Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could potentially bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.07298
1st Support: 1.06919
1st Resistance: 1.08100
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F-EUR
EURUSD 6-10 May 2024 W19 Weekly AnalysisThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 6-10 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
On Friday, the EUR/USD surged to reach a new high for the week, surpassing recent congestion levels. This uptick followed a significant shortfall in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data regarding labor and wages. The disappointing figures revived expectations across the market for a quicker pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
Price tapped into a Weekly demand zone that is currently providing Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone which initiated the Bearish iBOS Pullback Phase.
As expected last week with the probability of a deep pullback, price reached the Daily Supply. With that deep Pullback, there is a HP that we can continue the Bearish INT Structure with expectation to target the Weak INT Low and possibly the Weak Swing Low.
More development required on LTF to show signs of Bearish Structure to validate the expectations.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
Economic Events for the Week
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support, could it bounce?EUR/USD is falling toward the support level, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.07341
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.06753
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 88% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.08082
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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EURUSD 5/5/24Starting off the week with euro to the US dollar this pair has played bearish across the high timeframes for a while now. On the 4 hour chart here I'm looking for price to pull back into the discount zone that was given by the bullish range that broke our high last week this tells us that we are due another push to the upside but overall the higher time frame structures are bearish.
Keeping this in mind if we do not pull back and we shift above our newly created high I will expect price to fall from the red area highlighted above, Personally I would prefer to see price pull back down below the 50 of the newly created range bringing us into the 4 hour POI liquidating the low and ultimately pushing back up above the newly created high allowing us to buy this last up move before the higher time frame begins to sell price off again.
News this week is relatively low so I'm not expecting anything crazy volatile but I do expect us to expand to the upside before we start to drop lower.
Please note the key levels that we have marked on our chart here are these points I'll be looking to buy from.
Remember to follow price action read what price is showing you and trade your plan wishing you all a successful trading week.
Preparing for FOMC Impact on EUR/USD: Insights and AnalysisAs we approach the FOMC meeting later today, there is anticipation of a potential bullish movement of the EUR against the USD, accompanied by a retest of the 50% Fibonacci level on the short timeframe and an uptick in value. Indicators suggest oversold conditions.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, it is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, acknowledging persistent inflation and robust economic indicators. Despite not updating its macroeconomic projections until June, the Fed is likely to highlight recent deteriorations in the inflation outlook.
Chair Powell's press conference will be pivotal, with the potential to adjust earlier guidance on easing, indicating a more cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments. Market expectations have shifted, significantly reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in the near future and postponing the start of the easing cycle to September 2024.
We anticipate an increase in the EUR value today, with a cautious approach to setting the stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP) levels.
EURO - Price can start to decline to $1.0655 support levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price started to decline inside falling channel, where it soon broke $1.0870 level.
Price tried to back up, but failed and continued to decline to support line of falling channel.
Then price bounced up to almost resistance level, thereby exiting from channel, after which it some time traded close $1.0870 level.
Later Euro made downward impulse from resistance line lower than $1.0655 level, after which in a short time broke it again.
After this, EUR reached resistance line and soon broke it too, after which made retest and continues to grow.
Now, I think that Euro can make a small movement up and then it will decline to $1.0655 support level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
HelenP. I Euro will fall to trend line, breaking support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart, we can see how the price a not long time ago rebounded from support 2, which coincided with the support zone and declined to almsot trend line, and then it started to grow inside the upward channel. Inside the channel, EUR soon broke support 2 and rose almost to the resistance line of the channel, but then the price turned around and made a correction movement to the trend line. Euro some time traded near this line, which is the support line of the channel too, and later finally broke support 2 and continued to move up. Soon, the price reached support 1, which coincided with one more support zone, but at once rebounded and in a short time declined lower than the trend line to support 2, thereby exiting from the upward channel and breaking the trend line. But soon, the Euro turned around and made a strong impulse up to support 1, breaking the trend line again and recently EUR broke support 1 too. Just now, the price is declining, so, in my mind, the Euro will continue to fall to the trend line, thereby breaking the support level. For this case, I set my target at 1.0710 points, which coincided with the trend line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURGBP - Price can make small correction and then start riseHi guys, this is my overview for EURGBP, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price bounced from support level, which coincided with support area, and declined to support line of triangle.
GBP turned around and made strong upward impulse to resistance line, breaking $0.8610 and $0.8545 levels.
But then price started to decline and in a short time fell to $0.8545 level, breaking resistance level again.
Then GBP fell to support line of triangle and at once bounced up, thereby exiting from triangle pattern.
Also, price broke $0.8545 level and now it continues to rise, so, in my mind, British Pound can make correction move.
After this, price will turn around and start to move up to $0.8590 points.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
EURUSD is approaching the daily trendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.08000, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Sell EURCAD Ascending TriangleThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to the presence of an ascending triangle pattern.
Potential Short Trade :
Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support trendline of the triangle after confirmation. Ideally, this would be around 1.4710 or lower if the price continues to decline.
Target Levels:
1.4655: This represents the height of the triangle, measured from the apex (highest point) to the base (horizontal line), projected downwards from the breakout point.
1.4630: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: Once the entry point is confirmed, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the triangle, ideally with some buffer around 1.4732. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
After rebinding from resistance level, Euro can continue to fallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price a not long time ago started to move up inside an upward channel, where it at once rebounded from the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and made a downward movement. Euro a little more time traded between the 1.0650 level and later finally broke it and in a short time rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and even rose to the resistance line of the channel. But then, the EUR turned around and made a correction movement, breaking 1.0730 again, after which the price rose to this level and then made a downward impulse to the support level, thereby exiting from the upward channel. But then the price at once rebounded from the 1.0650 level and made impulse up to the resistance level, some time traded near and a few moments ago started to decline. In my opinion, the Euro can continue to decline to the 1.0650 support level. So, that's why my target is this level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD - Wait For The Impulse 📈Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EURUSD has been overall bullish short-term, trading within the rising wedge pattern in blue.
Currently, EURUSD is hovering around the lower bound of the wedge pattern.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support zone in blue.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURUSD - Updated Analysis (Bearish Bias)Hello hello,
I am anticipating TWO possible scenarios. For context, you would have to know ICT's Concepts, particularly Time & Price Theory, Price Delivery Continuum, and the PD Array Matrix. Sounds fancy shmancy, but it isn't, it's actually quite beautiful.
Anyway, the TWO scenarios are:
1. Price comes up into the RED circle area. We have a large inefficiency on lower timeframes. On the Weekly we see a Body Breaker and a New Month Opening Gap. After that, price displaces lower this Thursday or Friday as there is also NFP. What i'm looking for is price closing below the current SIBI that the Weekly candle is in.
2. Price does not come up to that area this week, then I am looking for a 3W Sibi to be created and traded into first before moving lower. But preferably, I would like to see that no Weekly candle closes above the current Weekly gap.
Please refer to my previous EURUSD analysis for more information on what I am looking for, and how I am looking for it.
- R2F
EURUSD 2 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI / US Jobless This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is mixed following the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's speech. The US dollar initially strengthened after the Fed, but then weakened as investors focused on the central bank's dovish comments. This could be positive for EURUSD, which climbed after the Fed meeting. However, caution is still warranted as Non-Farm Payroll data, a key US jobs report, is due on Friday, which could impact the dollar and EURUSD again.
The following news today will have some volatility before NFP tomorrow:
German Mfg PMI Final
Eurozone Mfg PMI Final
US Trade Balance
US Initial Jobless Claims
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
As the INT Structure turned Bearish, it signals that the Swig PB maybe over and we are currently Pro Swing.
After the Bearish iBOS we are expecting a PB which already reached the Refined 4H FLIP Zone.
Currently the Liquidity above the 4H Supply which makes it not a HP Zone for Shorts unless we have clear Bearish Structure formation on the 15m.
I Prefer the Sweep of Liq above the 4H Supply (CHoCH) before Shorts.
Also be mindful that the Strong INT High could be run in the situation of a complex Deeper Pullback Phase for the 4H Swing.
With FOMC Yesterday and NFP tomorrow, this is the behavior of price due to Investors positioning.
Note: Daily is ranging and 4H too 🤷♂️
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Shorts Phase B (HP)
Longs Phase C (LP)
2.
With the volatility of yesterday news, price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme.
No clear direction as we are back again to the same range we are in since Apr 23.
Shorts make sense, but no potential POI / Clear INT Structure to follow.
Also with the 4H Liquidity above the 15m Swing High, there is a HP that the 15m Swing will get run.
3.
After the Bearish BOS we expected a Pullback, which was initiated after the Bullish iBOS.
EURUSD - Time to trap the herd going long?As mentioned in my previous analysis on EURUSD, what I was looking for came to pass. The large swing move did not occur yet, so i'm anticipating one more spike up higher before we head to the downside.
I have a few things leaning towards my short bias:
1. Seasonal tendency for the USD is stronger. This is suspect for XXXUSD pairs to be going up.
2. May's monthly candle barely went lower in terms of Power of 3 manipulation, meaning i'm leaning more towards the manipulation being on the upside rather than downside.
3. DXY has my signature R2F Gap where I anticipate a reversal on EURUSD, and EURUSD has a nice area of inefficiency and a Breaker, which are both my favorite models.
4. Other EURUSD correlated assets are engineering Sellside Liquidity for later.
A long could be taken higher, but I will be stalking the short setup i've been waiting for. I was open to it being the recent spike lower, but I see now the market is trying to do a multiple switcheroo. This will likely be the last one.
So let's see what happens! Exciting times!
- R2F
EURUSD 1 May 2024 W18 - Intraday Analysis - US FOMC/Powell Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
A day the markets awaits loaded with high impact news events. Starting with US ADP, Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings and ending with Rate Decision and Powell speech.
Today's FOMC Statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech are eagerly anticipated by the market, as both have the potential to significantly influence the EUR/USD pair. The Dollar Index has advanced as investor focus shifts to these pivotal events. Should the FOMC statement or Powell's comments lean towards a more hawkish stance, indicating a preference for higher interest rates, it could bolster the US dollar and exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Conversely, if the statement or remarks lean towards a more dovish stance, suggesting a inclination towards lower interest rates, it could weaken the US dollar and generate some upward movement for the EUR/USD pair.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
No clear Demand zone available to initiate the INT Structure Pullback.
Price could continue bearish without Pullback as we are in the Swing Continuation Phase.
Expectation is set to continue bearish targeting the Weak Swing Low.
4.
With the recent INT Structure turning Bearish confirming the Swing Pullback Phase may had ended, the Swing Bearish Continuation Phase started targeting the Weak Swing Low.
Current 4H Supply (FLIP Zone) could provide an opportunity for Shorts after the Bearish iBOS inline with the Bearish Swing and Continuation Phase.
Also be mindful that today is loaded with high impact news which will have a high volatility.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
OF Bearish
2.
Swing continuing Bearish with Bearish BOS.
After a BOS we expect a pullback.
There is no HTF Zone that can be potential for the Swing Pullback Phase.
Will wait for INT Structure to turn Bullish to look for Longs. Otherwise i prefer Shorts from the 4H Supply as it aligns with the HTF Bearish Phase and targets.
3.
No Clear Demand to initiate the Swing Pullback.
Waiting for INT Structure formation.
Sell EURCAD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support level of the channel, ideally around 1.4660 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones:
1.4616: This represents the first level of support within the channel.
1.4588: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 1.4682. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Buy EURAUD Channel Breakout The EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to a recent upward breakout from a well-defined bullish channel pattern. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further gains in the coming hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) above the broken resistance level of the channel, ideally around 1.6300 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the previous resistance levels within the channel, now acting as potential support zones:
1.6402: This represents the first level of resistance within the channel.
1.6456: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 1.6290. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back downwards.
Thank you