Get started

F-XAU

Smart Money Positioned to SHORT Gold - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Gold (GC) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials around max short of last 2 years = bearish. True Seasonal: Seasonal down to October. Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not yet confirmed) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Downside Ahead for Gold - COT Strategy SellDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Gold (GC) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Extreme Positioning: Most short Commercials have been since January 2021. Large specs longest they have been since March 2020. OI Analysis: Price upward consolidation since April has seen Commercials heavily selling = bearish. Large Specs at longest positioning since March 2020 = bearish. Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for gold to go down in September Spread: Bearish spread divergence COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals. Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
2
GOLD Pre\Post Analysis | Closing w\ $648.00 USD Profit TodayI do believe gold is going to continue to buy. As much as I know traders are interested in selling at the high, I don't think it is that probable to take that trade and the more you think of every trade in terms of probability, it saves you from taking some really shit trades, honestly. Would you take a bet that you are either A. unsure you can win or B. know you will lose? Of course not, so why is it you take trades like that? Take smarter trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Brandon_evo4
Gold did nothing, So I slept + I had a headacheThe best thing about being a full time trader is being able to do what I want when I want and as much as I am in pain as I type this, Just knowing that I don't have to answer to anyone reduces that pain 10 fold for me, honest. I don't have to request any leave, I don't have to report to anyone. I can just go. Yeah sure making money is great but what good is it if it costs you your peace. I'd openly accept making 10 times less than what I make now in exchange for my peace. Yeah you read that right.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Brandon_evo4
US30 Chaos and How to deal with itAs I would have mentioned within the last video I posted I was actually expecting a pullback - well it turned out to be a full on retracement and that forced me to stop trading because the momentum literally went against what I was expecting. This is to show how we can use probability, timing and momentum to make informed decisions on what trades we should and shouldn't take. Hope you have a good day today Look out for the next video I am going to post on GOLD
FX:US30
by Brandon_evo4
GOLD at a Tipping Point: Rally or Reversal?Comprehensive Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) Across the 1-hour, 15-minute, and 4-hour charts, the current market structure of Gold against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) reveals a critical juncture, with several key technical patterns and liquidity zones influencing potential price movements. --- 1. Overall Market Structure: Large Ascending Channel (4-Hour Chart) - Channel Formation: The price has been trending within a **large Ascending Channel** since early May, with well-defined higher highs and higher lows. This channel serves as the primary structure guiding the market’s long-term movement. - Upper and Lower Boundaries: The upper boundary near 2474.774 (Daily LQZ) and the lower boundary near 2355.819 (Daily LQZ) are critical levels. The price is currently closer to the channel's upper half, indicating potential room for further upside but also a heightened risk of reversal. 2. Intermediate Market Structure: Recent Ascending Channel Breakdown (1-Hour & 4-Hour Charts) - Smaller Ascending Channel: On the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, a smaller Ascending Channel had formed recently, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, this channel experienced a breakdown, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. - Retest and Flag Formation: Following the breakdown, the price formed a flag pattern. This typically signals consolidation before continuation in the direction of the previous trend (which was down, post-breakdown). The resolution of this flag is crucial for the next significant move. --- 3. Liquidity Zones (LQZs): Key Decision Points - 1-Hour LQZ at 2441.637: A significant resistance level that the price is currently hovering near. Its strength has been tested, and it could either cap the current move or be breached if buying pressure increases. - 4-Hour LQZ at 2458.954: Positioned slightly above the current price, this is another critical resistance zone, closely aligned with the broader channel's upper resistance area. - Daily LQZ at 2474.774: This is a major resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel. If reached, it could signal an important inflection point. - Support at 2402.417 (1HR) and 2355.819 (Daily): These are key levels of support that could come into play if the price fails to break higher and instead moves downward. --- 4. Volume Analysis: Gauging Momentum** - Recent Volume Trends: Across the charts, volume has shown signs of moderation, particularly during the formation of the flag pattern. This suggests a potential lack of conviction among market participants, which could lead to a volatile breakout or breakdown. - Volume at Key Levels: It will be essential to monitor volume closely at critical LQZs and the flag pattern boundaries. A breakout with strong volume could confirm the direction, while a low-volume move might indicate a false breakout or temporary move. --- 5. Mass Psychology and Market Sentiment - Herd Behavior: The market is at a psychological tipping point. If a breakout from the flag pattern occurs, it could trigger a strong collective buying response, driving the price higher toward the 4HR and Daily LQZs. Conversely, a failure could lead to a rapid sell-off as participants rush to exit. - Overextension and Exhaustion: The proximity to significant resistance levels increases the risk of overextension. If the price approaches the Daily LQZ at 2474.774, traders should be cautious of a potential reversal due to exhaustion of the bullish trend. --- 6. Potential Scenarios and Strategic Considerations - Bullish Scenario: - Breakout Above Flag: A confirmed breakout above the flag pattern, supported by strong volume, could push the price towards the 4HR LQZ (2458.954) and potentially the Daily LQZ (2474.774). - Continuation Within the Larger Channel: If the price clears the 4HR LQZ, it could target the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel, aligning with the Daily LQZ at 2474.774. - Bearish Scenario:** - Breakdown from Flag: A breakdown from the flag, especially with increasing volume, could signal a short-term bearish move, targeting support levels at 2402.417 (1HR LQZ) and 2355.819 (Daily LQZ). - Rejection at 1HR LQZ (2441.637): If the price fails to break the 1HR LQZ convincingly, it could lead to a retest of lower support levels, indicating a potential retracement within the larger channel. - Neutral/Baseline Strategy: - Wait for Confirmation: Traders might consider waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown from the flag pattern and observe how the price reacts at the nearest LQZs. This approach reduces the risk of being caught in a false move. - Risk Management: Stops should be placed strategically around the flag pattern’s boundaries or key LQZs to protect against adverse moves. --- Conclusion: The XAU/USD pair is currently at a crucial inflection point. The broader market structure, combined with recent developments in the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, suggests that the next significant move could set the tone for the short to medium term. Close attention should be paid to the flag pattern, volume behavior, and the reaction at key liquidity zones, particularly the 1HR and 4HR LQZs. A breakout could lead to a test of the upper boundaries of the larger channel, while a breakdown might see the price revisiting lower support levels within the channel. This is a classic setup where waiting for confirmation before entering a position could offer a strategic advantage, allowing for more informed and controlled trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
1
Chaos and Confusion within Gold Today!I think it makes more sense to walk away from gold at this time as it isn't very clear about what it is attempting to do. Have you ever felt like the market doesn't know what it wants to do? Well if that is the case and the market doesn't know, how the F could you know? Come on, not everyday requires you to place a trade. This is a test most traders will surely fail, because they are addicted to the industry, you have to gain some kind of control over yourself and force yourself to walk away.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Brandon_evo4
+$374.00 on Gold Call Today What is up traders, Brandon here - Absolutely lovely call on Gold this morning. Below are the links to all the minds that I would have posted before and after the trade itself was taken> www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com I like showing all the receipts because this gives clarity, you get a good idea of before and after. I hope you understood where I was coming from with this one. Have a great rest of your day - see you guys soon =)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Brandon_evo4
Gold Absolutely Destroys Sellers, Simultaneously fools BuyersWhat's up guys, I hope this message finds you well. It appears that gold did actually play out almost exactly like I wanted it to and surprisingly I was right. Here is the link to the original analysis - www.tradingview.com The good thing about this is that due to it being a news event I wouldn't have been able to engage anyway until maybe after the event but had I engaged I would have absolutely been right. Also You'd realize that I don't just call out buy here or sell there without an explanation. I do this for 2 reasons. 1. I believe in order for you to get better you need to be able to explain what it is you think you understand to others in a way that helps them understand And 2. If as a trader you don't like over-explaining\analyzing things.. I got some bad news for you buddy, this may not be the correct industry for you. You have to be able to explain why you are taking specific trades even if it just to explain it to yourself. If you cannot do that then taking the trade is likely ill-advised. Hope you enjoy this one, have a good rest of your day, see you guys soon!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Brandon_evo4
7
R2F Weekly Analysis - 1st June 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it! If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss as you will miss how I analyse the market: We are at a new month, the month of June. I am still monitoring how the DXY acts this month to validate the monthly SIBI I've been talking about to turn into an iFVG. However, on the lower timeframes it looks very much like lower prices are in the making, which would be bullish for XXXUSD pairs and vice versa for USDXXX pairs. - R2F
by Road_2_Funded
R2F Weekly Analysis - 26th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it! If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss as you will miss how I analyse the market. Currently, the sentiment is still the same as last week's analysis. I am mostly keen to see how this monthly closes on the DXY. If we can close above the nearest Monthly gap and create new Weekly gaps higher, I would be keen to hunt for a short on XXXUSD pairs and longs on USDXXX pairs. If we do expand higher before the month is over, via a news event or convincing manipulation, then I would also be interested in the same as sooner or later I am anticipating a bullish USD. - R2F
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Road_2_Funded
R2F Weekly Analysis - 19th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it! If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss as you will miss how I analyse the market, the TLDR is that my bullish Dollar bias is on hold until I can see May's candle closes. However, I am slightly leaning for a possibly bearish Dollar to the Yearly Bisi below, but as we know things can change in an instant as this year is also election year in the USA. All my analysis of other pairs revolve around my opinion of the DXY. Hit me up if you have any analysis request or just want to learn how to do all of this independently by yourself. - R2F
by Road_2_Funded