these signals based on?
Classical Technical Analysis
Price Action Candlesticks Fibonacci
RSI, Moving Average , Ichimoku , Bollinger Bands
Risk Warning
Trading Forex, CFDs, Crypto, Futures, and Stocks involve a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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EURUSD The new Bearish Leg has started.On our last analysis EURUSD analysis (June 04, see chart below) we mentioned that it was a do-or-die moment for a rejection as it had marginally broken above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down:
As you can see the price did close all subsequent candles below the top and inside the pattern, hence confirming the rejection bias and that the downtrend was still intact. The last two strong bearish days, suggest that the new Bearish Leg has started, especially since yesterday's 1D candle closed below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in a month (since May 10).
Our Target remains 1.06040 (Support 1), which is still a 'good case scenario' for the bearish event as it is above the % drop of the weakest Bearish Leg, the one right before the current (at -3.45%). Ideally, we expect to see the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) being the Resistance throughout the whole Leg.
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Bearish reverse off 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/CAD is rising towards the pivot and could potentially reverse to the support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.48381
1st Support: 1.47755
1st Resistance: 1.49088
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 1.07973
1st Support: 1.07298
1st Resistance: 1.08394
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURO - Price can make small move up and then continue fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price entered to rising channel, where firstly it broke support level, which coincided with support area.
Then, in a short time, price rose higher than $1.0670 level, breaking it again and then made correction.
After this, EUR continued to move up in channel and reached $1.0790 level, which soon broke too and exited from channel.
Next, price started to trades in flat, where it reached two times top part and the last time in made downward impulse.
Price exited from flat and broke $1.0790 level, but recently it turned around and start to move up.
Possibly, Euro can rise to almost resistance level and then continue to decline to $1.0670 support level.
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EURCAD:Key Level and French Election ImpactHello Traders,
In today's trading session, we're closely monitoring EUR/CAD for a potential selling opportunity around the 1.48100 zone. The pair had been in an uptrend but recently broke out of it, entering a correction phase. It is now approaching the 1.48100 area, which acts as a key support and resistance zone.
On the fundamental side, the recent EU parliamentary elections in France resulted in a significant majority for a far-right candidate, who has historically advocated for France to leave the EU. This development has weakened the EUR. Moreover, President Macron's decision to call for an early French election has heightened political instability, posing additional risks to the EUR.
Stay vigilant and trade safe,
Joe
EURCHF:Key Level and Political RisksHello Traders,
In today's trading session, we're closely monitoring EUR/CHF for a potential selling opportunity around the 0.96500 zone. The pair had been in an uptrend but recently broke out of it and is now in a correction phase. It is approaching the 0.96500 area, which serves as both a support and resistance level.
Adding to the EUR's challenges, the recent EU parliamentary elections in France resulted in a significant majority for a far-right candidate, historically known for advocating France's exit from the EU. This outcome is detrimental to the EUR. Additionally, President Macron has called for an early French election, which exacerbates political instability and poses further risks to the EUR.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD - 1H SellThe EURUSD chart indicates a potential bearish movement. The recent price action suggests that the pair is experiencing a weakening of the bullish momentum. After reaching a recent peak, the price is showing signs of a downward trend, indicating a possible decline towards the highlighted support zone around 1.08400.
The price action around this level is crucial; if the support zone fails to hold, we could see a continuation of the downtrend. This setup aligns with the current market sentiment, pointing towards further selling pressure. Traders should watch for confirmations around the support zone to determine the next move.
Heading into overlap resistance, could it reverse from here?EUR/USD is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.07943
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.08406
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.07299
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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EURUSD 9/6/24Starting things off with euro to the USD this pair has finally shifted bearish into the higher time for a narrative we have mentioned so many times over the last fortnight. This means for us this week we are predominantly focusing on bearish movements, as it stands we have an nfp range this is the overall range responsible for shifting us bearish, Within the 4 hour time frame we still have no low of this range.
Because of this we are still waiting for this range to form properly before we begin to interpret the appropriate point to enter. But as always we have an idea of what we would like to see which is the following. A price pulling back after either liquidating the nearest low or forming a low above this point, Then pulling back to the area of unmitigated supply that we have highlighted above this. for us this is the ideal area to sell from it sits above 50 percent of this range and it also is the area responsible for breaking our major structural point down.
As we head into this week we are going to be waiting for this range to form properly before we begin to formulate sell or buy setups.
What we have shown and spoke about here is our overall main idea so we will wait for this to start playing out and give the principal some fluidity.
Wishing you all the best trading week and remember to reprice trade with appropriate risk and always use a stop loss.
EURAUD: Confirmed Bullish Reversal?! 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
EURAUD formed a huge inverted head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame.
With the release of the yesterday's fundamentals, the price bounced and violated
the neckline of the pattern.
Growth may continue next week.
Next resistance - 1.6475
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Euro can rebound from support level and start to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price a not long time ago started to decline inside the downward channel, where it rebounded from the support line and rose to the resistance line, after which continued to decline near this line. In a short time, EUR fell to a support level and even made a fake breakout of it, after which turned around and made a strong upward impulse, exiting from the downward channel. Then price almost reached the resistance level, turned around, and fell lower 1.0810 level, breaking it. But then, EURUSD turned around and started to grow inside an upward pennant, where it broke the support level again and later the resistance level too, reaching the resistance line of the pennant. After this, the price bounced down, breaking the 1.0890 level, which coincided with the seller zone again. But then, the price tried to back up and even made a fake breakout of this level, after which made impulse down, exiting from the pennant. Now, I think that the Euro can decline to a support level and then start to grow, therefore I set my target at 1.0870 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD (Bullish Side...)EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is trading under bullish pressure towards 1.0950, provided it remains above 1.0872. A correction down to 1.0861 is possible before resuming the bullish trend. However, stability below 1.0861 could support a decline towards 1.0810 and 1.0792.
Pivot Price: 1.0872
Resistance Levels: 1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1070
Support Levels: 1.0830, 1.0792, 1.0731
The price is expected to oscillate between the support at 1.0861 and the resistance at 1.0950.
US Dollar Declines Ahead of May Employment Report
Early Friday, the US dollar weakened against most of its major trading partners, except for an improvement against the Canadian dollar. Investors are now focused on the upcoming May employment report, set for release at 8:30 am ET.
Expectations for the report include a rise in nonfarm payrolls by 185,000, an unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.9%, and a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings.
EUR/USD Loses Momentum as Market Awaits Key US Economic DataThe EUR/USD pair experienced a setback on Tuesday after reaching its highest level since late March, climbing above 1.0900 before closing the day in negative territory. The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests a lack of bullish momentum as attention shifts to upcoming macroeconomic data releases from the United States.
Technical Analysis Overview
In the lower timeframes, particularly on the H1 chart, EUR/USD shows a harmonic movement within an uptrend, characterized by swing highs and lower highs. Pullbacks have been consistently supported at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potentially strong base for a new bullish impulse. This technical setup suggests that a positive reaction to upcoming economic news could trigger a fresh upward movement.
Key Economic Data Releases
The focus is now on two critical economic indicators from the US: the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI for May. These releases are expected to provide significant insights into the state of the US economy and influence the EUR/USD pair's trajectory.
1. ADP Employment Change: Market expectations are for a rise of 173,000 in private sector employment for May. This report is an important gauge of the labor market's health and can affect market perceptions of the Federal Reserve's future policy moves.
2. ISM Services PMI: The ISM Services PMI is projected to recover to a reading above 50, indicating expansion, with expectations set at 50.5 for May, up from April's 49.4. A reading above 50 suggests growth in the services sector, which is crucial for overall economic performance.
Potential Market Reactions
The EUR/USD pair's movements will be significantly influenced by these data releases. Stronger-than-expected figures could bolster the US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, if the data disappoints, it could weaken the USD, providing a potential boost to the EUR/USD pair.
Conclusion
Currently, the EUR/USD pair displays a lack of sustained bullish momentum, but the upcoming US economic data could serve as a catalyst for change. Traders should pay close attention to the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI releases, as they will offer crucial insights into the health of the US economy and guide expectations for future monetary policy. The technical outlook on the lower timeframes indicates a potential for a bullish impulse, provided that the economic data supports such a move. The EUR/USD pair remains at a pivotal point, with the direction likely to be shaped by the forthcoming macroeconomic indicators.
EURNZD to find sellers at market?EURNZD - 24h expiry
Our short term bias remains negative.
Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
20 4hour EMA is at 1.7597.
We look for a temporary move higher.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
We look to Sell at 1.7598 (stop at 1.7648)
Our profit targets will be 1.7478 and 1.7458
Resistance: 1.7600 / 1.7650 / 1.7680
Support: 1.7571 / 1.7525 / 1.7500
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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EURUSD is approaching a significant support areaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.08200 zone, EURUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURNZD is approaching a significant resistance area.Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURNZD for a selling opportunity around 1.76100 zone, EURNZD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.76100 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.