Gold can make little movement up and then fall to 2115 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some days ago long time rebounded from the buyer zone, which coincided with the support level and rose to the 2085 level, thereby breaking the 1990 level. After this, Gold started to trades in a pennant, where it rebounded from the resistance line and in a short time declined to the buyer zone, which coincided with the support line of this pattern. Next, the price turned around and made a strong upward impulse from the support line to the 2085 level, thereby exiting from the pennant, and also soon, the price broke the 2085 level, which coincided with the support area. After this, Gold made retests and then continued to move up, and now the price trades higher than the support area. So, in my mind, Gold can make a little movement up, after which it will turn around and start to decline. Therefore I set my target at the 2115 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
F-XAU
Gold Soars to New Territory After Hitting New All-Time peakGold's ( TVC:GOLD ) rally has propelled it to an unprecedented price of $2,164.78, buoyed by expectations of easing policies from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Despite the ECB's hawkish hold, ECB President Christine Lagarde's openness to June adjustments contrasts with the rising US Treasury yields. On the other hand, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at reducing and increasing June rate cut odds amid cooling US labor market signs.
Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) witnessed an extension of the incumbent rally, hitting an all-time high and remaining on the path toward $2,200. The US Dollar tumbled across the board, as major central banks prepare to ease policy.
On Thursday, the ECB decided to hold rates unchanged and delivered hawkish remarks led by Lagarde. Even though she prepared a possible policy adjustment, she disregarded a possible cut by the April meeting, though June looks possible. US Treasury yields rose, sparking a pullback in yellow metal prices.
Across the pond, Powell appeared at the US Congress and reiterated yesterday’s speech. He said they would adjust borrowing costs and added the Fed was “not far” from being able to ease policy. Although he pushed back against a cut in March, the window is open for June’s meeting. Odds for a quarter of a percent rate cut in that meeting increased.
Yields on US Treasuries tumbled throughout the week with the 10-year benchmark note rate at 4.116%, down six basis points. Besides that, soft US economic data suggests the economy isn’t faring as solidly as expected. Americans filing for unemployment claims rose as expected by 217K, though this suggests the labor market is cooling, a consequence of tighter policies.
The US Dollar Index tumbled 0.48% and is at 102.85, its lowest level since January 24. This is a tailwind for the non-yielding metal. The CME FedWatch Tool shows odds for a 25-basis-point rate cut in June are at 73%.
Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari said that he expects only one rate cut if it’s appropriate as economic data remains robust. He put into the table the chance of keeping rates unchanged through 2024.
Technical Analysis
Gold's ( TVC:GOLD ) rally is extending past the psychological $2,150 mark and hit an all-time high at $2,164.78. Even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the uptrend is overextended, it makes it difficult for sellers to step in and push prices lower. On the other hand, buyers could step in, though they need a pullback towards the $2,150 area or the $2,100 mark, before targeting the $2,200 figure.
If XAU/USD drops below March’s low of $2,123.80, that would pave the way for a correction towards $2,100. If that level is surpassed, the next support would be the December 28 high at $2,088.48 and the February 1 high at $2,065.60.
XAU/USD 07/03/2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a swing BOS and subsequently a bearish CHoCH which is the first structural indication, but not confirmation that bearish pullback is underway.
Expectation is for price to pullback to H4 POI or 50% EQ before targeting internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
-> Has reached EQ.
Price has now printed a bullish swing BOS.
Swing high yet to be confirmed, therefore, we are trading within an internal range until we have confirmation of swing high.
Intraday expectation is for price to continue bullish to target swing high.
Price could potentially target M15 POI before continuing bullish.
However, request from HTF is for price to switch bearish to facilitate HTF pullback, therefore, a scenario is for price to target internal low.
M15 Chart:
#XAU #XAUUSD #GOLD #Short #ShortSetup #Eddy#XAU #XAUUSD #GOLD #Short #ShortSetup #Eddy
I'll Think Its Time to short Gold ;-)
In the monthly time frame, it looks like we have the third collision and the completion of the monthly divergence.
What you think!?
Related Analysis of Gold : (( XAU/USD )) : Check Link :
Gold: Risks after hitting all-time high?Gold: Risks after hitting all-time high?
Gold prices have been on the rise for the last six sessions, gradually approaching the December high of $2149.00. This recent uptick followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's reaffirmation that he thinks it would be sensible to consider reducing the Fed funds rate at some point this year, with the condition that there is increased confidence in inflation steadily reaching the 2% target.
Looking at the daily chart, gold currently sits comfortably above its main support, the 20-day moving average at $2041.00, making it susceptible to a potential reversal. Alos, Gold might be prone to downward pressure once the Euphoria from Jerome Powell's recent testimony fades, and the market realizes that the Fed is not actually in any hurry to lower interest rates.
Now, Spot gold is priced at $2,150.00 per troy ounce, hitting a new record high. Extremely overbought conditions have become more obvious.
Economists at ANZ Bank suggest that the primary driver behind the surge in gold prices is the Fed's shift from a tightening to an easing monetary cycle. They also anticipate that elevated geopolitical risks and central bank buying will contribute to pushing the gold price to $2,200 by the end of the year.
Interestingly, palladium has crossed the $1,000-an-ounce mark, recording gains of over 10%.
GOLD: Macro/Micro SR Fibonacci SchematicsHere we have every schematic for XAU-USD in 6 boxes. Every single box has a macro schematic along with a special set of Fib Forks for all. Some are more defined and visual than other ones. Let us examine this layout.
#1, #2, and #4 have the first three Fibonacci Spikes (In that Order)
#1 and #2 also have our closest micro supports stemming from 2016 and then 2022.
#3 and #4 have important extensions and forks as you can see easily.
#5 and #6 have one same pair of schematics but both boxes are different still.
Now we can infer about the support we see. We see support on #1, #3, and #4.
Then, see how we have resistance on every single one but it is at different levels. If any of these boxes link up on different schematics, we call this Fibonacci Clustering and it would be considered a more important level.
We can see a couple sets of Fib Clusters right off the bat in #1 and #2. Look at 2300 and 2400 and how both boxes have levels on both but are not the same schematics. This is a set of Fib Clusters.
#1, #4, and #5 have some as well at 2500. So we now see every resistance in this idea up to 2500. Once Gold decides to go higher, we will be exposed to the same fib levels higher and we will find the same phenomenon of Fib Clusters in the same boxes because they are all sequenced the same...
A larger macro view of XAU-USD is linked below.
GOLD $XAUUSD - Feb. 18th, 2024GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD - Feb. 18th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $2019 - $2072
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $1990 - $2019
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $1939 - $1990 (adjustable)
Overall on the high timeframes Gold is bullish with supporting structure. The daily timeframe recently broke out of a range to the downside, but is now heading back to a retest of the bottom level of the range (around 2019). Bulls can look for longs around the 2019 level as this would be the breakout area that would not mark this as a bullish trend again. Bears can look for entries: 1. as early as 2019 with a retest of the bottom level of the range and a rejection, 2. currently around the 2012 channel level, 3. but safely around 2001.5 as this was the start of the 4h bullish structure/momentum.
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Lean Bearish (until test of previous range bottom level)
4H: Bullish Momentum/Developing Bullish Structure/Bearish Channel
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
XAUUSD (Gold): Difficult to see anything stopping a retest Not much else to say here, there is not much getting in the way of gold at the moment.
Generally seeing dollar strength so I am expecting the high to be in sight, but do expect a retest of the 2150 mark now, looking at how bullish last week was.
HelenP. I Gold will make small move up and then decline to $2110Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. A not long time ago price declined lower than support 2, which coincided with the support zone, but soon it turned around and started to rise in an upward channel. Soon, XAU reached support 2 and broke it again, after which it made a retest and some time traded near this level. After this, Gold rebounded up and tried to rise to the resistance line of the channel, but failed and little declined, after which it continued to move up in the channel. Later price reached the trend line, after which XAU made a strong impulse up from this line to support 1, which coincided with one more support zone, thereby exiting from the upward channel. In a short time later, XAU broke this level, made a retest, and some time traded in the support zone, after which it rebounded up, but recently Gold made a correction movement to the trend line. And now, the price is traded near this line, so, for my mind, Gold will rebound from the trend line again, and then the price little rise, after which XAU can turn around and start to decline to the support zone, breaking the trend line. Therefore I set my target at the 2110 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
XAU/USD 06 March 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Bias/Analysis remains the as yesterday's analysis (05/03/2024)
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
-> Sub-Internal: Bullish.
-> Has reached EQ.
Price has printed a bullish sub-internal iiBOS and internal iBOS.
Most likely scenario would be for price to pull back which is the same for W and D1 following BOS'.
First structural indication, but not confirmation, would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue vertical dotted line.
H4 chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
-> Has reached EQ.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
We are now trading within an internal low and swing high.
Bearish CHoCH and internal low are located at the same position.
Price is currently in discount of EQ
Intraday expectation is for price to continue bullish to target swing high.
Price could potentially target M15 POI before continuing bullish.
M15 Chart :
Gold's RallyGold 's latest price action offers a gleaming outlook as it flirts with the pivotal $2131 mark, showcasing a vigorous attempt to redefine its all-time high (ATH). The provided chart underscores a narrative of a bullion ascent, mapping out the psychological and technical battlegrounds ahead.
All-Time High Resistance : The ATH, boldly marked, represents an untested frontier, the ultimate resistance level where past rallies have relented. A breakthrough would signify a strong bullish sentiment, potentially ushering in a new era for gold's valuation.
Resistance Levels: Just beneath the ATH, two lines are etched, derived from previous peaks in gold's price action. These lines signal where sellers have historically emerged, suggesting areas where the current rally may experience friction.
Support Lines: The bold blue line depicts the current robust support, validated by its historical performance to uphold price dips. The ascending line indicates rising buying interest at progressively higher levels. Conversely, the arrow pointing to a flatter, less pronounced line acknowledges a local, albeit fragile, support that could offer a temporary footing should prices retreat.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The histogram indicates decreasing bullish momentum as it dips below the signal line, suggesting that the rally might be losing steam.
As gold treads these levels, each resistance line is not just a barrier but a testament to the market's collective memory and sentiment. Traders should monitor how the price interacts with these levels, as breakouts or bounces could offer insights into the metal's next move.
In essence, the market seems to be balancing on the edge of enthusiasm and caution. A break above the ATH could beckon a new chapter for gold.
Gold making a bold move higher....As Bitcoin steals the limelight, gold quietly and gently breaks out AMEX:GLD #GOLD
Gold put in its first all time high for a daily close
This will likely end with an all time high by EOW or a highest ever weekly close.
Unfortunately, this leaves me with a conundrum as gold is a risk off asset and if we see a substantial increase, its possible it could be a signal of a risk off move from the liquidity sloshing around out there.
Funds have been allocating to bonds and money market funds as these lower risk fixed income assets provide an element of security during uncertain times and pay an interest yield. Gold offers protection and upside potential whilst providing additional protection against inflation.
In any event, it could be that we are due this long awaited move up for an asset class that has been moving in a relatively tight range since 2020.
The TA suggests the bullion bull gate may have just opened
Keep an eye folks,
PUKA
Gold Price Strengthens Ahead of Data-Packed WeekGold price (XAU/USD) hovers near a two-month high around $2,085 in Monday’s early New York session. The precious metal clings to gains amid increasing expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its June monetary policy meeting.
However, the uncertainty over rate cut expectations could rebound this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to comment on inflation, interest rates, and the economy in his testimony before Congress.
Jerome Powell is expected to remain hawkish as Fed policymakers want to see inflation easing for months before changing their monetary policy stance. Strong labor market conditions allow them to patiently observe inflationary pressures and cut interest rates only after there is convincing evidence that inflation will decline to the desired target of 2%.
Apart from Fed Powell’s commentary, economic data such as the United States’ Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and Nonfarm Payrolls data will remain in the spotlight.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures Greenback’s value against six major currencies, drops to 103.80, as the Manufacturing PMI surprisingly fell by 1.3 points to 47.8 from 49.1 in January. Investors had projected an increase to 49.5. The New Orders Index for the manufacturing sector fell back into contraction territory at 49.2 from 52.5 in January.
Daily digest market movers:
Gold price strengthens while US Dollar remains under pressure. Gold price trades closely to near the two-month high around $2,085 as investors’ expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the June policy meeting remain firm. As per the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a little over 53% chance for a rate cut by 25 basis points (bps) in the June meeting.
The expectations for rate cuts in June remain higher as the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for January came in line with market consensus.
In the coming days, the strength in the Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) price will be tested by the US ISM Services PMI and labor market data for February, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress.
Fed Powell is poised to speak on Wednesday and Thursday. His outlook on interest rates could influence market expectations for the timing of rate cuts. Powell may emphasize the need for more evidence to confirm that inflation will sustainably return to the 2% target.
Resilient labor market conditions have strengthened uncertainty about inflation returning to 2%. On Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said: "I am cautiously optimistic that we will see continued progress on disinflation without significant deterioration of the labor market.”
This week, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will provide a fresh outlook on the labor market. Before the official labor market data, investors will focus on the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data, which will be published on Wednesday. The expectations for fresh private payrolls are at 150K, higher than the prior reading of 107K.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar fell sharply as the weak US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February suggests the strong US economy is releasing some heat. Going forward, the US ISM Services PMI, which will be published on Tuesday, will provide more guidance on economic prospects.
Gold price rallies after an upside break of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern formed on a daily timeframe from the Trading view chart depicted. The breakout of the aforementioned chart pattern exhibits a volatility expansion, which leads to wider ticks on the upside and heavy volume. The precious metal could extend its upside towards the horizontal resistance plotted from the December 4 high at $2,144.48.
The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2,040, indicating strong demand in the near term.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00 currently at $74, indicating a bullish momentum ahead amid the absence of divergence and oversold signals.
Gold Continues to Destroy SellersSheep vs Wolves
Sheep Believe that selling at the highest possible point will be the best potential bet
Wolves wait for sheep to slip so that they can eat the sheep
The problem with the sheep mentality is, what are you basing the "highest point" on
How do you know that this is the highest point? Who told you that it was? What made you believe it is the highest point?
It's interesting > in the everlasting pursuit for the best potential sell at the highest possible point you may have lost 3+ trades simply trying to chase the rainbow to find the pot of Gold (pun intended lol)
How many sellers winning currently? If any at all?
I keep saying, it isn't that it is not going to sell > the question is, does it make sense for it to sell here? No it doesn't
Because in a world where everyone goes left, you job should be to figure out why? and you'd probably be better off with going right instead
Godspeed to all sellers at this point, the good news is I do see gold kind of slowing down, maybe you might get your chance, but I doubt it :\
And even if you do, was losing so many trades before you actually get your winner worth it?
Food for thought
I will be analyzing this trade in even greater detail in my newsletter (link in bio) Subscribe to that for free for more information or feel free to reach out to me for more information
Downvote\don't boost if you didn't read and didn't try to understand
OR
Upvote\boost if you did read and did try to understand
My trade is currently up 1:3+ and counting, and my stop loss is in profit at (2078) > Just under 1:2 (1:1.97exactly) Secured
Who you gonna believe sellers who guessing where the top is? Or????
Gold can rebound down from seller zone to 2050 levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago rebounded from the 2085 resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, and made a strong impulse down to the buyer zone, which coincided with the 1985 support level. After this, the price in a short time rose near the support line to the seller zone, making a fake breakout of a support level. After this, Gold bounced from the seller zone and started to decline in a downward channel, where it at once broke the support line and later continued to fall. Soon, the price reached the support line of the channel, after which it rebounded up to the resistance line and then made little correction from this line. But, after correction, XAU continued to decline and fell to the support level, after which the price at once made a strong upward impulse to the resistance level, thereby exiting from the downward channel. At the moment, the price continues to trades near the resistance level, and in my opinion, Gold can enter to seller zone, after which the price will turn around and start to decline. For this case, I set my target at the 2050 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
XAUUSD (Gold): In downward channelSeeing a downward channel so expecting further bearish bias from here.
Fundamentals seem to be supporting this too, with cease fire talks in middle east, and I'm expecting continued strength from the dollar this week, supported by the fundamentals news on Thursday and Friday.
We're posting HH and HL formation and expect this to continue through this week.
GOLD Short From Massive Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD surged up rapidly
Gaining almost 3% in 1 day
So Gold is clearly locally oversold
So we think that the bearish correction
From the horizontal resistance
Of 2088$ is quite likely
Sell!
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HTF Markup 4-8 Mar 2024 W10 - XAU, DXY, GBP, JPY, AUD, NAS, BTCThis is a Weekly post for several pairs showing HTF Markup only using Smart Money Concept (SMC) on Weekly, Daily and 4H Time Frames.
Feedback will be highly appreciated.
U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY
Weekly:
Daily:
4H:
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar OANDA:XAUUSD
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Daily:
4H:
British Pound / U.S. Dollar FX:GBPUSD
Weekly:
Daily:
4H:
U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen FOREXCOM:USDJPY
Weekly:
Daily:
4H:
Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar FOREXCOM:AUDUSD
Weekly:
Daily:
4H:
US Nas 100 OANDA:NAS100USD
Weekly:
Daily:
4H:
Bitcoin COINBASE:BTCUSD
Weekly:
Daily:
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🟡 GOLD Prices Rally: Traders Eye Bullish MomentumGold prices rallied as traders pushed the market higher, rebounding from a slight dip the previous day. Despite concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the precious metal remained within striking distance of a two-week high reached last Thursday. The US Dollar continued to weaken, influenced by declining US Treasury bond yields, which acted as a supportive factor for gold.
Technically, our long-term bias remains bullish, with the potential for a new uptrend contingent on the outcome of key economic data releases such as Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence. These indicators serve as leading indicators for production and consumer spending, respectively, highlighting their significance for overall economic activity.
Recent statements from the Federal Reserve, including the release of FOMC meeting minutes and comments from Fed officials, indicated a commitment to maintaining higher interest rates amidst persistent inflation and a strong economy. This stance could bolster US bond yields and the Greenback, potentially limiting aggressive bullish bets on gold.
In conclusion, we are inclined towards a long position on gold with a target set above 2045. However, readers should bear in mind that this is our analysis and not financial advice.
✅GOLD SWING SHORT🔥
✅GOLD will be retesting a resistance level of 2088$ soon
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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