BUY TRADE ON XAUUSDPotential Trade Setup on XAUUSD
The price broke out of a strong resistance zone and a long-used Trendline but yet to retest the broken structure.
The price is developing, and I am waiting for a retest of the previously broken resistance and used as support before I look for a LONG trade.
You may find more details in the chart!
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F-XAU
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) wedge BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2427, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2403
2nd Support – 2388
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2440. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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Thank you.
Could Gold reverse from here?The price is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 61.8% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 2,432.17
1st Support: 2,402.82
1st Resistance: 2,451.17
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GOLD at a Tipping Point: Rally or Reversal?Comprehensive Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar)
Across the 1-hour, 15-minute, and 4-hour charts, the current market structure of Gold against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) reveals a critical juncture, with several key technical patterns and liquidity zones influencing potential price movements.
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1. Overall Market Structure: Large Ascending Channel (4-Hour Chart)
- Channel Formation: The price has been trending within a **large Ascending Channel** since early May, with well-defined higher highs and higher lows. This channel serves as the primary structure guiding the market’s long-term movement.
- Upper and Lower Boundaries: The upper boundary near 2474.774 (Daily LQZ) and the lower boundary near 2355.819 (Daily LQZ) are critical levels. The price is currently closer to the channel's upper half, indicating potential room for further upside but also a heightened risk of reversal.
2. Intermediate Market Structure: Recent Ascending Channel Breakdown (1-Hour & 4-Hour Charts)
- Smaller Ascending Channel: On the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, a smaller Ascending Channel had formed recently, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, this channel experienced a breakdown, indicating a shift in short-term momentum.
- Retest and Flag Formation: Following the breakdown, the price formed a flag pattern. This typically signals consolidation before continuation in the direction of the previous trend (which was down, post-breakdown). The resolution of this flag is crucial for the next significant move.
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3. Liquidity Zones (LQZs): Key Decision Points
- 1-Hour LQZ at 2441.637: A significant resistance level that the price is currently hovering near. Its strength has been tested, and it could either cap the current move or be breached if buying pressure increases.
- 4-Hour LQZ at 2458.954: Positioned slightly above the current price, this is another critical resistance zone, closely aligned with the broader channel's upper resistance area.
- Daily LQZ at 2474.774: This is a major resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel. If reached, it could signal an important inflection point.
- Support at 2402.417 (1HR) and 2355.819 (Daily): These are key levels of support that could come into play if the price fails to break higher and instead moves downward.
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4. Volume Analysis: Gauging Momentum**
- Recent Volume Trends: Across the charts, volume has shown signs of moderation, particularly during the formation of the flag pattern. This suggests a potential lack of conviction among market participants, which could lead to a volatile breakout or breakdown.
- Volume at Key Levels: It will be essential to monitor volume closely at critical LQZs and the flag pattern boundaries. A breakout with strong volume could confirm the direction, while a low-volume move might indicate a false breakout or temporary move.
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5. Mass Psychology and Market Sentiment
- Herd Behavior: The market is at a psychological tipping point. If a breakout from the flag pattern occurs, it could trigger a strong collective buying response, driving the price higher toward the 4HR and Daily LQZs. Conversely, a failure could lead to a rapid sell-off as participants rush to exit.
- Overextension and Exhaustion: The proximity to significant resistance levels increases the risk of overextension. If the price approaches the Daily LQZ at 2474.774, traders should be cautious of a potential reversal due to exhaustion of the bullish trend.
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6. Potential Scenarios and Strategic Considerations
- Bullish Scenario:
- Breakout Above Flag: A confirmed breakout above the flag pattern, supported by strong volume, could push the price towards the 4HR LQZ (2458.954) and potentially the Daily LQZ (2474.774).
- Continuation Within the Larger Channel: If the price clears the 4HR LQZ, it could target the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel, aligning with the Daily LQZ at 2474.774.
- Bearish Scenario:**
- Breakdown from Flag: A breakdown from the flag, especially with increasing volume, could signal a short-term bearish move, targeting support levels at 2402.417 (1HR LQZ) and 2355.819 (Daily LQZ).
- Rejection at 1HR LQZ (2441.637): If the price fails to break the 1HR LQZ convincingly, it could lead to a retest of lower support levels, indicating a potential retracement within the larger channel.
- Neutral/Baseline Strategy:
- Wait for Confirmation: Traders might consider waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown from the flag pattern and observe how the price reacts at the nearest LQZs. This approach reduces the risk of being caught in a false move.
- Risk Management: Stops should be placed strategically around the flag pattern’s boundaries or key LQZs to protect against adverse moves.
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Conclusion:
The XAU/USD pair is currently at a crucial inflection point. The broader market structure, combined with recent developments in the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, suggests that the next significant move could set the tone for the short to medium term. Close attention should be paid to the flag pattern, volume behavior, and the reaction at key liquidity zones, particularly the 1HR and 4HR LQZs. A breakout could lead to a test of the upper boundaries of the larger channel, while a breakdown might see the price revisiting lower support levels within the channel.
This is a classic setup where waiting for confirmation before entering a position could offer a strategic advantage, allowing for more informed and controlled trading decisions.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar | Short Position | 15mfor time being, we can take 15m sell position when there is a clear confirmation
15m : Took local inducement with 15m bearish confirmation
1m : OF mitigated with bearish confirmation , took bearish market order entry
Target :
15m sell-side lq spot
15m sell-side valid inducement point
Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) Channel BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2394, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2470
2nd Support – 2500
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2362. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
XAUUSD 11/8/24Following up on gold this week, we have an area of demand relatively close to the current price action, near where it ended last week. We believe this area could be tested, and if so, we’ll look for either a decisive push back up or a failure. We are strongly bullish on gold and believe it is likely to run higher, aligning with the institutional liquidity moving in the form of trendline liquidity. We could see a sell-off near the high to encourage sellers to place their stops above it. Overall, we expect the high to be breached. If we don’t reach this high and instead pull back lower, we will look for buying opportunities near the lower end of the overall range, just below the low established on Thursday, the 25th. This level holds significant liquidity, so it could be targeted. Our main focus is for the price to shift into the bullish narrative that we recognize on the higher time frame. We’re simply waiting for the price to show us what it wants to do.
Trade your plan, follow your risk management, and always trade based on what price shows you, not on what you want it to do.
GOLD 4H / Bullish Volume...Gold Futures Rise as Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Technical Analysis: Gold
Current Outlook: Stabilization above 2428 means an uptrend toward 2450 due to the high bullish volume
Bullish Scenario:
Stability above 2428 could extend the bullish trend towards 2441 and breaking of 2442 will get 2450 and 2466
Bearish Scenario:
Stabilization below 2420 could support a decline to 2408 and should break 2397
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 2428
- Resistance Levels: 2441, 2450, 2466
- Support Levels: 2420, 2408, 2379
Today's Expected Trading Range is between 2420 and 2466
Tendency: Bullish trend above 2428 - 2420
previous idea:
GOLD - Price can decline to support line of triangleHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price bounced from $2320 level and then entered to wedge, where it at once fell lower than support level.
After this, price in a short time rose higher than $2320 level, breaking it again, but soon fell back to support line of wedge.
Next, XAU made strong upward impulse to resistance line, breaking $2320 and $2430 levels, after which turned around.
Gold broke $2430 level and later entered to triangle, where it rose higher resistance level again.
But a not long time ago price fell back to support line, after which it bounced up and now trades close resistance line.
In my mind, price can reach and at once bounce down from resistance area to $2375 support line of triangle.
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HelenP. I Gold will correct to trend line and then rebound upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some days ago price rose until to the support level, which coincided with the support zone and even broke this level, but soon turned around and dropped to the trend line. Next, Gold rebounded from the trend line and quickly rose back to the 2355 level, broke it, and started to trades inside consolidation. In the range, the price some time traded near the 2355 level and then made a strong impulse up to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and even entered to this zone. Inside the resistance area, Gold reached the top part of the consolidation and even made a fake breakout, after which dropped to the trend line, which coincided with the support level, thereby breaking the 2455 resistance level. After this movement, XAU repeated this movement to the resistance area again, after which fell back to the trend line. Recently it turned around and started to grow, so, I expect that XAUUSD will correct almost to the trend line and then continue to grow to the 2455 resistance level. For this reason, resistance level it's my goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
How to win More Trades (Using Probability)I had a shit last 2 days so I am actually taking today off, I have some work to do on one of my cars so I am going to do that today.
This is also very important, taking a break when you aren't feeling that up to it.
But in this video we discuss probability and how probable any given scenario could be in your favor. If you aren't taking this into consideration you aren't doing what you are supposed to do.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar | Entry 2 : Short Position15m : Supply zone mitigated
1m : Took short position after 1m bearish confirmation
Note :
Enter any position only during kill zones
After the market enters a non-kill zone area, trail your stop loss to the entry point or the nearest mitigated order flow level
GOLD 4H / Gold Futures Rise Amid Positive Long-Term OutlookGold Futures Rise as Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Technical Analysis: Gold
Current Outlook: It tries to reach 2420, and the price will consolidate between 2397 and 2420,
Bullish Scenario:
Stability above 2397 could extend the bullish trend towards 2420 and breaking of 2420 will get 2428 and 2466
Bearish Scenario: Stabilization below 2420 could support a decline to 2408 and should break 2397 to be downward till 2387.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 2408
- Resistance Levels: 2420, 2428, 2450
- Support Levels: 2397, 2387, 2378
Today's Expected Trading Range is between 2397 and 2450
Tendency: Bullish trend Volume with some correction.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar | Forecast | Day Time FrameThe following technical analysis is truly based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) for intraday trading.
Day Time Frame :
Took all the buy-side liquidity and mitigated the supply zone.
It is likely to move bearish to grab the sell-side liquidity.
I will be posting a series of 15-minute kill zone entries. Keep an eye on this space!
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar | Entry 1 : Long Position15m : Demand zone mitigated and waited until candle confirmation in asian kill zone
1m : Took long position after bullish confirmation
Note :
Enter any position only during kill zones
After the market enters a non-kill zone area, trail your stop loss to the entry point or the nearest mitigated order flow level
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar | Selling Opportunity | 15m Time FrameDay Time Frame Analysis : Check the related idea tagged below.
15m: Wait for a buy-side liquidity sweep in any kill zone, then take a short position followed by a 1-minute bearish confirmation.
In the meantime, if there is any strong sell-side liquidity sweep in any kill zone, take a long position for the time being, followed by a 1-minute bullish confirmation.
Could price reverse from here?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could potentially reverse to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 2,378.49
1st Support: 2,354.61
1st Resistance: 2,421.83
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Fears Fail to Keep Gold Above $2,400: A Temporary Dip? Gold has slipped below the $2,400 mark even as geopolitical tensions possibly escalate, with Israel bracing for potential retaliation from Iran. US intelligence indicates the response could come late Thursday or Friday.
Market attention is also directed towards the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims data, due on Thursday, which investors hope will provide further information about the labor market.
Perhaps in an attempt to calm the volatility seen at the beginning of the week, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday that “none of the labor market indicators she looks at are flashing red at present ...”.
Perhaps adding to the downward pressure on gold, major Asian central banks appear to have paused their physical gold buying sprees. Reports from the World Gold Council indicate that China has abstained from buying the precious metal for the third consecutive month.
Technically, if the XAU/USD continues its downward trajectory, the next support level could lay at the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Average. Further declines could test the May 3 low of $2,277.
Gold Spot/U.S. Dollar | XAUUSD | ForecastBelow, the technical analysis is purely based on SMC concepts for intraday trading.
Day: Likely to move in a bearish trend (see attached image).
15m: There are multiple entries in the queue at each kill zone during liquidity sweeps.
Take the entries accordingly, followed by 1m clear confirmations.